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Do you accept the offer and bet that the next card is 6h?
 

  12-Sep-12, 03:18   #1
And the next card is... +4 
awood88 
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 1881
Before playing a game cards are dealt face up to determine who deals first. Imagine a brand new deck of cards is opened and shuffled. You see the person who has shuffled the cards place them in the middle of the table. Another player picks them up and reshuffles them to make sure they are well shuffled and then proceeds to deal out a card to each player. The cards in order come Ah 2h 3h 4h 5h. Another player who has not yet touched the cards stops the dealer and asks you if you would like to bet the next card is 6h. He offers you 46:1 that the next card is the six of hearts. What do you do?

Ps. This is my 21st daily poll/question in my challenge/experiment which means tomorrow will be 3 weeks since I started this mission to add some more interesting and different discussions in the forum. I wanted to make some original threads and see what interesting debates we could have. So how am I doing? Should I try and keep it going?

     
  12-Sep-12, 03:32   #2
  0 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
Well 46:1 is exactly even odds.. I would take the gamble, pretty sure even after a couple shuffles it's no that uncommon for some cards to remain in the original order. Seems to me it would be worth betting - since if the shuffles are good and it's just a coincidence, then it's +/- EV anyway and nothing to lose, but if the shuffles weren't quite 100% then you've got a little bit of value by making the bet.


Also +1 to more of these threads, seriously, good work Thumbs Up

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Also, I voted 'for a laugh', personally - I have quite a bit of 'gamble' in me and would definitely make the wager, just for fun if nothing else.

     
  12-Sep-12, 06:09   #3
  0 
retribution 

Joined: Mar '11
Location: Canada
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 1490
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if there's 5 cards on the board, then doesn't that mean there are 47 cards left, which means you have a 1 in 47 chance it's the 6h. That'd mean break-even odds would actually be 47:1 not 46:1. This would actually skew the odds slightly in the favor of the dealer.

Assuming this is correct, I think it'd be a -ev bet, albeit very marginally so. Being the nit I am, I'd likely pass on the bet, since you would end up losing in the long run.

Also, +1 for the interesting topics awood. It's refreshing to see some interesting discussions here for a change.

     
  12-Sep-12, 06:20   #4
  0 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
Posted by retribution:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if there's 5 cards on the board, then doesn't that mean there are 47 cards left, which means you have a 1 in 47 chance it's the 6h. That'd mean break-even odds would actually be 47:1 not 46:1. T


Incorrect

With 47 cards remaining in the deck that means there is 46 cards that aren't the 6h vs 1 card that IS the 6h

I.e; 46:1

That is why on a roulette wheel for example, if you bet a third of the board, you get laid 2:1 odds.. two thirds against your one thirds..

You're thinking of this, if there's 47 cards remaining then the chances of drawing the 6h is 1 in 47 or 1/47. However, that is not the same as 47:1

     
  12-Sep-12, 06:27   #5
  0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1631
Posted by jessthehuman:
Also +1 to more of these threads, seriously, good work Thumbs Up

I second that! I've said so before. They add value to the forum. Good quality questions.

For this one, I probably would, for a laugh; since you don't often get even odds for bets.

     
  12-Sep-12, 07:53   #6
  0 
lukasb 

Joined: Mar '11
Location: Croatia
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 1735
Would not bet on that one... that dealer is obviously taking cards from is sleeve lol.
Seriously now, would be amazed to see that sequence coming out a shuffled/re-shuffled deck and probably would take the bet just so i could later talk about it Tongue

What are the chances of getting that exact sequence anyway?

     
  12-Sep-12, 08:13   #7
  0 
retribution 

Joined: Mar '11
Location: Canada
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 1490
Posted by lukasb:
Would not bet on that one... that dealer is obviously taking cards from is sleeve lol.
Seriously now, would be amazed to see that sequence coming out a shuffled/re-shuffled deck and probably would take the bet just so i could later talk about it Tongue

What are the chances of getting that exact sequence anyway?


1 in 64,974. There's a way to calculate the odds, I believe it's factorals which is something like X / Y - 1 or to that effect. While I'm fairly good at basic math, factorals and permutations absolutely break my brain lol.

*Edit* wait, that's the chances of getting a straight flush. While the hand in question is a straight flush, it's not open ended, so the math while be way different. Will try and google and find the answer.

*Edit 2* The answer is 649,739 : 1. Exactly the same as a royal flush.

*Edit 3* To figure out the probability of any 5 card combination in a deck of 52 cards, the equation is: (1/p) - 1 : 1, where p is the probability.

Edited by retribution (Wednesday, September 12, 2012 @ 08:19 GMT)


     
  12-Sep-12, 08:24   #8
  0 
simon6 
Joined: Dec '10
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 63 (M)
Posts: 206
ok but arent u forgetting 1 major part of the dealing process of poker cards, the rng is supposed to replicate the live dealing process of the cards including the cards that are put aside before dealing the flop, 1 card is discarded and so on through the dealing process, ie another card being discarded before dealing the turn same with the river, I am only concerned with the card that is discarded before dealing the flop cards ok, but the card discarded before the flop cards are dealt and which way would this affect the 6h being dealt after the 5h, which of the betting odds does that benefit being that the possibility is that the 6h may still be next to the 5h in the deck when and if so it will be discarded anyway.

     
  12-Sep-12, 08:25   #9
  0 
Fakiry 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Portugal
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 4764
I would for sure go for a bet like that, i love maths and, knowing myself as i do, at that point i would already be in a state of curiosity that would pass the stratosphere. So, having someone proposing a bet at that point it would be awesome. This almost defines my way of being!

     
  12-Sep-12, 08:30   #10
  0 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
EDIT: This was in response to retributions last post.

^ Not quite, those odds I believe are for 5 specific cards, with no spefic sequence. To be dealt in that particular order it depends if you count the chances of the first card or not.

If you take the Ah as a given, then the chances of the next 4 cards, in order, being 2h, 3h, 4h and 5h then its 1 / 5,997,600 (1/51 * 1/50 * 1/49 * 1/48)

If you mean for the exact of odds of dealing, in sequence, Ah, 2h,3h,4h & 5h then its: 1 / 311,875,200 ((1/52 * 1/51 * 1/50 * 1/49 * 1/48)

For dealing in sequence A,2,3,4,5 of same suit, but any suit, then it's (((1/52)/4) * 1/51 * 1/50 * 1/49 * 1/48) = 77,968,800

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Posted by simon6:
ok but arent u forgetting 1 major part of the dealing process of poker cards, the rng is supposed to replicate the live dealing process of the cards including the cards that are put aside before dealing the flop, 1 card is discarded and so on through the dealing process, ie another card being discarded before dealing the turn same with the river, I am only concerned with the card that is discarded before dealing the flop cards ok, but the card discarded before the flop cards are dealt and which way would this affect the 6h being dealt after the 5h, which of the betting odds does that benefit being that the possibility is that the 6h may still be next to the 5h in the deck when and if so it will be discarded anyway.



OOooh Snap !

Forgot about discarded cards, doesn't change the odds, it's still a break-even bet..assuming all is random.. But now as you say, one could say if the shuffle isn't great then there's a greater chance 6h is discarded!

hehehe.. excellent.. I'd still take the wager, for laughs.


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No actually, a discarded card isn't likely to come into play, answered your post before re-reading Awoods.. There's no mention of a flop about to be dealt and also each player so far only has one card. Also, the bet specifically states the NEXT card, so no, I don't believe a discarded card is in effect here at all. The notion should be *discarded* see what I did there.

Edited by jessthehuman (Wednesday, September 12, 2012 @ 08:37 GMT)


     
  13-Sep-12, 20:27   #11
  0 
B1gfoot 

Joined: Mar '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 6714
I would rather offer this bet.
As I'm not going to get this offer many times to make it +ev I would haggle for better odds.
Loving the polls Worship

     
  13-Sep-12, 20:58   #12
  0 
Greenmohave 

Joined: Jan '11
Location: United States
Age: 52 (M)
Posts: 3361
It's been great as far as I'm concerned. The polls are not only interesting, but fun to see what catagory is doing the best (from a % standpoint). Don't stop now, it's becoming to be expected by several of us from the looks of things.

Anyway I would venture to guess the next card would not be a 6h since if you take a deck of cards it seems that one shuffles by splitting the deck and in a lot of cases the first 3 to 5 cards stay together. This is a guess, but I'm willing to take the bet that it would not be the 6h.

I still went with "for a laugh though".

     
  14-Sep-12, 06:53   #13
  0 
rbdflyboy 

Joined: Apr '11
Location: Canada
Age: 60 (M)
Posts: 1222
yes, indeed keep up with the polls. May not post in all of them although I enjoy reading the threads.
As for the bet, it's not really my thing..think if the 6h hit the very next card it wud be a fluke as with the 2h-5h. Can see this happening with a used deck that has been shuffled many times.. seen similar cards dealt say in a game of gin rummy where I was dealt 6 consecutive suited cards in a row. Doesn't happen often although it does occur.

     
  7-Nov-12, 08:02   #14
  0 
Meher123 

Joined: Nov '12
Location: Bangladesh
Age: 23 (F)
Posts: 29
Well if they are playing Texas Holdem the dealer would say only five cards on Flop sir Smile Blink

     
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