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What is the highest % chance of winning with the current lowest ranked hand
 

  26-Sep-12, 01:09   #1
The best losing hand 0 
awood88 
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 1881
What is the highest probability you can have of winning a hand whilst still having a hand that ranks lower than every other player still in the hand? I'm talking odds based only on what cards are visible and not counting any situations where folded cards would effect the chances. Any street, any hands, any number of players, what are the best odds you can have with currently the worst hand?

You may need a poker odds calculator for this one

     
  26-Sep-12, 01:45   #2
  0 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
Not sure on exact answer, definitely over 50%. I know for sure that two over cards + FD is ahead of a made-pair. (On the flop obv)

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In PLO obviously it would be significantly better, since you can have an absolute monster of a draw that is miles ahead of any pair.

In NLHE I don't think you could be over 60%, but I'm not sure.. Good question.

     
  26-Sep-12, 01:53   #3
  0 
awood88 
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 1881
Yeah sorry I should have specified hold em. Just cos PLO is much more about drawing hands and specifying hold em makes it more interesting.

I can tell you that over 60% is definitely possible. I think I may have worked out the highest but I might be wrong. In any case I won't reveal my findings too early.

     
  26-Sep-12, 02:08   #4
  0 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
Interesting, I'm at work atm and can't really play around with odds calculators right now, should be a bit quieter soon though and I'll have a crack.

This is a good one.

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Very quickly I had a look and found one over 70%

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yeah 72.32% is my best so far

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The amount of times actually I've gotten into arguments actually about who had the better hand. For example being called a donk chasing a flush and sucking-out after being ahead with a big FD/SD + over cards vs a crappy pair.. And trying to explain that because two cards were still to be dealt I was actually ahead.

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Well I voted 70-79% since 72.34% is still my best.

Edited by jessthehuman (Wednesday, September 26, 2012 @ 02:25 GMT)


     
  26-Sep-12, 04:06   #5
  0 
mcedger 
Joined: Feb '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 39 (M)
Posts: 48
best i could get was 70.91% with 45ss against jh2d on a 6s7skc flop

     
  26-Sep-12, 04:22   #6
  0 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
Posted by mcedger:
best i could get was 70.91% with 45ss against jh2d on a 6s7skc flop



this is my best so far

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not sure why I put 72.34%, it's 72.32%

Attached Imagesdraw.JPG

     
  26-Sep-12, 12:41   #7
  0 
Fakiry 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Portugal
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 4764
A few years ago there was a very nice poker odds calculator that I’m almost sure it could give me the type of value you’re looking for. We all know that a AA or AK pre-flop have around 67% of winning on their side, so, about your question, I would go for the same answer everyone is giving, which means that it has to be more than this value, so, for sure, more than 70%.

     
  26-Sep-12, 12:52   #8
  0 
Doarulle 
Joined: Sep '12
Location: Romania
Age: 26 (M)
Posts: 1052
http://imageshack.us/f/821/47782574.jpg/ 95% pre-flop Sad Aww crap!

     
  26-Sep-12, 13:41   #9
  0 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
Posted by Doarulle:
http://imageshack.us/f/821/47782574.jpg/ 95% pre-flop Sad Aww crap!


why do you keep posting the same stupid beat in threads that have nothing to do with it? Have some respect.

     
  26-Sep-12, 19:23   #10
  0 
Macubaas 
Joined: Apr '11
Location: Romania
Age: 27 (M)
Posts: 6668
Pretty interesting stuff, i mean i do not have a odds calculator for nlhe just for omaha but it seems jess already did the simulation Smile

I must admit the result is pretty interesting and it basically shows why poker can have so different paths Big Smile

     
  26-Sep-12, 22:49   #11
  0 
Greenmohave 

Joined: Jan '11
Location: United States
Age: 52 (M)
Posts: 3361
This is one I'm trying to learn something from and so far I'm liking what jess has to say about it and fakiry. Everyone is apparently more up on calculating then me, but a great way to learn something.
Definitely enjoy the poll questions that you've been coming up with. Very educational!

     
  27-Sep-12, 00:45   #12
  0 
awood88 
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 1881
The best I've got so far is 76.83%

Remember any street, any hands, any number of players, as long as you have the lowest ranked hand .

     
  27-Sep-12, 02:16   #13
  0 
Serpang 
Joined: Jan '10
Location: Indonesia
Age: 53 (M)
Posts: 1476
Really nice chance. I surprise , do you always make documentary of all your interesting hand ?
How could you do that ? use holdem manager ? Do your skill improve with it ? ( make documentary or HM ? ) Did you analysis your play every time you finished the game or end of the day ?

Did you win that hand finally ? Smile Sad, if lost with 72% chance Smile

     
  27-Sep-12, 03:56   #14
  0 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
Posted by Serpang:
Really nice chance. I surprise , do you always make documentary of all your interesting hand ?
How could you do that ? use holdem manager ? Do your skill improve with it ? ( make documentary or HM ? ) Did you analysis your play every time you finished the game or end of the day ?

Did you win that hand finally ? Smile Sad, if lost with 72% chance Smile


It's not a real hand, it's just using a free odds website, you can put in any cards you like.

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Posted by awood88:
The best I've got so far is 76.83%



Interesting, I'll have to think harder !

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Posted by awood88:
Remember any street, any hands, any number of players, as long as you have the lowest ranked hand .


Hah, yeah OK - smashed it now, 84.52% and could be high if you keep following my pattern and add more hands.

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heh - should have reserved my vote !

Edited by jessthehuman (Thursday, September 27, 2012 @ 04:10 GMT)

Attached Imagespairs.png

     
  27-Sep-12, 09:47   #15
  0 
awood88 
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 1881
Haha. My odds calculator doesn't allow that many players but I did it a similar way.

     
  27-Sep-12, 11:18   #16
  0 
Mysik86 

Joined: Nov '11
Location: Poland
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 773
Posted by jessthehuman:

Hah, yeah OK - smashed it now, 84.52% and could be high if you keep following my pattern and add more hands.



OK, so we have winner Smile But what will be happen if you add last 10th player with 66 ?

     
  27-Sep-12, 12:40   #17
  0 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
Posted by Mysik86:
Posted by jessthehuman:

Hah, yeah OK - smashed it now, 84.52% and could be high if you keep following my pattern and add more hands.



OK, so we have winner Smile But what will be happen if you add last 10th player with 66 ?



It goes lower - like 82% or something, you would also need an 11th player with the matching 66.

     
  27-Sep-12, 13:44   #18
  0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1631
Posted by jessthehuman:
Hah, yeah OK - smashed it now, 84.52% and could be high if you keep following my pattern and add more hands.

Nice one!

Liking your idea, with a tiny variation, I got 87.19%

Edit: Even better 90.89%...

Fun stuff this!

Edited by marqis (Thursday, September 27, 2012 @ 14:02 GMT)

Attached Imagessshot-512.png sshot-513.png

     
  27-Sep-12, 22:12   #19
  0 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
Ahah! Good thinking! You found a way to use the 10th hand! 90% with the 'losing' hand, that is awesome.. Hehe, look at the poll, too many people (myself included) threw in their votes too early!

     
  28-Sep-12, 00:29   #20
  0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1631
Thanks... I liked your idea of blocking all other hands from improving.

I must say, the answer is somewhat amazing; it is totally counterintuitive that you can be > 90% favorite, with the worst ranked hand.

Luckily I hadn't voted yet...

This would be a nice question for a math contest, or something.

     
  28-Sep-12, 04:26   #21
  0 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
Posted by marqis:
Thanks... I liked your idea of blocking all other hands from improving.

I must say, the answer is somewhat amazing; it is totally counterintuitive that you can be > 90% favorite, with the worst ranked hand.

Luckily I hadn't voted yet...

This would be a nice question for a math contest, or something.


Yeah it would, I must admit, without really thinking about the answer that much when awood made the thread, there is no way I ever would have guessed it would be >90% that's seriously crazy.

     
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