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  16-Dec-12, 11:22   #1
What do you think of poker more math or luck? 0 
AleksandrAV 
Joined: Apr '11
Location: Russian Federation
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 19
What do you think of poker more math or luck?

     
  16-Dec-12, 12:38   #2
  0 
antybiotyk 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Poland
Age: 33 (M)
Posts: 12
For me more math.
There are long discussions on this topic on different poker portals, but I saw lot of calculations from math teachers etc.
I also studied math and with proper play in long run you can be winning player. However you need to remember about bankroll management. You don't have to be math expert on small stakes, as for poker you need very basic knowledge. What's more online poker is even easier as there are lot of free tools that help to count equity etc.

Anoher thing is that even if you are not very good player you can still win by finding worse players then you. It' what I do at the moment, it's why I have account on few poker rooms as weak players appear on different hours on different platforms.
Even if in long run you usually finish around zero profit then you can earn some money from rake back. For example when I stop to play on one of the platforms, after few weeks I usually get some offers with 25-50% of rake back. Big Smile
In my opinion rakeback and good freerolls are one of the most important ways to build bankroll, for a beginners.

Edited by antybiotyk (Sunday, December 16, 2012 @ 12:43 GMT)


     
  16-Dec-12, 12:39   #3
  0 
ierons 

Joined: Feb '08
Location: France
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 111
The truth of the matter is, that with a little math you can be profitable with any deck, we are all just accustom to playing with 52 cards.

especially limit poker ...

limit poker is math. It's fast math with draws when you know you are behind, but it's also knowing when you are ahead. It's raising with a hand like 94o when you have a pair and know the other guy is betting into you with AK AQ KQ or some other such hand that they have fallen in love with.

     
  16-Dec-12, 12:52   #4
  0 
shokaku 

Joined: May '08
Location: Germany
Age: 51 (M)
Posts: 6230
This answer is simple:
If i win, it is because of my superior math skills. But if i lose, it is just bad luck.
A bit like the Hellmuth approach to poker. Blink

     
  16-Dec-12, 15:26   #5
  0 
teddybears73 
Joined: Nov '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 59 (M)
Posts: 3176
Posted by shokaku:
This answer is simple:
If i win, it is because of my superior math skills. But if i lose, it is just bad luck.
A bit like the Hellmuth approach to poker. Blink



well in that case i'm having a lot of bad at the moment,i'm just waiting for my superior math skills to kick in.
Big Smile

     
  16-Dec-12, 15:32   #6
  0 
pinku135 
Joined: Sep '12
Location: India
Age: 24 (M)
Posts: 335
Poker is all about math and skill !!

It implies for the calculation of the pot odds , implied odds , +ev , -ev etc ..... if a person can get the stats and math right he can turn out to be a good player, but even for every good player i think there is a small bit of luck is also required ..!!!

Poker = math (80%)+luck(20%) ,
all the above stats are as per my knowledge diff people have diff math !!!

Good luck at the tables Big Smile

     
  16-Dec-12, 15:39   #7
  0 
adikumasinac 

Joined: Jan '11
Location: Bosnia and Herzegovina
Age: 27 (M)
Posts: 31
more math but iIf you have no luck mathematics does not help: D Big Smile Big Smile

     
  16-Dec-12, 15:46   #8
  0 
fcumred 

Joined: Apr '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 47 (M)
Posts: 1238
There is a mix of both involved, and no player can rely on one or the other completely.

Anyone who says they get by on skill alone and doesn't need an element of luck is deluded.

     
  16-Dec-12, 15:52   #9
  0 
Serpang 
Joined: Jan '10
Location: Indonesia
Age: 53 (M)
Posts: 1477
Posted by adikumasinac:
more math but iIf you have no luck mathematics does not help: D Big Smile Big Smile


100% agree ! but time bank too short to do good math for me, especially when I tired. Should be more time to think. short time make us in hurry and disconnection problem at critical hand is very bad and make me worry.

another one : when you meet good player with good instinct math doesn't work, he possible play 93s !
so luck is important ! 60% skill 40% luck for me

     
  16-Dec-12, 20:18   #10
  0 
thefly131 
Joined: Jun '10
Location: Belgium
Age: 43 (M)
Posts: 1343
As poker is ranked asd a skill game, defenitely maths

You can be lucky and win by lick but on the long term yuo will get unlucky and loose...

Statistics is the basic rule for playing poker...

     
  16-Dec-12, 22:02   #11
  0 
justblazed1 

Joined: May '12
Location: United States
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 156
Posted by shokaku:
This answer is simple:
If i win, it is because of my superior math skills. But if i lose, it is just bad luck.
A bit like the Hellmuth approach to poker. Blink

I FEEL THE SAME LOL Big Smile Big Smile Big Smile

------------
Posted by adikumasinac:
more math but iIf you have no luck mathematics does not help: D Big Smile Big Smile

I ALSO AGREE TOO THIS Big Smile

     
  17-Dec-12, 03:51   #12
  0 
BeMyATMplz 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 1854
The question can't be answered because it depends on the samplesize we talk about...

If you talk about one single game (lets say a SNG for example) it's only a few % skill and the rest is all luck really.. if you talk about thousands of SNGs then luck is almost eliminated (extremely low chance of finishing in the negative unless your expected ROI is only like 2% or so).

That being said,mathematicly everyone has the same amount of luck.
Again,thats over the longterm (shortterm results shouldnt even be looked at if you're serious about the game)

     
  17-Dec-12, 09:14   #13
  0 
retribution 

Joined: Mar '11
Location: Canada
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 1490
I as well vote math over luck, because I've studied the game, played 100's of thousands of hands, and have run through the calculations myself.

The funny thing is, any serious/winning poker player will say it's math/skill, whereas any novice/uneducated player tends to believe it's a luck game. Case in point my girlfriend, her mom, my mom and pretty much anyone I talk to who doesn't play it regularly.

I've tried many a times to convince my girlfriend it's a skill game, but she still holds in the belief that it's luck, even though I've countless withdraws. I don't know how she can still argue it's luck, maybe she just thinks I'm really luck when I play. I don't think she really cares either way, as long as I keep buying her things with what I win lol. Big Smile Big Smile

     
  17-Dec-12, 11:03   #14
  +1 
remco2504 
Joined: Dec '08
Location: Netherlands
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 579
Posted by pinku135:
Poker is all about math and skill !!

It implies for the calculation of the pot odds , implied odds , +ev , -ev etc ..... if a person can get the stats and math right he can turn out to be a good player, but even for every good player i think there is a small bit of luck is also required ..!!!

Poker = math (80%)+luck(20%) ,
all the above stats are as per my knowledge diff people have diff math !!!

Good luck at the tables Big Smile



This is not true at all especially in the short run.
Just like BeMyATMplz says in the short run its almost all luck.

Only if you play constantly good solid poker you can get the edge in the long run.

If you play only a bit of poker sometimes its almost all luck.

If you grind 8 hours a day for months its much more skill

     
  17-Dec-12, 11:46   #15
  0 
BeMyATMplz 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 1854
Posted by remco2504:
Posted by pinku135:
Poker is all about math and skill !!

It implies for the calculation of the pot odds , implied odds , +ev , -ev etc ..... if a person can get the stats and math right he can turn out to be a good player, but even for every good player i think there is a small bit of luck is also required ..!!!

Poker = math (80%)+luck(20%) ,
all the above stats are as per my knowledge diff people have diff math !!!

Good luck at the tables Big Smile



This is not true at all especially in the short run.
Just like BeMyATMplz says in the short run its almost all luck.

Only if you play constantly good solid poker you can get the edge in the long run.

If you play only a bit of poker sometimes its almost all luck.

If you grind 8 hours a day for months its much more skill


That sums it up pretty well,I always see "casual" players complain about their bad luck,while in theory its all variance.
To even out the variance a grinder has in a couple days they need a month (by grinder I dont mean 50 SNGs per day or less),so of course it can happen that a casual player,even if he's really really good (say 10%+ ROI for a SNG player) to have losing months,because of the low volume they put in and thus the huge variance on time at least (even a 10% ROI player can easily have breakeven/losing stretches lasting for over 1000 SNGs).
Obviously every player who is good enough to achieve 10%+ ROI also has some understanding of variance and hourly rate and all that stuff so there is no such thing like a player who is really good but only putting in 10 games or so per day on average.

I for myself am a SNG grinder and I had only 1 losing month this year and in that month I only played 600 SNGs which is a very very low number for my standards.
Usually I play 2000 or more SNGs if my grind schedule goes as planned,one month I played over 4000 games and that was also by far the month with the most profits.
My ROI isn't very high especially at midstakes (I'd say I have an expected ROI of 5% or so at $15 SNGs) and the lower the expected ROI is the bigger the swings can get,so it's important to even that out as much as possible to make some $'s every month.
It's important what your $/game statistic says over thousands of SNGs,not after 1 SNG.
I often see people being super happy and proud when they win,say,a $7 45 player SNG.. they go like "OMG I made easy ~$80 bucks in just one game!!",while in reality even the best grinders at these stakes probably have a winrate of like $1.50/game at the max.
And then the casual player who is proud of his $80 win in one game is disappointed when the standard variance hits and all profit is gone again... and then obv. the site cheats/is rigged etc.,while it's just standard variance that is looking to get evened out.

That all applies to MTTs even more,there is a specific individual on BRM (will not be named) who is proud of winning a few thousands of $'s in a few MTTs and posting it every single time when he's getting to a FT or something.. however it's all luck and positive variance.. be up after 5K MTTs and you are a proven winner,getting a few FTs in a few days proves no skill at all (he's down over 8K in SNGs/MTTs still even with these MTT wins,I guess that's enough proof of "skill" Blink


Omg that got longer than expected Big Smile

Edited by BeMyATMplz (Monday, December 17, 2012 @ 11:51 GMT)


     
  17-Dec-12, 12:50   #16
  0 
3pokeronly 

Joined: Jul '12
Location: New Zealand
Age: 51 (M)
Posts: 233
There is a saying, "If not for bad luck, I would have no luck at all" this relates to good players with great math skill getting bad beats, you can not get away from all of them.

Poker is all maths, the best players are doing multiple calculations, estimates, running variable outcomes before even looking at the cards, they run the same calculations and possibly more if there is some action in front of them.

Most of the maths I do is based on tournament play, where position, table image, players left to act and how they are playing (loose/aggressive, tight/solid etc), my stack size vs average and vs those to act and vs cost per round (how long have I got, before I have to move) and then my cards are some of the variables, assigned and calculated pre-flop, a cash game has one other variable, the size of your roll, both on and off the table and you can always win a decent pot and walk away from a cash table, not an option for tournament play.

     
  17-Dec-12, 18:12   #17
  0 
pochui 

Joined: May '08
Location: Lithuania
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 8628
actually i think it depend a lot on what we are talking about: cash games & sng's imo are more math/skill- less luck, meanwhile mtt's (especially larger field ones) are more luck-less math/skill - take a look at some guys who won wsop me- 99% of their winnings come from winning this one tourney- they might never win any tourney in their career, and lose a lot of what they have earned...basically you can be lucky at one tourney & if it happens to be the "right" one- you can be a donk for the rest of your poker career & still show overall proft

     
  17-Dec-12, 21:47   #18
  0 
damosk 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 52 (M)
Posts: 4852
The general principle is math with luck attached. The starting premis is that of math. Most people make their decisions preflop. This is generally based on math as most people play according to the strength of their own cards. Once the flop arrives, the balance changes and while math still remiains improtant, luck starts to have a bigger say as you have no control over what cards are coming from the dealer. Also If you are all in, then the skill has gone and it is down to sheer luck!

My humble opinion!

     
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