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Joined: Sep '12
Location: Romania
Age: 33 (M)
Posts: 1052
Hello guys i think to challenge myself by starting with $10 or other sum and bet everyday only one match with 1.2 odds
1 day bet $10 and win $12 2 day bet $12 and win $14.4 3 day bat $14.4 and win $17.28 4 day bet $17.28 and win $20.73 5 day bet $20.73 and win $24.88 6 day bet $24.88 and win $29.85 7 day bet $29.85 and win $35.83 8 day bet $35.83 and win $42.99 9 day bet $42.99 and win $51.59 10 day bet $51.59 and win $61.91 11 day bet $61.91 and win $74.30 12 day bet $74.30 and win $89.16 13 day bet $89.16 and win $106.99 14 day bet $106.99 and win $128.39 15 day bet $128.39 and win $154.07 16 day bet $154.07 and win $184.88 17 day bet $184.88 and win $221.86 18 day bet $221.86 and win $266.23 19 day bet $266.23 and win $319.47 20 day bet $319.47 and win $383.37 21 day bet $383.37 and win $460.05 22 day bet $460.05 and win $552.06 23 day bet $552.06 and win $662.47 24 day bet $662.47 and win $794.96 25 day bet $794.96 and win $953.96 26 day bet $953.96 and win $1144.75 27 day bet $1144.75 and win $1373.70 28 day bet $1373.70 and win $1648.44 29 day bet $1648.44 and win $1978.13 30 day bet $1978.13 and win $2373.76
I ask you to post here the safest match like : (weak team) Rayo Vallecano 0 - 5 Barcelona (strong team)
Waiting for answers if it's worth starting this challenge and match with good odds.
I will post my evolution everyday if i start this challenge on 1st november
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 1886
I'm still not sure whether people can out-smart the sports bookmakers this way. I mean to bet only on safe matches the bookies will not give you good odds so you are betting that the probability of the winner is safer than what the experts think.
And if I understand the challenge is to bet it all and win 30 days in a row, which at 1.2 is not probable mathematically or a very good hit and run strategy. Although an individual could probably hit a super streak and get lucky, the longer the chain of bets the more likely you are to hit a loss and the bookmakers wins. It's like betting heads or tails with 5:6 odds, you are probability wise likely to beat the bet maker but if you keep betting it all you are going to lose with the longer chains.
Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 40 (M)
Posts: 6483
GL - Obviously chances are, as aWood pointed out, you won't get such a lucky streak, something will mostly likely go bust well before day 30. But awesome if you make it.
IMHO - the real challenge will be having the balls to continue for the last 5 days or so
Joined: Mar '12
Location: Netherlands
Age: 51 (M)
Posts: 617
trust me dude ,,,at the end you'll lose..
unless barcelona ends the season winning al games played...
and if you play other strong teams as well... the chances you'll lose increase...
this is all tested and done by others...
if poker is not rigged,,,soccer is rigged...just to much money involved..to be not rigged.
For example ,today in holland ajax played feyenoord and my hometeam got a red card by the referree for afoul made,,the funny thing is the referree was looking the opposite direction when the foul was made ,nevertheless he decided to give a red card for a foul he did not see...
endresult 2-2 draw,,while we were 0-1 up and dominating the game...
Joined: May '08
Location: Lithuania
Age: 39 (M)
Posts: 10090
on paper strategy looks nice- low initial bankroll and great end result! actually this is the way to go in terms that you basically risk "house money"- but in terms of probability, you are a huge underdog- what you are doing is basically same as having one accumulator with 30 events with 1.20 odds...do those a few times with min bets (or with demo bets) and you will see if the end result favors you...btw i would recommend trying to bet at 1.01-1.03 odds and picking sport where strong teams have real edge- like handball, basketball (and hope that match will not be "decided upfront"
Joined: Sep '12
Location: Romania
Age: 33 (M)
Posts: 1052
Total odds will be 237... 1.2³° = 237 of 30 matches, almost 5 matches / weekend + Champions League + Europa League :-?? i think i can try cuz all i can lose is $10 and few moms of angry... with $10 on 1.01 or 1.03 :-?? win 10cents / bet :-s really no sense, but if is sure why not ? any profit is good for me
Joined: Apr '09
Location: Portugal
Age: 44 (M)
Posts: 4827
The lower the odd the higher the percentage of that result to happen, this is the rule followed by the betting sites. They don't do things on the expectation of trying to trick those who bet. Imagine a HU with Blom vs me: they would have odds like Blom winning 1.001, me winning would be 7 or 15 (you can imagine this odd even higher if you want, i just didn't want to put such a big stain on my credibility). This way, they know they will have lots of people betting on Blom just because it's guaranteed return, and perhaps there would only be one bet (mine ) on me. The higher the odd the difficult that result to happen. Sometimes you see games with odds like: win A 2.20 tie 3.50 win B 2.60, which makes you think you can win by betting on both. This way you will be giving more money to the site and decreasing your profit, but risking on betting only in one will increase the risk of also loosing...
Joined: Mar '09
Location: Greece
Age: 47 (F)
Posts: 14136
Sorry to dissapoint you but you have no chance reaching final day Someone would think that bets like 1,15 or 1.2 or 1.3 are winners in general. Well, thats not the case. If you play often you will see, how many times such odds lose. You have more odds, by selecting games with any amount of odds in general, than picking the 1.2 and playing with it all the time.
Joined: Mar '09
Location: Greece
Age: 47 (F)
Posts: 14136
If he wants this to be a realistic goal, better try it with 10 days instead of thirty. Which is too many again if you ask me. You need to be extremely lucky to get this, and with only one shot at it, without putting any money aside......
Joined: Mar '09
Location: Greece
Age: 47 (F)
Posts: 14136
Look at what happened last night with Liverpool. Lost from Swansea 3-1 while they had them here with 1.35 odds and Swansea had 6.25. All you need is one of these games to mess up your challenge. And you will find lots of them every single week
Joined: Sep '12
Location: Romania
Age: 33 (M)
Posts: 1052
I can't start my challenge, because partypoker block my account when i withdraw... last night i bet $16 on : Juventus, Real Madrid, Bayern and Sahtior, won 28$... i bet real, not online... i'll update this thread when i found a promo for deposit on X site and bet...
This post by gimini-ro has been removed, probably due to not following the thread rules (as specified in the 1st post), or because it was spam or irrelevant to this topic.
Joined: Aug '12
Location: Slovakia
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 688
I tried something similar before. I started with 10euro and tried to double in always. And I said to myself when I will get on 80euro I will bet for 40euro always, never more. It looked like: 10x2 = 20 20x2 = 40 40x2 = 80 -until here it looked OK! then I lost 2 times in row and I had nothing
Joined: Oct '09
Location: Lithuania
Age: 43 (M)
Posts: 2805
no good idie becouse on days between 15 -20 the team will have foult and u ll loose your money easy so better choose combine 5 X 1.2 in one ticket and bet 10 -50 $ then putting your money every day at the danger good luck all
Joined: Mar '12
Location: Romania
Age: 34 (M)
Posts: 640
I actually believe it's a great idea , when you think about it , it's just a 10 $ investment , with a huge winning potential at the end of the month , one advice though , don't play on monster teams , like barcelona , real madrid etc , because sooner or later , they'll mess up !
Joined: Mar '09
Location: Greece
Age: 47 (F)
Posts: 14136
A cheaper bet than this and with a bet less than one dollar can win you hundreds of thousands But you have to be lucky of course. You just need to play draws. I once were playing 10 draws in random and the most i ever got was 7, and then i stopped But if you have tips for draws, it doesnt cost anything to add the extra games for an extremely high gain. Better this than keep playing for the above
Joined: Mar '11
Location: Canada
Age: 44 (M)
Posts: 1490
When it comes to sports betting, even a "sure thing" can get fucked right up if a player gets the flu, or otherwise gets injured. There's a lot more variables to look at that just odds.These can all skew whether it'd be a profitable long term bet.
At 1.2 to 1, you're barely above break-even odds wise. This equates to a profit of 20% every time you make the bet. Now based on what I know about odds vs probability from playing poker, you'd have to be betting on something that's statistically a big favorite in order for the bet to be profitable long term.
Unless I'm wrong your team would have to better than a 60% favorite in order for the bet to be profitable in the long run, which is the way you need to look at it. Take each bet ie:
1 day bet $10 and win $12 2 day bet $12 and win $14.4 3 day bat $14.4 and win $17.28 4 day bet $17.28 and win $20.73
And treat each one as it's own "coin flip" based on the team your betting on probability of winning that particular match.
Also factor in ties cause you to lose your bet, which skew the results in the houses favor. This is why I'm convinced that sports betting isn't a good way to win money, because bookers make the odds, and they've got hundreds/thousands of people who know their stuff, and how to juice the betters by offering them bets that are skewed in the bookers favor.
I
Edited by retribution (25 November 2012 @ 17:11 GMT)
