With 30+bb it might not looks like a great shove, but I thought once they had both raised 225 and called the pot was large enough and my odds good enough to shove.
Pot was 900 when it got to me and I figured there'd be at least one caller if not two from the betting giving me implied odds of 3:1 on any call and making me chip leader.
I elected to shove before the turn for maximum value.
The person with 88 made a donk call, the kjo was mildly acceptable.
I had 39% equity on the flop vs 59% - not ideal but enough to make this a solid play alebit not one I'd want to have to make many times.
Joined: Mar '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 44 (M)
Posts: 6714
You already say it "not ideal but enough to make this a solid play alebit not one I'd want to have to make many times." You have t play the long run. Its either solid poker or gambling, its up to you how you play.
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 1886
Am I reading this right? This is a 15$/30$ cash game and the play is this bad? Or is it a tournament?
I don't think you should be flat calling with JQ utg +1. It's a dangerous hand to play anyway cos any J high flop causes more problems than great hands but you definitely want to play it with some strength so you can get a better read on other players and so you can make it pay off on a board like 9 10 K. If you limp call JQ is exactly the sort of hand they'll put you on if you check-raise the flop.
When faced with a bet of about half the pot and call on that flop your options are pretty much fold or shove. calling to hit a diamond would be well below odds and would most likely give you a terrible spot on the river. But you don't have much fold equity in shoving. Any king is guaranteed to call (670 more with a pot of 1800) and you are way behind even if you have equity against a pair of kings. It then comes down to whether you want to gamble or play with less variance.
But also it's possible that either of your opponents had trips and this would reduce your odds further to make this an awful all-in. They even could have had a higher flush draw. This may seem unlikely but seeing as there has been a bet and a call, logic would suggest someone has a stronger hand. As it happens the bet and call all-in with 8s is ridiculous and the KJo is marginally better but very risky.
Joined: Mar '11
Location: Canada
Age: 44 (M)
Posts: 1490
Actually your equity is closer to 36% when the money goes in, definitely not +cEv, probably not +ev.
I'd like the raise OTF more if everyones relative stack sizes were deeper, as you get a lot more fold equity which may negate some of the disadvantage your at, but it's likely still a bad play since some of the time even when you make the flush, you won't have the nuts.
Also as mentioned, flatting pre UTG is pretty bad, either raise or gtfo. QJs is defintely a raiseable hand UTG.
Joined: Jan '10
Location: Indonesia
Age: 60 (M)
Posts: 1875
For me, your bet after flop just gambling. You said about probability , not mention about instinct. Didn't you trust your feeling ? even poker book had analysis about it. I am sure your bet and winning base on that. no probability, pot odd or implied odd
For my understanding, is this intended to be a squeeze play? If so, isn't you stack way too small to pull that off in this case?
I think I'm only capable of this move, when I've got both players easily covered, and my tournament life is not in danger, but theirs are.
It seems to me that its not hugely +EV (having 9 outs, you need about 3:1 odds (correct me if I'm wrong, I'm still learning this stuff...)).
I think I would have limped, like you did, but given it up against the pre flop raise (mainly because of poor position; if I had position I too probably would have called the initial raise), so I would have lost 30 chips.
You did significantly better; can't argue about that...
