Joined: May '11
Age: 28 (M)
i know i put my money in good but can any one estimate about what the odds were when the money went in, i have been in a couple spots like this lately and maybe on the off hand chance i actually was even money?
PokerStars Hand #94015500354: Omaha Pot Limit ($0.02/$0.05 USD) - 2013/02/14 0:31:31 ET Table 'Baucis V' 6-max Seat #6 is the button Seat 2: Betzla' ($8.39 in chips) Seat 3: @KAALUH@neet ($5.98 in chips) Seat 4: Tima 201211 ($3.83 in chips) Seat 5: JakeFauteux ($6.45 in chips) Seat 6: lagavul ($12.50 in chips) Betzla': posts small blind $0.02 @KAALUH@neet: posts big blind $0.05 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to JakeFauteux [5d 3s 5s 7s] Tima 201211: calls $0.05 JakeFauteux: calls $0.05 lagavul: folds Betzla': calls $0.03 @KAALUH@neet: raises $0.20 to $0.25 Tima 201211: calls $0.20 JakeFauteux: calls $0.20 Betzla': calls $0.20 *** FLOP *** [Qd Ts 5c] Betzla': checks @KAALUH@neet: bets $0.10 Tima 201211: raises $1.16 to $1.26 Nail NY joins the table at seat #1 JakeFauteux: raises $3.58 to $4.84 Betzla': folds @KAALUH@neet: folds Tima 201211: calls $2.32 and is all-in Uncalled bet ($1.26) returned to JakeFauteux *** TURN *** [Qd Ts 5c] *** RIVER *** [Qd Ts 5c 9c] *** SHOW DOWN *** Tima 201211: shows [8s Tc Jc Qh] (a straight, Eight to Queen) JakeFauteux: shows [5d 3s 5s 7s] (three of a kind, Fives) Tima 201211 collected $7.92 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $8.26 | Rake $0.34 Board [Qd Ts 5c 9c 8d] Seat 2: Betzla' (small blind) folded on the Flop Seat 3: @KAALUH@neet (big blind) folded on the Flop Seat 4: Tima 201211 showed [8s Tc Jc Qh] and won ($7.92) with a straight, Eight to Queen Seat 5: JakeFauteux showed [5d 3s 5s 7s] and lost with three of a kind, Fives Seat 6: lagavul (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
anyways if anyone was wondering it was only a couple minutes until i won my money back, the russian guy was on huge tilt so i had to isolate and gamble with him there otherwise id let in other people and my equity wouldve went dooooooown hill
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 32 (M)
Without resorting to an odds calculator...
Their outs were - 3 queens, 3 tens, 4 nines for 10 outs, plus running eights or jacks or running ace king... The 10 outs with two cards to come give them 40%, the running jacks or ace king would add 2% and the running eights would cancel off against your chance of running nines for a full house. So you were 58/42... Didn't notice if there were any backdoor flush possibilities, but that would sway it 1% one way or another. So at best, you were 59% and at worst 57%.
These are only rough calculations I've done in my head, so I expect to be put right by someone with an odds calculator real soon
You certainly got your money in ahead... But personally, I would have folded to pre flop raise.
------------ Oooops... Obviously should have been 2 queens and tens, not 3.... So it would have been around 65/35.
Edited by yout85 (Thursday, February 14, 2013 @ 08:15 GMT)
Joined: Dec '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 32 (M)
Posted by Jibberish: woot i am glad then that i did put my money in right, for a little i was poundering it to much and began to think it may have been 50/50 because i had bottom set
Actually only card that could really help you is a 5 and him not hitting again, he had gut shot and house draw on the flop, I think his % on flop would have been very high even with you flopping trips. If I was in your position I probably would have folded but that's me, I don't know what way guy was playing, you might have had a good read on him and just got unlucky. But me personally in that situation I would have folded
Posted by Jibberish: he was on major tilt, couldve give him any credit for even top 2 the table was sooo live. best thing about micro plo is its easy to make sick profits because if you can pick good tables the EV is ++
ultimately the best anyone can hope fro is to get their money into the pot with the best of it. After that luck becomes a factor. But if you had the best of it when your money went in over the long term you will come out ahead.
Joined: Apr '09
Age: 38 (M)
You were ahead after flop because you had a three of a kind and your opponent had two pairs. I guess you may have some apps available online where you can put both the hands and the cards of the flop to see those numbers you want, unfortunately I can’t look for that now, in the PC I’m using. But I guess it shouldn’t be that bad for you, although your opponent was in for lots of draws and had lots of outs too.