My check on the flop if for pot control, and to hide the fact I have an ace and to induce OTT.
My raise OTT is looking to pick up the nice pot as it stands
when it's checked to me OTR I'm not sure if I should value bet the to get paid from A-Q, or KK possibly or check down to win against the hands that couldnt call the river bet, or lose to slow played hands (not likely IMO)
Posted by WinAllDay: My check on the flop if for pot control, and to hide the fact I have an ace and to induce OTT.
My raise OTT is looking to pick up the nice pot as it stands
when it's checked to me OTR I'm not sure if I should value bet the to get paid from A-Q, or KK possibly or check down to win against the hands that couldnt call the river bet, or lose to slow played hands (not likely IMO)
I don't understand how not betting the flop constitutes pot control? All you're doing is giving away a free card for the villain to improve, while not getting any more info. And it looks like that's what happened, judging by his bet and call on the turn.
A decent size bet (3/4 pot) on the flop would likely take down the pot, and won't give any flush draws the pot odds to call. If he does call at least you can be reasonably confident on the turn he did not just complete a spade flush draw...
I would just check the river here; it's unlikely he'll fold when you move in here, unless he was completely bluffing, in which case your aces are good anyway, and you won't extract any more money. Calling will at least have the benefit of seeing what his cards were, and you won't bust out.
My check on the flop with TPTK is to disguise the fact that my hand is as strong as it is. I think a bet on the flop does take it down, but if i check the flop I can induce on the turn or if he checks the turn to me I can fire the turn and river.
Since he 3-bet me preflop I can never put him on a flush draw in this spot. Since the ace of spades is on the board and I have the king of spades the closest i think our tight villain can have to a flush draw is A-Q with the Q of spades. The next best would be QJs but this is not part of our villains 3-bet range. As played I think the spade on the turn is great for my hand. IT is a great bluff card and now I think QQ with Q of spades and JJ with J of spades will call 90% of the time since I checked the flop.
like i said, I expect this play to take down the pot on the turn often enough, There is the option for better hands than mine to fold because of the flush being a scare card, and there is a chance for worst hands to call like JJ with a spade, QQ with a spade, and if villain thinks I have a 10 with a spade then they may call JJ-KK without a spade. Also the slim chance my opponent has a set, I think he would RR or fold the turn, or lead out the river 100%
Its a weird spot that I think either my opponent is overplaying a premium hand, or he has me beat. The question is does he pay me off enough with the premiums enough to warrant a value push on the river
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I don't like your flop check - you say to disguise how strong your hand is.. Your hand isn't very strong, you have a pair only - TPTK - but still only a pair.. Bet here basically 100% of the time, giving away a free card is just a nightmare in this spot.
As played, check back river (which actually IS pot control).
If I c-bet this board I am 100% committed to this hand. If he check raises I think I am in a bet spot. If he flat calls and then jams the turn I think I am in a bad spot.
so I'm either taking this hand down on the flop, or being committed and getting stacked in level 4 of a tournament.
What I meant by pot control was that I could see the turn before deciding to commit to this hand.
I understand what you guys are saying but i dont think it's in my best interest to bet this flop. the only thing betting this flop accomplishes is that it gets the hands that I am beating to fold, and the hands that have me crushed will continue.
and as I explained, the spade is not even close to a scare card for me. because my opponent 3-bet from the small blind.
if you have QJs that is a call(or fold) from the small blind preflop not a 3-bet like Villain did, same with small pocket pairs and suited connectors.
his 3-bet range is something like JJ,QQ,KK,AA,AK, and maybe AQ and if you really want to stretch it let's say AJ. with this range there is no hands that have a flush draw on the flop since we know the As is on the flop and the Ks is in my hand. the only made flush is something that shouldn't be in his range. Since i have the K of spades I have all the 1 card flush draws crushed.
Lets Check my equity in pokerstove against the 3-bet range I defined above.
On the flop I have 80.53% against his range.
on the turn i have 87% equity
on the river i have 87.5% equity.
I guess it is a clear push on the river.
Edited by WinAllDay (16 November 2012 @ 01:38 GMT)
Joined: Apr '09
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Posted by WinAllDay: I guess it is a clear push on the river.
That fact you're ahead of his holding range doesn't mean you should push. You need to check your equity against his CALLING range if you shove the river..
Why push river?
How many hands you beat do they fold ? Do they EVER fold a hand that beats you?
You need to check your equity vs their river shove calling range - I don't think your equity there is that great. In this spot I rather just check because all the hands I beat are likely to fold to a shove anyway and all the hands the beat me call.
Posted by shokaku: Checking the flop for "pot control" but raising the turn makes no sense to me. On the river i would just check behind against most players.
On the turn I am happy to commit my stack so i made the raise for fold equity. the raise was enough that the only play on the river was jam. (or check back)
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Posted by WinAllDay: My check on the flop if for pot control, and to hide the fact I have an ace and to induce OTT.
Uh what. First off, you said villain only shows down premiums. What do you hope to accomplish by giving villain a free card. Your letting him draw free, and the only way your inducing anything, is if he improves his hand. OTT with the ace on board, only way he should realistically be betting is if he has you beat, so why let him do that free.
Honestly, I think your biggest mistake was pre-flop. 4-bet ship it and fist pump, you dominate so much in that spot, so why not just ship it and be done. Don't like your up-front raise either. Why raise less than 3x with blinds so small. These are all questions, but for some reason question mark isnt working :S
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One thing that I will state in support to jess is, the AK or in your casepair of A's isn't that strong of a hand as stated so why give villain a chance to see another card at no cost unless you were trying to trap, but the hand isn't strong enough for that. I'm not that experienced, but would have taken what I could after hitting the A's so I'd probably had bet large if not allin. Like I said my opinion's not worth a lot.
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just answering your question about the last action- i would check, here's why- the most you can squeeze out of him is probably a 1/3 of the pot (that is if he has a decent hand)- however you do not have a monster yourself so will you call if he reraises you, or goes all in? if you want this situation & intend on making the call then you can bet, if not i doubt there is any need to risk your chips for an extra 1/3 of the pot
Posted by WinAllDay: My check on the flop if for pot control, and to hide the fact I have an ace and to induce OTT.
Uh what. First off, you said villain only shows down premiums. What do you hope to accomplish by giving villain a free card. Your letting him draw free, and the only way your inducing anything, is if he improves his hand. OTT with the ace on board, only way he should realistically be betting is if he has you beat, so why let him do that free. [/quote]
What I hope to accomplish by checking this flop is to get the Villain to believe his JJ,QQ, or KK are good in this spot. If Villain had AK or AQ I think he leads this flop himself. There is a slim chance he is slow playing a set, but if i bet this flop he can jam on me and put me in a tough spot. Its also a good bluff spot for V to check raise the flop being the 1 who 3-bet Preflop
My check on the flop is to get V to stab OTT with JJ-KK to see where he is at in the hand. The only free cards I could give my opponent at this point would be a J, Q or K that gives him a set. I dont bet flops to prevent sets from drawing out on me. if a 2-outer is going to hit, It's going to hit hard.
V can never have a flush draw on this flop because of his 3-bet preflop from the SB. The ace of spades is on the flop, and this would make up 100% of a 3-bet range that can make a flush on this flop. Unless villain has exactly QJ suited and 3-bet that hand for some bizarr reason. I think QJ suited would be a call for V seeing how my open raise gave him more than enough odds. So im not really sure what free cards I am scared of? Even if villain is in the >1% range with QJ suited, I still have the NUT redraw on the turn.
QUOTE: Honestly, I think your biggest mistake was pre-flop. 4-bet ship it and fist pump, you dominate so much in that spot, so why not just ship it and be done. Don't like your up-front raise either. Why raise less than 3x with blinds so small. These are all questions, but for some reason question mark isnt working :S
I hate the idea of a 4-bet ship this early in the tourny. The only thing that can call this is QQ+ and AK+ which im flipping against. In level 4 of an amazingly structure tourny this jam is just to high variance for me.
as for my 'small' raise size. This is my standard raise size. for me to explain the raise size I need to explain my entire tournament strategy. Because the tournament structure is soo good (15 min blinds with every level included) that I adopted the smallball strategy. I take a lot of stabs preflop to attempt to steal blinds and i like to keep pots as small as possible until I am ready to commit my entire stack. This is exactly what happened on the turn, but the question i pose to BRM is do a follow throw and pull the trigger, or should i check behind and preserve my tournament life.
I Have had detailed conversations with a couple friends about PFR and c-bet sizing in MTTs. We discussed the concept that a 2.5x bet looks stronger than a 3x or 2x because the fact that you need to type numbers in to come to your raise size. Also risking 3BB for a return of 1.5BB is something that we felt was unneeded. With a raise between 2BB-3BB you are saving half a bet every time you get 3-bet. You sacrifice a little bit of value preflop but it saves chips in the long run.
Also when your raise size is over 2BB but less than 3BB I find that a lot of big blinds will flat call to see a flop, and check fold if they miss. So you are losing half a BB from the hands that would normally call you, but you are widening the already wide BB range to continue with trash which is more dead money in the pot. Anyways this is a whole different topic that could have it's own thread.
ALRIGHT, SO LETS SUMMARIZE
My check on the flop is to get V to think his premium pocket pairs may still be good, and there are NO scare cards that could come. I dont jam preflop because it is far to high variance this early in a tournament with excellent structure my PFR raise size is small because my play style dictates it be that way.
So back to the question, Do I jam this river or check back. Am I giving up to much value or am I playing a safe low variance tournament style this early.
