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  25-Sep-12, 02:35   #1
This is seriously unbelievable 0 

Joined: Mar '11
Location: Canada
Age: 39 (M)
Posts: 1490
Okay, so I'm not a rigtard, in fact I think they are morons. I believe poker has variance. If you're 80% to win, you WILL win 20% of the time. I accept that as part of poker, and can handle losing because I know in the long run I will win. But I just can't believe the downswing I've hit. I'm playing hypers on stars, and I KNOW I can expect some variance, due to the structure. But what I'm seeing is just mind blowing. I played thousands of these on FT, and NEVER experienced this kind of swing before.

Over 120 games, I'm DOWN 44 buyins, and it's just ridiculous how it's happening. Running AK into lower pairs and missing, running my mid PP into their K2 and them hitting their 3 outter over and over. It's just disgusting and the worst thing is, I'm down to only 25 buyins left.

F**k it, self excluded myself for a week. Going to take a week off poker.

Edited by retribution (Tuesday, September 25, 2012 @ 02:44 GMT)

Attached ImagesSS graph.GIF

  25-Sep-12, 05:00   #2

Joined: Nov '11
Location: Poland
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 1022
What can I tell... that's f**ed up... but yes, it happens

  25-Sep-12, 05:47   #3
Joined: Oct '11
Location: Sweden
Age: 27 (M)
Posts: 1279
Downswings like that are really bad but they're not unheared of. I think you just need to regroup and then come back swinging and you'll get your roll back up in no time. Selfexcluding yourself was a good idea I think. Creds to you for seeing what needed to be done and then actually made it happen! A lot of people, myself included, don't have the dicipline to actually do it. I know that's something I need to work on so I know how hard it is. Well done for you sir!! Worship Worship

  25-Sep-12, 05:58   #4

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 6482
hate to say it, but 44 buyins isn't THAT much for hypers/turbos. Recommended regular SNG brm is 50 buyins, I would say keep over 100 for hypers/turbos and be prepared to drop when you swing like this. Pretty standard, welcome to the real world.

  25-Sep-12, 07:22   #5

Joined: May '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 53 (M)
Posts: 1372
Hypers are just nasty things man. I know you think you have an edge in there I've seen your strategy posts regarding them, but maybe you should be asking yourself if you were just on an upswing.

Personally I detest hypers they just seem like a total crap shoot to me. Even if you're not playing them like a crap shoot 80% of the opposition are and that''s a recipe that can burn you badly.

Maybe, when you come back from the forced exclusion, you should just play some standard structured SNG's.

Edited by zeroster (Tuesday, September 25, 2012 @ 07:27 GMT)

  25-Sep-12, 07:50   #6

Joined: Nov '09
Location: Canada
Age: 49 (M)
Posts: 2386
I have had the same problem with turbo 6 person SNG on 888 since January. Usually these games were easy money but coin flips simply started to go wrong most of the time, and even if I was way ahead preflop, the villain would catch a lucky card on me a lot of the time. I took a two month break and am currently mixing in other forms of poker than just NLHE. GL

  25-Sep-12, 12:04   #7

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Portugal
Age: 39 (M)
Posts: 4815
You should consider, if possible, to decrease the buy-in amount you’re playing at this moment, or else you can be entering on bankrupcy. You don’t want to see your bankroll disappear so you can think about start it all over again with a new deposit, so I believe this is the main step you should take. If things keep running bad, consider the possibility to change from hypers into another scheme. Keep believing yourself.

  25-Sep-12, 14:32   #8
Joined: Sep '12
Location: Romania
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 1052
You forgot ? THIS IS JOKEEEEEERSTARS Big Smile you win less and lose all Aww crap!

  25-Sep-12, 15:01   #9
Joined: Aug '11
Location: Portugal
Age: 34 (M)
Posts: 232
lol crazy swing man, good idea to take a week off and comeback stronger! and with faith Sad
Just don't play with fear when you try it again plz.. you know their 3 outer will be sneaking right in the corner! GL getting it back sir

  25-Sep-12, 15:01   #10
Joined: Apr '11
Location: Philippines
Age: 41 (M)
Posts: 544
had that too last few days in betfair but i was playing cash games....the miracle card always hits the opponent....lost around 70 percent of my br....thats really part of poker...

  25-Sep-12, 17:49   #11
Joined: Apr '11
Location: Romania
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 6668
After such a downswing there is also involved some tilt for sure so i really think your decision to take a week off poker is a very good one Thumbs Up

Something similar happend to me with zoom, back on ftp i made serious money there but on zoom i had a good start and then a major downswing. After i heard the news that ftp will open again i cashout from stars.

  25-Sep-12, 19:07   #12
Joined: Jun '10
Location: Belgium
Age: 46 (M)
Posts: 1427
Sure it s a big downswing but I also noticed you did not win money before the downswing. (+/- first 300 games)
So I think if you re not making any profit out of 300 games it means you have to work a little on your strategy.
In the past I also lost several dollars playing rush at FT using a wrong strategy.

At the moment I play fastforward on partypoker and did some research on strategy. This works for me as I started with 10 dollars and now have 50 dollars.

  25-Sep-12, 19:18   #13

Joined: May '08
Location: Lithuania
Age: 34 (M)
Posts: 10089
i remember you told me that u need to complete 1000 games to get the real picture- so u r just almost halfway there. i think you should complete those 1000 games and then make the final decision- do you have an edge at them, should you continue etc. there's no point in stopping football match after 1st half

  25-Sep-12, 20:51   #14

Joined: Jan '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 1204
The big drop at the end of the graph suggests tilt but i don't know how the cards came down. It could be bad luck. I suppose you're the only one able to make a detailed enough analysis to snuff out the problem.

  25-Sep-12, 20:57   #15

Joined: Jan '11
Location: United States
Age: 55 (M)
Posts: 3361
I wish I knew more about this type of stuff and feel like I should. I mean, I've been t o school for statistics and my job includes overseeing product variation with Cp/Cpk reports, calculating standard deviations on dimensional characteristics, etc. Yet! When it comes to understanding some of the abreviated terms for poker I don't know what they are or how to go about analyzing my data to where it would be effective.

  25-Sep-12, 22:11   #16
Joined: Mar '09
Location: Greece
Age: 41 (F)
Posts: 13328
These hyper tournaments can be a disaster.
It only took a few losses on them in ipoker on low buy ins to stop me playing those Smile
I can handle the turbo games, but this type aint for my level, so i stay away.

After the week off, start with another type of game, to have a smooth landing Smile

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