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  17-Jan-12, 14:01   #1
Strategy or Luck 0 
KuzCOrp 
Joined: Feb '10
Location: Colombia
Age: 38 (M)
Posts: 1
many people have the strong conviction that poker is more strategy than luck, I for one think otherwise. Big Smile
who was not a past that having a strong hand, very strong lose to someone who simply bet that if perhaps he was bored and wanted to go and bet on an all-in with nothing, and when it reaches the river, we see that player ends up with a better game than we had, knowing that our chances of winning were 90% or more. Aww crap!
is quite frustrating to see how this happens, as we play following the best strategies we have been able to read and form our game. Disagree
I invite you to share with the community what they think, what percentage is luck and what strategy, and also to discuss the hands that have stopped looking to the ceiling. Shock

     
  17-Jan-12, 15:16   #2
  0 
Macubaas 
Joined: Apr '11
Location: Romania
Age: 27 (M)
Posts: 6668
On a single hand you can be the best player of all and you can still lose..

What it's sad it's true but it's reffering to a lot more time than one hand, so you always need to consider volume!

     
  17-Jan-12, 15:54   #3
  0 
Greenmohave 

Joined: Jan '11
Location: United States
Age: 52 (M)
Posts: 3361
I believe a player has to be patient for the long haul. One can easily look bad with any one hand or vice versa look good with one hand. I've folded many hands as everyone else knowing I made the wrong decision by the time you see the river card, but as stated above. You need to be there until the end if you want a chance at winning or at least placing in $$.

Only been playing a bit over a year, but have to believe I'm not to bad of player thanks to BRM and the Mobsters. I've learned a lot from reading here or in referenced material from the BRM forum.
Maybe I'm in left field on this thread, but Thanks to All!

     
  17-Jan-12, 16:41   #4
  0 
SuperNoob 

Joined: May '09
Location: India
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 4873
Posted by KuzCOrp:
what percentage is luck and what strategy

this question itself shows how badly you have misunderstood variance in poker Disagree

     
  17-Jan-12, 16:43   #5
  0 
awood88 
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 1881
Of course any single hand, any single tournament even can come down to luck but strategy gives you a chance to put luck on your side. If you know about maths and probability you have to concede poker is a strategy game since over a long period of time there should be no such thing as luck, on chance alone everyone would come closer and closer to breaking even. The fact that the same players can consistently win (enough to make a career out of it) proves that poker involves skill.

You may argue that skill is involved but that luck plays a huge factor. Well that is true of anything. In football, the best side doesn't always win. Certain weather conditions may favour one team, the luck of the bounce of the ball or a lucky kick may change the game but the better team should win more often, so in the long-term luck is cancelled out.

     
  17-Jan-12, 16:45   #6
  0 
MIGO14 
Joined: Mar '11
Location: Germany
Age: 47 (M)
Posts: 1235
For sure you can lose one or more hand because of bad luck in short terms.
But having knowledge and strategy will help you to be a winning player in the long run.
And thats what its all about...

     
  17-Jan-12, 18:37   #7
  0 
rbdflyboy 

Joined: Apr '11
Location: Canada
Age: 60 (M)
Posts: 1222
Good strategy is to make the proper calls with the correct odds to do so. If one loses the hand and have made the correct calls, then in the long run we should win more often. No one has control over which cards hit the board, it's the decisions we make to continue or not with a hand and at what street we made our hand that determined if we are long term winners. It's not uncommon to hit the nuts on the flop or turn and wind up with the second nuts at the river. Study outs and odds and always remember it's never profitable in the long run to be drawing to a one outer. Even with two outs one should discount one out to the muck and that leaves one out. If one makes it then that's luck if not it's simply a bad call.
All In is whole other realm and most of this goes out the window. Just because we have a higher probability to win with certain hands over other hands, as we know, will not guarantee a win...in other words we are never really quaranteed a win.
As far as assigning a percentage of luck vs strategy/skill...on any given session one or the other, can either work for or against us depending on the day. This concept doesn't apply in regard to my decision making process so I don't have an opinion here.
May all your decisions be correct ones...regardless of the outcome. Cool

     
  17-Jan-12, 19:11   #8
  0 
mahdrof 

Joined: Nov '09
Location: Canada
Age: 47 (M)
Posts: 2367
This is why proper bankroll management is so important. You can be the best player in the world, but if you buy into a tourney or cash game with your whole bankroll, all it takes is one bad beat with one out coming through on the river and it is time to reload. Playing sound strategy at a level you can beat with proper bankroll management should give you positive results in the long run.

     
  17-Jan-12, 19:37   #9
  0 
arthur72 

Joined: Mar '09
Location: Australia
Age: 44 (M)
Posts: 325
Posted by mahdrof:
This is why proper bankroll management is so important. You can be the best player in the world, but if you buy into a tourney or cash game with your whole bankroll, all it takes is one bad beat with one out coming through on the river and it is time to reload. Playing sound strategy at a level you can beat with proper bankroll management should give you positive results in the long run.


Amen to that one right there, Correct Correct Correct... Thumbs Up Thumbs Up Thumbs Up Worship Worship Worship Worship Worship Worship

     
  17-Jan-12, 19:40   #10
  0 
DaCapo71 
Joined: Aug '10
Location: Germany
Age: 45 (M)
Posts: 1700
Poker is a combination of boath. You can´t be a winner without luck. And sure, you can´t be a winner without skills longterm. Only for a few games you can run like a hreo without a plan Blink

     
  18-Jan-12, 03:32   #11
  0 
grahamy27 
Joined: Dec '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 707
well imo the game consists of both.

with online its completely different and i think it is 70% luck 30% strategy as you cant see your opponent and could be playin someone that plays every single hand no matter what he holds.
there is a lot of this in online poker (not saying people dont play like that in live poker)

with live poker i think its 85% strategy 15% luck as you can see your opponent, you can pick up little signs that your opponent doesnt know he is doing. physcology plays a big part in poker

someone could be sittin with the best hand and you can tell by his body language seem as someone who is bluffing. the luck part of live u can be sittin with 72 and make the best hand fold simply by being aggressive or using body language to manipulate your opponents thinking. if you understand the body language you can use that to your advantage and reverse your own body langusge to trick ur opponent into thinking you either have the best hand when u dont, or u have a bad hand when you have the winner.

but poker is now seen as a mind game which obviously means there is a lot of strategy to poker than plain old lady luck or gambling.

obviously its still gambling as money is being staked.

but thats my £s worth of input
Worship

     
  18-Jan-12, 04:14   #12
  0 
Serpang 
Joined: Jan '10
Location: Indonesia
Age: 53 (M)
Posts: 1476
you will find more answer if you read old threat at his forum and finally You have to make conclusion by yourself Smile

     
  18-Jan-12, 11:42   #13
  0 
Fakiry 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Portugal
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 4764
But that is one hand. Those are extraordinary cases. You talk like if you don’t believe mathematics! A player don’t have to know maths to play poker, but it helps a lot. Knowing that you have 90% chances of winning a hand is also to know that you have 10% chances of losing it! If you flip a coin you have 50% chances of guessing what side will be up. But it can happen to turn the same side up 3, 4 or even ten times in a row. And, in that case? Will you say the coin is rigged? Come on, a good player knows, when playing a hand, what can come up after starting playing it: even knowing the percentage he has of winning, the rest of the percentage is equal to the percentage he has of losing that same hand!

     
  18-Jan-12, 11:46   #14
  0 
Chartoule 
Joined: May '09
Location: Spain
Age: 41 (M)
Posts: 1261
Hi guys!!

In online poker the luck is 0% (you can play million and millions and millons of hands).
In live poker (with less hands played) i think luck is 15-20%

     
  18-Jan-12, 19:52   #15
  0 
DaCapo71 
Joined: Aug '10
Location: Germany
Age: 45 (M)
Posts: 1700
Poker is unlucky for the most players like casino games Big Smile The only sure winner is the poker- or casinoroom. The sucks eat your bankroll, the rake takes the rest...

     
  18-Jan-12, 22:40   #16
  0 
psycokiller 
Joined: Sep '09
Location: Canada
Age: 42 (M)
Posts: 776
Today I watched a hand played out between Patrick Antonious and Andrew Bobl in a PLO cash game. Patrick was a 3:1 favorite on the flop and Andrew raised all in. Obvously Patrick called. The table discussed it and ran the turn and river 4 times. Andrew came out the winner 4 times so yes, there is an element of luck in poker. The difference between luck and skill is clear, with skill, you should WIN by being on the favorite side of races over the long haul, while playing on luck, you will LOSE over the long haul be constantly being on the short end of the race. What this video proved is luck does exsist. Even Andrew Bobl knew he got away with murder on that hand since there was less than 1% chance of winning that hand 4 times being a 3:1 underdog post flop.

     
  18-Jan-12, 23:30   #17
  0 
Za250Z 

Joined: Nov '11
Location: Macedonia, The former Yugoslav Republic of
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 12
Put your money in when you have stronger hands then your opponents and you will never be worried about the luck factor, there is no such thing as luck.... the cards are in the deck the way they are!!!

     
  19-Jan-12, 07:37   #18
  0 
hulkborges 

Joined: Mar '11
Location: Brazil
Age: 33 (M)
Posts: 104
dude I think it is more strategic, with luck you can win a few hands, but can win tournaments so who has the ability, of course, has a share of luck in the middle, but much of it is player skill

     
  19-Jan-12, 15:28   #19
  0 
Macubaas 
Joined: Apr '11
Location: Romania
Age: 27 (M)
Posts: 6668
I also forgot to mention indeed that you need the respect the bankroll management all the times, if not you go broke very quickly indeed...

So, yes in the end it's all about volume and brm Blink

     
  19-Jan-12, 20:37   #20
  0 
DaCapo71 
Joined: Aug '10
Location: Germany
Age: 45 (M)
Posts: 1700
Today i saw a nice "strategy" in a HU game at Hollywood Poker. A Maniac makes a 3-bet and i reraise allin with A10 suited, because i saw he had a verry wide handrange. He called with 57 offsuit. And he wons with a pair of 7´s. Well played sir.

     
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