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  11-May-13, 16:03   #1
Seems I misjudged the variance Gods... 0 
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 33 (M)
Posts: 2052
So, I've just fed all the data from my failed challenge attempt into a program called tournament shark, which calculates your EV when you're all in. Throughout the challenge, i was all in a total of 112 times. My EV for those hands was 154% ie, I SHOULD have won 154% of the chips I put in. My actual return was 37%. Of the 112 times, I was favourite 78 times, but actually won 33... that's a shockingly bad discrepancy.

I am going to attempt this again next Saturday, but I will start with a higher bankroll to try and guard against such nonsense.

  11-May-13, 16:12   #2

Joined: Jan '11
Location: United States
Age: 54 (M)
Posts: 3361
Never have tried to use the shark scope or any of the software that calculates your EV, but was considering giving it a try sometime. After reading your post I'm re-considering. It appears there's a definite disadvantage in the calculations based on results.

  11-May-13, 16:58   #3

Joined: Mar '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 33 (M)
Posts: 1636
It's rigged, rigged I tell you Tongue
That is pretty shocking tho 37% when it should of been 154% Shock Disagree
Better luck next time bud Thumbs Up huge respect for the effort tho Worship

  11-May-13, 18:40   #4

Joined: Feb '08
Location: Ireland
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 638
ye thats terrible discrepancy ... but seems to be the way poker is going these days ... ive had terrible ups and downs lately its just so hard to beleive ... and im playing 7 yrs ... eg a raise pre ... i flop a straight in omaha H/L flop was A,J,10 rainbow i flop a straight ... i just push all in ... figure anyone with a set would call else i pick up nice pot ... both players call ... so looking to see who has two pairs and set or up and down str draw .... cards turn over one had gut shot and needs a K ... and also hit a J for a pair of Js and im like u call for that lol .. other worse had a A with 6 as his highest kicker and i cant even imagine what he called for .... so turn comes a low diamond ... now gives gutshot chaser a flush draw and lad who hit A a low draw ... and bet u can guess river ... another low diamond ... so now i get dumped out of tourney as one lad hit a miracle flush and other hit a low out of nothing lol lol

and these are the types of hands i keep getting busted out of tourneys from ....
anyway nothing can be done about it so just have to hope when i do cash i earn enough to cover all the mtt i bust out of because of these types of hands

  11-May-13, 18:47   #5
Joined: Apr '13
Location: Canada
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 333
that's bad for you... sorry bro but what can we do about those poker gods! They can love you 1 day and then destroy you the next one Sad

Good luck for your next week challenge

  11-May-13, 18:59   #6

Joined: Feb '12
Location: Canada
Age: 58 (M)
Posts: 5915
Well obviously Poker isn't a monotheistic religion,....or so they would have you think....

A 'variance' god....? lol...

There should then be a 'bingo' god...

...a 'chicken' god....

...a 'bluffer' god....

...a 'bully' god...

...one god each for the 'flop, turn, and river....'....

...one who manages the chips.... lol


Or it's just ONE poker god havin' fun messin' with peoples' heads.... Big Smile

...OH!!! I almost forget.... a 'Melon' god..... lol... Worship

  11-May-13, 20:09   #7

Joined: Dec '12
Location: Bulgaria
Age: 41 (M)
Posts: 1022
I am very sorry for you, mate! Don't worry about it. Thanks for the efforts, for the threads and next time you will make it better! I am sure! Smile

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