How to make a bad ass call right before the bubble:
I must say this hand confuses me... I would have thought this to be either a shove or fold pre flop?
CSI < 6, high bubble factor...
If anyone would have shoved pre flop, you would have to fold, right? If you had shoved, only the big stack might have called (doubtful, after a limp calling for 25% of his stack), or the SB or BB with a monster.
I think I would have shoved pre flop, but then again, I also would probably have finished 11th...
Could you maybe explain the actions a bit, so we can learn? Or is it a "don't try this at home" play?
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Really right ( not good, lol ) decision. Like my comment yesterday at GM threat, we often need 'surprise luck' or similar to reach final table or win. For me, that just not analysis, but feeling or instinct make us do something like that. But no one ever mention about it in this forum, lol
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Posted by marqis:
Posted by jessthehuman: currently 10/14
Top 10 paid.
How to make a bad ass call right before the bubble:
I must say this hand confuses me... I would have thought this to be either a shove or fold pre flop?
CSI < 6, high bubble factor...
If anyone would have shoved pre flop, you would have to fold, right? If you had shoved, only the big stack might have called (doubtful, after a limp calling for 25% of his stack), or the SB or BB with a monster.
I think I would have shoved pre flop, but then again, I also would probably have finished 11th...
Could you maybe explain the actions a bit, so we can learn? Or is it a "don't try this at home" play?
OK, basically it was just a strange spot.
What really skewed it for me was Dangerous91210 limping in from UTG+1
It's just a weird move- and it can mean anything from "just some idiot with a marginal hand that doesn't understand he should be folding from EP" to "somebody trying to trap a shorter stack shoving, possibly holding QQ/KK/AA".
So, if it had just folded around to me, I would definitely just open shove- because I assume plenty of FE and probably some show-down value vs calls with hands like KQ, mid-PPs etc.
However - I don't really want to shove after the pot has a limper from EP - because they SHOULD have a hand that completely dominates mine, if they're getting involved from that position - and if it's one thing that fish absolutely love doing - it is limping AA and KK
So, I'm not folding either, because my hand is definitely worth seeing a flop with, so I just limp in as well (I'd never open-limp - but since it's already a limped pot, it's a viable option).
Then Vegas raises to 6k - the guy is a complete idiot - I've been watching him, I'm pretty sure I've got him covered - he's the sort of guy who probably doesn't really think about what an UTG+1 limp might mean. So he does that raise, Dangerous flats the raise????
Ultimately- there's always a possibility that Vegas has a monster - but probably not. Dangerous I just have NFI.
Either way though - I don't think I have any fold equity - If I shove - at least one of them is calling, probably both. So basically I'd just be racing and possibly completely dominated.
Vegas calls because he is an idiot - he either has a monster and snap calls, or has has some BS like QK, J10, etc and he'll still call the shove because he is dumb.
Dangerous on the other hand has a monster stack - he's already limped from EP then called a raise from sb - I doubt he is ever folding.
So - basically in my mind I have no fold equity. The way I see it - if I shove I'm basically just going in for a race and I didn't really want to do that with AJ.
However - the pot was already pretty juicy and I wasn't going to fold either - since I was getting great odds to see the flop and I knew there was no action following me - so it's not like somebody could reshove and f**k me up.
So that is basically why I made a weird call, given how short the stacks were.
There's not many spots where it's appropriate to call raises when you're short stacked. And I am not saying a shove would have been bad.
It's just that A) I think I had either no fold equity or close to none. B) There was a very good chance at least one of them had a better hand C) I was priced to call though, I thinking folding would be wrong, given the pot size.
Personally - I think the whole reason of shoving when you're short stacked is because you want to increase your equity by having *showdown equity and * Fold equity.
Without fold equity, shoving AJo can be a pretty bad move (i.e: it would essentially be a value bet/shove).
Nice play...also you have a good read with your opponent...late part of the tournament you will really experience strange hands....late double up is really good.......
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Nice call on the end.
those kinds of flops are so often blanking everyone and its unlikely someones limped with low end junk but it's still a brave call as a 5 in their hand gives them a straight and there's a vague possibility of suited 67 I guess but then it's quite unlikely they've hit a FH.
The bet on the end looks plain fishy although if they had a 5 it adds up, but in the circumstances I guess you had a good read on them and could rule that out.
The only other scare would be a better Ace, but then again you covered what the player images were like, so even thats quite unlikely. I think even if they had a 5 they possibly would have bet before the river too, a lot of people bet even inside draws quite strong.
Given the time you get to make a decision online that's one nice call - they tried to steal the pot with garbage and got punished and you ended up getting stacked.
I guess the odds weren't amazing to make the call on the end (3:1) but when you know the player you don't need great odds to call a bet that size.
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However you want to justify it, limping and then calling a small raise like that with AJo is super spewy when you've only got 12bb. I understand you're an MTT grinder, and seem to be pretty good. Got a lot of respect for you, and the advice you give here.
Still, a bad play is a bad play. Like I said, pre-flop was bad, and calling off the rest of your stack on that board is even worse.
Even with all the action pre-flop, a shove isn't a bad move, because it's going to push out anyone with half a brain and a weaker hand, and even if you get called, you're probably at worst a flip, unless like you said, UTG was trapping with a monster. You've got a TONNE more equity by shoving as opposed to how you played the hand. Especially since if you blank the flop, you really should have folded.
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Posted by retribution: However you want to justify it, limping and then calling a small raise like that with AJo is super spewy when you've only got 12bb. I understand you're an MTT grinder, and seem to be pretty good. Got a lot of respect for you, and the advice you give here.
Still, a bad play is a bad play. Like I said, pre-flop was bad, and calling off the rest of your stack on that board is even worse.
Even with all the action pre-flop, a shove isn't a bad move, because it's going to push out anyone with half a brain and a weaker hand, and even if you get called, you're probably at worst a flip, unless like you said, UTG was trapping with a monster. You've got a TONNE more equity by shoving as opposed to how you played the hand. Especially since if you blank the flop, you really should have folded.
Just my .02 though.
I disagree man. This hand was purely down to table dynamics and the read I had on vegas vs the read I didn't have on dangerous.
I don't think I had more equity by shoving - because I didn't have any fold equity at all. It was just a kinda shitty spot really- I bloody hate picking up a good hand to shove when short stacked and somebody in EP does something weird - as was the case here - with dangerous deciding to limp from EP. It makes it a lot hard to shove because I don't know why he has limped. however- I expected if I called the limp, by limping also - then we'd all just see the flop as a limped pot.
As I say - vegas had been doing a lot of dumb things - so his raise really wasn't all that meaningful - I think it was a very poor steal / squeeze.
Regarding calling the rest of my stack on the river - at this stage dangerous had already folded to vegas's bet. So that really narrowed down what I was calling.
If anyone had hit the board with all the low cards and draw possibilities I am pretty sure they would have put in a bet on the flop or turn to protect their sets/2-pair type hands against anyone completing a draw. It was far more likely that Vegas had decided to put in a raise with a couple higher cards.
So I did take about 40seconds to think it through on the river, before making the call.. In the end my reasoning was - he hadn't hit the board on the flop/turn because he would have just open shoved to protect his hand against any high cards coming on the turn/river. And I didn't think he would have an over pair - because if he did once again - he probably would have shoved the flop or turn to protect it against the straight draw.
So ultimately I was most likely facing two high cards that hadn't hit the board - much like my hand. Now - AQ/AK would obviously be a concern - however, I am pretty sure with AK/AQ he would have just shoved pre flop.
It's a pretty unusual hand - which is why I posted it. It's quite possible I played it quite badly. Although - I don't think the river call was bad - his hand was extremely polarised - if he had ANY showdown value (that wasn't a nut-type hand) he would check it down hoping to see show-down.
So by betting he was either value betting a really strong hand (which given the board and the fact everyone had checked every street) or he was air-ball bluffing. I think it was leaning more towards a bluff than a value bet and I was pretty sure as I said before, AK/AQ he would have just shoved pre.
Pre-flop, my play was definitely questionable. however- on the river I think my call was definitely correct.
for what it's worth - I think pre flop:
Limping was fine - because it was already a limped pot - and there wasn't many people still to act. Shoving - would be fine - but it's really difficult to put somebody on a hand when they've limped UTG+1
Then once it gets raised by vegas, I think the only two viable options are:
Folding Calling
I really don't like a shove after the raise - because there is no fold equity.
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Posted by retribution: Even with all the action pre-flop, a shove isn't a bad move, because it's going to push out anyone with half a brain and a weaker hand
This is the problem - vegas didn't have half a brain - he would have called, with whatever he was holding.
------------ Also - this was an unusual hand for me - as you can see in the hand I posted in the PKR FT thread for my Monte Carlo exit- I'm not afraid of the bubble and I don't make a habbit of limping / raising / calling raises when I am short stacked.
In fact - I go into shove/fold move a with a much larger stack than most people I encounter. Pretty much anything around 20bb or less I'll only shove fold.
But to all rules there are exceptions, they way this hand felt and played out the decisions a the time seemed right.. But hey - maybe they weren't and I just got very lucky.
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I think i would fold in that case. Doubled table with straight draw… Of course, when one wins the table all the others tend to say it was well played. I don’t know if it was, although it was a nice victory.
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Posted by jessthehuman: I don't think I had more equity by shoving - because I didn't have any fold equity at all. It was just a kinda shitty spot really- I bloody hate picking up a good hand to shove when short stacked and somebody in EP does something weird - as was the case here - with dangerous deciding to limp from EP
Well when it's your turn to act, there's only roughly what, 6.4k in the pot. Dangerous's stack is the only one with more than 15bb, with vegas barely having you covered and everyone elses relative stack size around 15bb as well.
You actually do have a lot of fold equity, as basically everyone left to act after you would either be crippled or out if they call your shove. Since it's so close to the bubble, you can assume no-one except maybe dangerous is calling you with anything but a premium hand. That right there gives you a TONNE of fold equity.
Really the only person you have to worry about is Dangerous, and his open limp DOES seem trappy, but at the same time you can also assume that given his stack size, he just feels he has some chips to waste. He's still likely to fold a significant portion of his range if you shove, so again you really do have a lot of fold equity. He's going to have to call off another 20k into a pot of 6.4k.
Posted by jessthehuman: This is the problem - vegas didn't have half a brain - he would have called, with whatever he was holding.
That's perfectly fine. If you know he's calling wide, then your shove is correct, as you're going to be dominating so much of his range. These are the weak players you know you should be exploiting by forcing them to make bad calls, instead of you being the one that makes a bad play.
Posted by jessthehuman: Then once it gets raised by vegas, I think the only two viable options are: Folding Calling
Folding is totally an option.
Calling is passive, and you're committing 1/4 of your stack in a 3 way pot with a vulnerable hand.
Posted by jessthehuman: I really don't like a shove after the raise - because there is no fold equity.
After you limped and vegas raised, absolutely you've got no fold equity, because now the pot has become so inflated, people with weaker holdings are getting better odds to call. This is why open shoving is better than limp/calling.
In this kind of spot, you don't want a multi-way pot. You want to take as much fold equity as you can, and at the very worst if you get called, you want it to be heads up, not 3-way or more as your odds of winning decrease exponentially. This is why you want to be the aggressor, to isolate.
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Posted by retribution:
Posted by doomdy: Imho Jess was drunk here
lol
IMHO he's almost always drunk.
Anyway - I will concede pre-flop was probably played fairly badly - I shouldn't have limped in - it's just difficult when someone from EP limps in because it's hard to work out there range.. But I should have either just shoved or folded pre right from the outset..
Once it was raised by vegas it just got weird - why? Because why didn't he just shove? I think his raise was a million times worse than my limp - I only limped because someone else had so it looked like it was gonna be a limped pot. Vegas should have either completed, folded or shoved.. When he done some weird small raise - I lost my Fold Equity, but was also pretty well priced in to call 1/4 of my stack.
Anyway - I will concede - I should have just either shove or fold and never called the limop.
Post-flop - I honestly think I made the correct call. The more you think about it - what is he value betting here? A tiny part of his pre-flop range would possibly be value betting that river. Pretty much any hands that connected with that board would have put in protection bets on flop/turn IMO.
Agreed, sometimes you make a bad play early in a hand but it doesn't mean the hand is over. Sometimes you have to improvise. A bad play in general isn't necessarly a bad play in the moment. They surely didn't put you on AJ there wich could've meant double up if they if they hit top pair with ace rag or KJ QJ 10J... And on the river the guy probably thought you wouldn't call with ace high wich might be the reason why he betted. Cause he thought he could make you lay down a better hand. (but yeah pretty bad play on his part)
