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Posted by retribution:
Posted by jovicakralj: You have 5 bb and big stack push from button. Plus you are already in money I guess. Yup, its clear call for me. If you dont get monster in next few hands you will be blinded out or get it in with worse hand.
Well it depends on what big stacks range is like. If he's uber aggressive(like he should be since he's big stack) then I think K10 COULD be a good call, since you'll be ahead of most of his range. Like I said in my previous post though, he'd have to be shoving around 45% to make it profitable, and even then it's pretty thin value. At least according to SNG wiz anyways. One shortfall the program has however, is it doesn't take into consideration what future rounds will be like so I can agree that it'd be a sound call if you disregard the ICM aspect(which sometimes is something you have to do).
The problem is, even if you make the call and win a flip, stacks will be around even and with blinds so steep, everyones still only got 10BB. Conversely, if you fold and BB calls, you'll double your prize and end up heads up, albeit at a significant disadvantage stack-wise. I still don't hate a fold here, as I'd rather be the shover than the caller with this kind of hand.
You can ask 1000 programs and if they all tell you its fold, 5bb 3handed buton push-K10 suited-use your brain and CALL
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Posted by jovicakralj:
Posted by retribution:
Posted by jovicakralj: You have 5 bb and big stack push from button. Plus you are already in money I guess. Yup, its clear call for me. If you dont get monster in next few hands you will be blinded out or get it in with worse hand.
Well it depends on what big stacks range is like. If he's uber aggressive(like he should be since he's big stack) then I think K10 COULD be a good call, since you'll be ahead of most of his range. Like I said in my previous post though, he'd have to be shoving around 45% to make it profitable, and even then it's pretty thin value. At least according to SNG wiz anyways. One shortfall the program has however, is it doesn't take into consideration what future rounds will be like so I can agree that it'd be a sound call if you disregard the ICM aspect(which sometimes is something you have to do).
The problem is, even if you make the call and win a flip, stacks will be around even and with blinds so steep, everyones still only got 10BB. Conversely, if you fold and BB calls, you'll double your prize and end up heads up, albeit at a significant disadvantage stack-wise. I still don't hate a fold here, as I'd rather be the shover than the caller with this kind of hand.
You can ask 1000 programs and if they all tell you its fold, 5bb 3handed buton push-K10 suited-use your brain and CALL
Well 1000 programs that are designed to calculate the Ev of a particular move aren't going to be wrong. On the surface we can agree it may be a marginal call, but the programs say it's more profitable to fold rather than call.
Joined: Apr '09
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It looks like one. If there was someone all-in and another player decides to call that all-in although he had less chips, that was a snap call. The caller believes he has the best hand and moves that way, there’s no other strategy in that move. If things go wrong for the caller, he will learn about the hand he played.
My answer to that: Poker isn't about predicting what's gonna come out, poker is about making the right moves at the right time. A10 is way too strong to be folded in such a situation.
Fakiry, there's nothing to learn if you lose the hand in this case because there's no tough decision and no post flop action... Once the chips are in the middle, the mathematics will decide, the results don't matter. What matters is making the right move at the right time (oops, I feel like I'm repeating myself )
Retribution, I don't see how this can be EV-. Maybe the programs calculate informations we don't have?
Edited by TheMachineQC (13 August 2012 @ 14:43 GMT)
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Posted by TheMachineQC: awood, u folded A10 3 handed with 5 BBs?
No you misread my post. I was talking about several hands during the final table where all players were short-stacked the whole time. I was either 5 or 6 handed when I folded A10 and I think utg went all-in with about 6bb and I had just over 7. Still a tough fold when you know utg could be shoving far less but I stand by my decision.
The point is that when everyone is short-stacked and itm, normal variance doesn't apply. It's not as simple as working out I have tens and he has AQ, therefore I'm favourite and it's +ev. Also, when you are short-stacked it is presumed you need to be very lucky to win and that there is very little skill in deciding when to move all-in, but playing short-stacked is very skillful and all about hard decisions. The reason a program can calculate it better is because there are so many variables such as number of players remaining, payout remaining, rate of blinds increasing, increased value of chips, chance of survival... and I'm not saying programs consider all these values or calculate efficiently but the maths is far more complicated than you could work out in the time it takes to play a hand.
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Posted by TheMachineQC:
Retribution, I don't see how this can be EV-. Maybe the programs calculate informations we don't have?
Exactly. There is no program that will tell you how to play without asking you to give informations. So in this case you need to put oponent on range. So, no matter what program tells you it still depends of what you personally think about oponents range. I cant understand why retribution still ''grinds'' 1,5$ SNGs when he have programs that calculate everything I mean, if you can find it all in programs just turn them on and beat 1k SNGs baby...
Just another thing about programs like pokerstove etc. For example, I tried to use pokerstove and I find it highly depending on what you think as a player. For example, you have xx hand and you need to see will call in that situation be profitable. So, you need to put opponent on range of hands he could have. If you put him on , lets say, 25% of hands its fold. If you put him on 30% its call. Now, how the f**k could you know in 5% difference what is his range. No way you can know! You can GUESS and that is not enough. You can say, OK, this guy want push here weaker then AQsuited and see that he have 76 off or 22 or whatever. Even I when playing do different things in almost same spot with same hand. I could not PUT MYSELF TO GOOD ENOUGH RANGE if I could play against myself. Not in 5% difference.
And, this is on top of everything 1,5$ game. So he can push 26 and he could open fold KQ if he ''really needs to be at least 2nd''.
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Posted by TheMachineQC: Retribution, I don't see how this can be EV-. Maybe the programs calculate informations we don't have?
Nope it takes opponent models(ie: average ranges) and calculates it vs your holding. It also calculates your fold ev vs your calling ev. As I stated in my previous post, I checked calling range vs a number of different models for not only shover but also the bb. As I've already stated, shovers range would have to be 45% for this to be a profitable call. BB's range would also have to be very wide. Given those 2 factors, based PURELY on ICM it's a fold plain and simple. I defy ANYONE here to be able to honestly say they can accurately calculate ICM in their head. I've also said it's a marginal call/fold as the ev for folding is something like .05% gained folding vs calling.
Jovi, I don't understand why you feel the need to make things personal when I don't agree with you? I've tried playing nice, but if your going to go back to picking fights with personal attacks, I have NO problem hitting the report button as you may know. Keep it civil or don't reply it's that simple. What I grind has absolutely NO relevance to the advice I'm giving. I've played literally THOUSANDS of 9mans, have you?
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if u fold the K10 and hope for bb to be knocked out so you'll just end up in 2nd, it can backfire completely whereas if u double up with k10 u might stand a chance for 1st... positive ev to call imo
what if u fold k10, dont pick up another hand and that BB guy ends up doubling, what u gonna do then? fold out to 3rd... nawh imo thats a huge final table mistake, k10 is a good call because if u double you can clear 2nd pretty easy and maybe even take 1st
I can't see any pro saying fold is good there, calling isn't great either but sometimes you just don't have a choice, and I think this is one of them. If the K10 wasn't suited, maybe you could THINK about folding, but actually doing it would be bad. In my opinion, there's nothing worst than losing 30% of your stack every 3 hands (+antes)... I hate those situations where you can't even play poker anymore. You're gonna have to shove or call a shove sooner or later, I'd rather do it with K10s than some J8 2 hands later. Atleast with any K high there's a good chance you're ahead.
Thing is, at those stakes, most players don't even know what a range is. In that particular hand, I think big stack's shoving range is probably more than 45%. The guy only made that move with 97 because he knew he could afford to lose 50% of his stack if he gets called (also he's probably gonna be live with those cards), and the blinds are definetly worth the risk. Also, if Sadam wins the hand, he also gets the other player's BB, and he goes from short stack to chip leader. (or so)
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big stack could also be just giving out free 2-1's trying to eliminate a player and jump pay rises, i know i do when i get bored haha sounds like the table was fairly tight except for big stack
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BTN should be shoving very wide here seeing BB has to call pretty tight. It's close but it's a call. The payout structure is unique as well because it's a flat structure (40/30/20/10),you gotta mention that next time.
About the discussion about ICM tools all I have to say is they do not value future EV while in this spot we can gain loads of future EV (we get the stacks even after having been shortstack by alot) so the range any ICM tool will give you isnt accurate in this spot
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The chipleader had three times your chips and two times the 2nd player’s chips, he wanted to see the tourney over, anda t this point he was playing with position, not being in the blinds and leading gave him the chance to rob blinds easily, not being much affected if things went wrong. But you played well.
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