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  7-May-12, 01:01   #1
SAFE 0 
mreid123 
Joined: Oct '10
Location: Canada
Age: 26 (M)
Posts: 204
JUST CURIOUS but how much do u think it takes to crack that safe like seriously there are awfully lot of numbers roughly how much do u out into cracking it also what about the draws what u think u should put into that and lthe betting how is that used,,,,

     
  7-May-12, 01:09   #2
  0 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
Chances of cracking the safe are 999 to 1 (1/1000) as there are 1,000 different safe combinations.

If the safe is <$50 then it is negative EV - as each shot costs you 5c.

If the is exactly $50 - then its neutral EV - break-even money

If the safe is >$50 then it is positive EV - if you keep buyin shots every time the safe goes over $50 then you should ultimately make a profit. Although, this doesn't happen often enough and you're not allowed to buy enough shots at once, for this to be *really* exploitable.

Also - now that people win points and safe shots on the mob calendar - it's pretty rare to see the safe over $30.

Regarding the mob draw - it's pretty much always break-even money.. It's also great in that you win the exact amount you need to cash out - so if you've saved up 1000pts then I recommend jamming them all in the draw and hope for the best.

     
  7-May-12, 07:42   #3
  0 
pochui 

Joined: May '08
Location: Lithuania
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 8643
well said your chances of cracking the safe are small- but if you just go the free way- that is just take one shot a day- you have nothing to lose, and you just take 1/1000 shot...regarding buying additional shots, i doubt there is big reason for doing this, unless you form a gang Big Smile and you all buy enough shots to have 1000 goes at safe, but this is not very worthy in the long run, and besides someone can just crack safe at first attempt...

     
  7-May-12, 10:35   #4
  0 
Fakiry 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Portugal
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 4764
About the safe, there are 1,000 possible combinations, so if you buy 100 shots, you will have 10% probabilities in opening it. I ususaly only use my free daily attempt, but this might be a good strategy. You should define first which numbers do you want to try, either a range of numbers (from AAA to BBB) or a serie of combinations. And don’t forget: you should go for it all, using all the combinations in the shortest period possible, because if it happens for someone to open it while you are trying, or if the amount in the safe changes while you are trying, that means the combination to open it has also changed, and you have to start from the beginning.

     
  7-May-12, 11:24   #5
  0 
pokkerimees 
Joined: Oct '08
Location: Estonia
Age: 40 (M)
Posts: 384
I never bought safe shots. I did use my 50 or something i won, when it was 30$ in the safe. Bad thing is, when you win shots, that you cant use your daily free until you wasted you extra shots.
I tryed to use , but then my extra shots did get -1, so i didnt wait more

     
  7-May-12, 19:10   #6
  0 
Macubaas 
Joined: Apr '11
Location: Romania
Age: 27 (M)
Posts: 6668
Not sure why but many people that play the mob safe think it's something that you can control because it involves numbers but thats a mistake...

The mob safe it's a luck game, and the math has been made above. I mean it's something similar to the lottery Blink

     
  7-May-12, 19:14   #7
  0 
jomull57 

Joined: Apr '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 45 (F)
Posts: 438
i have won it one time with 50 safe shots . of corse ther is luck involved you could have 500 shots and start at 000 or start at 500 and work your way up one by one . if you pick the wromg one you wont win. the only way to win anything is to play as much as you can Smile

     
  7-May-12, 19:34   #8
  0 
Mober 
Joined: Mar '09
Location: Greece
Age: 39 (F)
Posts: 10039
There is a chance of not getting a hit, either you get a single shot or you buy more.
Of course you have more chances with more shots, but you will need to be lucky too.

If you notice about the draws, there are members that win often, with the free shots won at
the calendar.
Of course you may buy the max of shots for the draw(5000) and go for more than one prizes and
getting nothing at all (see jessthehuman Smile)

     
  9-May-12, 07:48   #9
  0 
mreid123 
Joined: Oct '10
Location: Canada
Age: 26 (M)
Posts: 204
its extreamly difficult all u need really is the points behind to make ur chances better im just gona stick to the draw i guess and try my luck with that Smile thx people

     
  9-May-12, 08:28   #10
  0 
SuperNoob 

Joined: May '09
Location: India
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 4873
Posted by jessthehuman:
Regarding the mob draw - it's pretty much always break-even money..

thats what i thought too before i noticed few weeks ago BRM deducts 10% rake when u buy tickets for the draw, making it EV-

     
  9-May-12, 09:07   #11
  0 
bullettooth1 

Joined: Mar '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 1635
WWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
whehey ive just cracked the safe.
i just bought 5shots and on my second one guessed it correctly Big Smile Big Smile Big Smile
im over the moon hehehe.
now....which site should i put my money on???

     
  9-May-12, 11:58   #12
  0 
Mober 
Joined: Mar '09
Location: Greece
Age: 39 (F)
Posts: 10039
Now what are the chances on that?
Buying only five tickets and winning with the second try Smile
And i see it was a nice amount.
Was your first number 500 and decided to try the numbers in row or it was
random picks?

Well done

     
  9-May-12, 13:54   #13
  0 
bullettooth1 

Joined: Mar '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 1635
Posted by Mober:
Now what are the chances on that?
Buying only five tickets and winning with the second try Smile
And i see it was a nice amount.
Was your first number 500 and decided to try the numbers in row or it was
random picks?

Well done

No. the first number i picked was 518, then i just chose 501 as i thought thats what it could be lol.
no real plan or thought process. just a lucky guess.
i couldnt believe it. it was great. hehe you'd think i won the lottery haha Big Smile

     
  11-May-12, 06:09   #14
  0 
geberchek 

Joined: Jan '12
Location: Indonesia
Age: 34 (M)
Posts: 30
i never crack the safe... always guess the wrong numbers..
yes, there's too much combination
wht we can do is only hope for lucky shots.. even that u have 1000 shots Blink

     
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