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  14-Feb-13, 05:47   #1
curious about percentage 0 
Jibberish 

Joined: May '11
Location: Canada
Age: 26 (M)
Posts: 979
i know i put my money in good but can any one estimate about what the odds were when the money went in, i have been in a couple spots like this lately and maybe on the off hand chance i actually was even money?


PokerStars Hand #94015500354: Omaha Pot Limit ($0.02/$0.05 USD) - 2013/02/14 0:31:31 ET
Table 'Baucis V' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: Betzla' ($8.39 in chips)
Seat 3: @KAALUH@neet ($5.98 in chips)
Seat 4: Tima 201211 ($3.83 in chips)
Seat 5: JakeFauteux ($6.45 in chips)
Seat 6: lagavul ($12.50 in chips)
Betzla': posts small blind $0.02
@KAALUH@neet: posts big blind $0.05
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JakeFauteux [5d 3s 5s 7s]
Tima 201211: calls $0.05
JakeFauteux: calls $0.05
lagavul: folds
Betzla': calls $0.03
@KAALUH@neet: raises $0.20 to $0.25
Tima 201211: calls $0.20
JakeFauteux: calls $0.20
Betzla': calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** [Qd Ts 5c]
Betzla': checks
@KAALUH@neet: bets $0.10
Tima 201211: raises $1.16 to $1.26
Nail NY joins the table at seat #1
JakeFauteux: raises $3.58 to $4.84
Betzla': folds
@KAALUH@neet: folds
Tima 201211: calls $2.32 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($1.26) returned to JakeFauteux
*** TURN *** [Qd Ts 5c] 9 of clubs
*** RIVER *** [Qd Ts 5c 9c] 8 of diamonds
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Tima 201211: shows [8s Tc Jc Qh] (a straight, Eight to Queen)
JakeFauteux: shows [5d 3s 5s 7s] (three of a kind, Fives)
Tima 201211 collected $7.92 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $8.26 | Rake $0.34
Board [Qd Ts 5c 9c 8d]
Seat 2: Betzla' (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: @KAALUH@neet (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: Tima 201211 showed [8s Tc Jc Qh] and won ($7.92) with a straight, Eight to Queen
Seat 5: JakeFauteux showed [5d 3s 5s 7s] and lost with three of a kind, Fives
Seat 6: lagavul (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)


anyways if anyone was wondering it was only a couple minutes until i won my money back, the russian guy was on huge tilt so i had to isolate and gamble with him there otherwise id let in other people and my equity wouldve went dooooooown hill Thumbs Up

poker is not rigged? Aww crap! Thumbs Down

     
  14-Feb-13, 07:47   #2
  0 
yout85 
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 2016
Without resorting to an odds calculator...

Their outs were - 3 queens, 3 tens, 4 nines for 10 outs, plus running eights or jacks or running ace king... The 10 outs with two cards to come give them 40%, the running jacks or ace king would add 2% and the running eights would cancel off against your chance of running nines for a full house. So you were 58/42... Didn't notice if there were any backdoor flush possibilities, but that would sway it 1% one way or another. So at best, you were 59% and at worst 57%.

These are only rough calculations I've done in my head, so I expect to be put right by someone with an odds calculator real soon Smile

You certainly got your money in ahead... But personally, I would have folded to pre flop raise.

------------
Oooops... Obviously should have been 2 queens and tens, not 3.... So it would have been around 65/35.

Edited by yout85 (Thursday, February 14, 2013 @ 08:15 GMT)


     
  14-Feb-13, 08:40   #3
  0 
Jibberish 

Joined: May '11
Location: Canada
Age: 26 (M)
Posts: 979
woot i am glad then that i did put my money in right, for a little i was poundering it to much and began to think it may have been 50/50 because i had bottom set Thumbs Up Cool

     
  15-Feb-13, 00:54   #4
  0 
grahamy27 
Joined: Dec '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 707
Posted by Jibberish:
woot i am glad then that i did put my money in right, for a little i was poundering it to much and began to think it may have been 50/50 because i had bottom set Thumbs Up Cool


Actually only card that could really help you is a 5 and him not hitting again, he had gut shot and house draw on the flop, I think his % on flop would have been very high even with you flopping trips. If I was in your position I probably would have folded but that's me, I don't know what way guy was playing, you might have had a good read on him and just got unlucky. But me personally in that situation I would have folded

Good luck at the tables

     
  15-Feb-13, 00:58   #5
  0 
Jibberish 

Joined: May '11
Location: Canada
Age: 26 (M)
Posts: 979
he was on major tilt, couldve give him any credit for even top 2 the table was sooo live. best thing about micro plo is its easy to make sick profits because if you can pick good tables the EV is ++ Thumbs Up

     
  15-Feb-13, 06:08   #6
  0 
Zen1004 
Joined: Apr '12
Location: Korea, Republic of
Age: 54 (M)
Posts: 244
Posted by Jibberish:
he was on major tilt, couldve give him any credit for even top 2 the table was sooo live. best thing about micro plo is its easy to make sick profits because if you can pick good tables the EV is ++ Thumbs Up


ultimately the best anyone can hope fro is to get their money into the pot with the best of it. After that luck becomes a factor. But if you had the best of it when your money went in over the long term you will come out ahead.

     
  15-Feb-13, 13:25   #7
  0 
Fakiry 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Portugal
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 4764
You were ahead after flop because you had a three of a kind and your opponent had two pairs. I guess you may have some apps available online where you can put both the hands and the cards of the flop to see those numbers you want, unfortunately I can’t look for that now, in the PC I’m using. But I guess it shouldn’t be that bad for you, although your opponent was in for lots of draws and had lots of outs too.

     
  15-Feb-13, 15:26   #8
  0 
djpremier 
Joined: Dec '10
Location: Finland
Age: 24 (M)
Posts: 419
I used an online equity calculator and it says the odds were 60.98% vs 39.02%

Not really sure how accurate this is but there's somekind of answer..

     
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