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  22-Aug-13, 06:17   #1
lucky 0 
vatopkr 
Joined: Jan '13
Location: Ecuador
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 14
What percente of poker is lucky ? Smile

     
  22-Aug-13, 07:00   #2
  0 
IceQueenAce 
Joined: Feb '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 40 (F)
Posts: 2196
0%

Poker is about variance, not luck

     
  22-Aug-13, 08:08   #3
  0 
Zen1004 
Joined: Apr '12
Location: Korea, Republic of
Age: 54 (M)
Posts: 244
Posted by IceQueenAce:
0%

Poker is about variance, not luck


Seriously, this has to be the least helpful reply I have ever seen. All you are doing is quibbling over semantics. Both terms are used to refer to randomness.

Whatever, You choose to call it, luck or variance. The effect depends on whether you are talking about a single hand , a tournament or multiple tournaments. On a single hand the effects of a randomness is huge decreases over the course of a single tournament is much much smaller if yu are talking about multiple tournaments but never disappears completely.

     
  22-Aug-13, 09:05   #4
  0 
IceQueenAce 
Joined: Feb '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 40 (F)
Posts: 2196
Posted by Zen1004:


Seriously, this has to be the least helpful reply I have ever seen. All you are doing is quibbling over semantics. Both terms are used to refer to randomness.

Whatever, You choose to call it, luck or variance. The effect depends on whether you are talking about a single hand , a tournament or multiple tournaments. On a single hand the effects of a randomness is huge decreases over the course of a single tournament is much much smaller if yu are talking about multiple tournaments but never disappears completely.


Incorrect.

Luck and variance are completely different things.

Luck is just that, luck. Purely based on chance, a coin toss.

Variance is based on odds.

For instance, play 100,000 and you would get AA every 220 hands roughly. That isn't luck. That is odds. That is variance.


Variance is the opposite of randomness.

     
  22-Aug-13, 12:00   #5
  0 
Zen1004 
Joined: Apr '12
Location: Korea, Republic of
Age: 54 (M)
Posts: 244
Posted by IceQueenAce:
Posted by Zen1004:


Seriously, this has to be the least helpful reply I have ever seen. All you are doing is quibbling over semantics. Both terms are used to refer to randomness.

Whatever, You choose to call it, luck or variance. The effect depends on whether you are talking about a single hand , a tournament or multiple tournaments. On a single hand the effects of a randomness is huge decreases over the course of a single tournament is much much smaller if yu are talking about multiple tournaments but never disappears completely.


Incorrect.

Luck and variance are completely different things.

Luck is just that, luck. Purely based on chance, a coin toss.

Variance is based on odds.

For instance, play 100,000 and you would get AA every 220 hands roughly. That isn't luck. That is odds. That is variance.


Variance is the opposite of randomness.



Try looking up the meaning of variance in a dictionary and then perhaps you will realize you don't know what you are talking about.

Variance comes from the root word "VARY" and basically means for something to vary from an expected outcome. The reason things vary is that it is random or basically the luck of the Draw on what comes up next.

What you described is simply statistics.

     
  22-Aug-13, 12:25   #6
  0 
IceQueenAce 
Joined: Feb '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 40 (F)
Posts: 2196
Variance is the 'vary' in the statistics Tongue

------------
In other words it is the odds varying from long term statistics. Over the long term these will average out.

With luck though, there would be no evening out due to it not being based on odds

Edited by IceQueenAce (Thursday, August 22, 2013 @ 12:32 GMT)


     
  22-Aug-13, 17:54   #7
  0 
sergejcho 
Joined: Jun '13
Location: Macedonia, The former Yugoslav Republic of
Age: 63 (M)
Posts: 530
Posted by IceQueenAce:
Posted by Zen1004:


Seriously, this has to be the least helpful reply I have ever seen. All you are doing is quibbling over semantics. Both terms are used to refer to randomness.

Whatever, You choose to call it, luck or variance. The effect depends on whether you are talking about a single hand , a tournament or multiple tournaments. On a single hand the effects of a randomness is huge decreases over the course of a single tournament is much much smaller if yu are talking about multiple tournaments but never disappears completely.


Incorrect.

Luck and variance are completely different things.

Luck is just that, luck. Purely based on chance, a coin toss.

Variance is based on odds.

For instance, play 100,000 and you would get AA every 220 hands roughly. That isn't luck. That is odds. That is variance.


Variance is the opposite of randomness.



Nice said lady , u catch the point 'WHAT LUCK IS" in poker Smile

     
  23-Aug-13, 06:37   #8
  +1 
Zen1004 
Joined: Apr '12
Location: Korea, Republic of
Age: 54 (M)
Posts: 244
Posted by IceQueenAce:
Variance is the 'vary' in the statistics Tongue

------------
In other words it is the odds varying from long term statistics. Over the long term these will average out.

With luck though, there would be no evening out due to it not being based on odds


You previously stated that Variance is the opposite of randomness. That would mean that a player would get get AA exactly ever 220 hands and never get AA two hands in a row.

Once again I recommend using a dictionary before you embarrass yourself further.

Ever set of hands dealt is what is known in statistics as sampling with replacement. Which means that before the players' hole cards are dealt all the cards a replaced and dealt from a 52 card deck.

Assuming an honest game, each card is unique and randomly distributed. So each players hole cards are randomly determined for each deal and will VARY in a predictable manner dealt over an arbitarily large sampling of hands. This is where the concept of variance comes from.

Likewise for the cards dealt for the board. The combination of hole cards plus the board will be better for one player than the others. This is where luck comes in. It's an emergent property of the cards being randomly determined and having them benefit each player differently. For luck not to exist either the cards are not determined so their is no variance or the player doesn't care whether the they win or lose.

Is that simple enough for you. Perhaps you would like to move on to the point of my first point that your initial reply was you being a D**K by ignoring the point of the first posters question. The fact that your reply was an "EPIC FAIL" just made it funny/sad.

     
  23-Aug-13, 07:41   #9
  0 
IceQueenAce 
Joined: Feb '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 40 (F)
Posts: 2196
Maybe I am just fed up with fish like you claiming poker is about luck?

TBH you posted a load of dribble which is in effect, wrong.

There will always be a debate about what percentage of the poker game comes down to skill and what percentage can be attributed to luck. When looking at the effect of variance in online poker it is more useful to look at this with the effect of time included.

1 Poker Hand – Chance predominates
100 Poker Hands – Skill begins to have an influence
1000 Poker Hands – Skill now the single biggest factor
10000 Poker Hands – The effect of chance now minimal
100,000 Poker Hands – The effect of chance now all but gone.

Variance in poker will always have an effect in your game. Understanding how this influences play and the fact that skill is the most important factor over time will help you to make your poker games more profitable.

     
  23-Aug-13, 10:54   #10
  0 
Zen1004 
Joined: Apr '12
Location: Korea, Republic of
Age: 54 (M)
Posts: 244
Posted by IceQueenAce:
Maybe I am just fed up with fish like you claiming poker is about luck?

TBH you posted a load of dribble which is in effect, wrong.

There will always be a debate about what percentage of the poker game comes down to skill and what percentage can be attributed to luck. When looking at the effect of variance in online poker it is more useful to look at this with the effect of time included.

1 Poker Hand � Chance predominates
100 Poker Hands � Skill begins to have an influence
1000 Poker Hands � Skill now the single biggest factor
10000 Poker Hands � The effect of chance now minimal
100,000 Poker Hands � The effect of chance now all but gone.

Variance in poker will always have an effect in your game. Understanding how this influences play and the fact that skill is the most important factor over time will help you to make your poker games more profitable.



Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain. You are now on ignore go make an A*S out of yourself somewhere else.

     
  23-Aug-13, 11:01   #11
  0 
IceQueenAce 
Joined: Feb '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 40 (F)
Posts: 2196
Posted by Zen1004:

Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain. You are now on ignore go make an A*S out of yourself somewhere else.


You can't win so put me on ignore?

Nice

     
  23-Aug-13, 13:01   #12
  0 
Zen1004 
Joined: Apr '12
Location: Korea, Republic of
Age: 54 (M)
Posts: 244
Posted by IceQueenAce:
Posted by Zen1004:

Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain. You are now on ignore go make an A*S out of yourself somewhere else.


You can't win so put me on ignore?

Nice


I shouldn't feed the troll but FYI anyone that doesn't know the difference between "Dribble" and "Drivel" isn't having an argument but just regurgitating things they have heard in the hope that others won't notice that they have no idea what they are saying.

Seriously, invest in a dictionary so that you don't look such a pathetic loser in the future.

     
  23-Aug-13, 13:05   #13
  0 
Arty182925 
Joined: Oct '12
Location: Croatia
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 257
there isnt luck in online poker, its just how many russians-ukraines(and similar) you can beat. More russian you beat more money you will get lol. From experience, russians have "russian luck"

     
  23-Aug-13, 16:29   #14
  0 
Zen1004 
Joined: Apr '12
Location: Korea, Republic of
Age: 54 (M)
Posts: 244
Posted by IceQueenAce:
Maybe I am just fed up with fish like you claiming poker is about luck?

TBH you posted a load of dribble which is in effect, wrong.

There will always be a debate about what percentage of the poker game comes down to skill and what percentage can be attributed to luck. When looking at the effect of variance in online poker it is more useful to look at this with the effect of time included.

1 Poker Hand � Chance predominates
100 Poker Hands � Skill begins to have an influence
1000 Poker Hands � Skill now the single biggest factor
10000 Poker Hands � The effect of chance now minimal
100,000 Poker Hands � The effect of chance now all but gone.

Variance in poker will always have an effect in your game. Understanding how this influences play and the fact that skill is the most important factor over time will help you to make your poker games more profitable.


By the way I have never claimed the poker is just about luck. I said that the combination of random events in which a person has an interest creates value judgements on the event being good or bad for themselves. The common terminology for this is to describe it as having good or bad luck.

If their is no randomness there is no luck if their is no value judgment of the event being good or bad for oneself there is no luck.

I have never mentioned skill because this was a discussion on variance and luck not skill.


     
  25-Aug-13, 02:33   #15
  0 
sergejcho 
Joined: Jun '13
Location: Macedonia, The former Yugoslav Republic of
Age: 63 (M)
Posts: 530
I still belive that in poker u need some luck , maybe with shuffle ,maybe with position where u are seated , maybe with dealer , however i understand when somebody tell u are lucky and u have lucky in cards game etc... And on the end we allways say GOOD LUCK! Smile

     
  25-Aug-13, 02:50   #16
  0 
uno1Bomber 

Joined: May '13
Location: Russian Federation
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 541
I can tell you what is the luck:
The luck is:
- when you find golden things(I did, true)
- when you hit the royal flush 5 times by row ( Just example of MegaLuck)
- when your parachute didn't open and you still alive
- when you can make mistakes and win anyway, just because you're lucky
- etc.

------------
Posted by Zen1004:
..
I shouldn't feed the troll but FYI anyone that doesn't know the difference between "Dribble" and "Drivel" isn't having an argument but just regurgitating things they have heard in the hope that others won't notice that they have no idea what they are saying.

Seriously, invest in a dictionary so that you don't look such a pathetic loser in the future.


Boring and rude
Thumbs Down

Edited by uno1Bomber (Sunday, August 25, 2013 @ 03:36 GMT)


     
  25-Aug-13, 07:11   #17
  0 
rbdflyboy 

Joined: Apr '11
Location: Canada
Age: 60 (M)
Posts: 1222
Posted by uno1Bomber:
I can tell you what is the luck:
The luck is:
- when you find golden things(I did, true)
- when you hit the royal flush 5 times by row ( Just example of MegaLuck)
- when your parachute didn't open and you still alive
- when you can make mistakes and win anyway, just because you're lucky
- etc.

------------
Posted by Zen1004:
..
I shouldn't feed the troll but FYI anyone that doesn't know the difference between "Dribble" and "Drivel" isn't having an argument but just regurgitating things they have heard in the hope that others won't notice that they have no idea what they are saying.

Seriously, invest in a dictionary so that you don't look such a pathetic loser in the future.


Boring and rude
Thumbs Down



...and a certain degree of luck winning coin flips for large pots at key times in tourneys...in the end the board determines the outcome.

     
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