Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 38 (M)
Posts: 2064
So, I've just fed all the data from my failed challenge attempt into a program called tournament shark, which calculates your EV when you're all in. Throughout the challenge, i was all in a total of 112 times. My EV for those hands was 154% ie, I SHOULD have won 154% of the chips I put in. My actual return was 37%. Of the 112 times, I was favourite 78 times, but actually won 33... that's a shockingly bad discrepancy.
I am going to attempt this again next Saturday, but I will start with a higher bankroll to try and guard against such nonsense.
Joined: Jan '11
Location: United States
Age: 60 (M)
Posts: 3361
Never have tried to use the shark scope or any of the software that calculates your EV, but was considering giving it a try sometime. After reading your post I'm re-considering. It appears there's a definite disadvantage in the calculations based on results.
Joined: Feb '08
Location: Ireland
Age: 53 (M)
Posts: 638
ye thats terrible discrepancy ... but seems to be the way poker is going these days ... ive had terrible ups and downs lately its just so hard to beleive ... and im playing 7 yrs ... eg a raise pre ... i flop a straight in omaha H/L flop was A,J,10 rainbow i flop a straight ... i just push all in ... figure anyone with a set would call else i pick up nice pot ... both players call ... so looking to see who has two pairs and set or up and down str draw .... cards turn over one had gut shot and needs a K ... and also hit a J for a pair of Js and im like u call for that lol .. other worse had a A with 6 as his highest kicker and i cant even imagine what he called for .... so turn comes a low diamond ... now gives gutshot chaser a flush draw and lad who hit A a low draw ... and bet u can guess river ... another low diamond ... so now i get dumped out of tourney as one lad hit a miracle flush and other hit a low out of nothing lol lol
and these are the types of hands i keep getting busted out of tourneys from .... anyway nothing can be done about it so just have to hope when i do cash i earn enough to cover all the mtt i bust out of because of these types of hands
huge respect for the effort tho 
