Joined: Sep '13
Location: Bosnia and Herzegovina
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 1564
Posted by Phisix: 3: When does so called variance turn into general bad luck?
depends ive heard some people being on the bad side of variance for months (no really, months of active daily play) but ur luck does have to turn around at some point. Until that happens, just try to keep ur sanity
and no poker book will help your AA vs 88 situations, so not really worth thinking about it too much Its poker, its happens, sure it must be a bitch to happen that often (hey not like i was doing much better, remember thats exactly why i took a break too ). But yeah, theres tons of useful books, so reading any of them, even if you dont feel like it improves you as a player, wont make you weaker player either.
also theres always hope next time u get 88 and hit triip 8's someone else has pocket aces so he can pay u off
Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 2219
No I want to read the books to improve(or try to) my game and fix my leaks. If I can be bothered to as that is my downside, not being able to study anything unless it's video gaming or films.
And the AA losing I would not have cared if it was not super deep in a special freeroll and the top 4 places were all over $100 and I would have a great chance once again to go even deeper maybe even a FT, but for some reason whenever I mount a challenge something happens so I lose. If it was astupid few calls or plays then it's my fault but lately all of the times I have running good, playing great and was odds on to go further someone magically hit's something. I know it's poker and it will always happen but it's always at a certain point when I can hit bigger money to a small odd in their favour.
It's why I think MTT's and freerolls are luck based for the FT and winning it.
That KK vs AA set up took my confidence away for some reason but I have started getting back into it now and my bankroll is currently on $8.43. Doing well so far, especially since it is a Zoom type game. Funny how it's the most I have won in weeks unlike on shitty rigged Ipoker.
make that $10.24
Just had two dodgy hands when I had AA in position:
Table 1: AA in the co(instead of KK this time) and bet out x4 and had three callers. KK4 flops down. Know I am beat but I Cbet to make sure. One folds two call so I check and they beat so I fold and watch. They both play and go all in. One guy had KQo(Calls a 4x UTG) and the other QJ(dont know why he played like that. Easy fold but annoying how I lose with KK then lose with AA. Never mind I knew to fold and saved a bomb.
Table 2: Two hands later I get AA on the button and one bet before me so I 3bet light and got a call. Ending up getting called and it looked like the guy either had a J or draw. Ending up river giving the third flush and me watching to see what he was doing before. He bet out to much to show he did not have a flush so I called and he nothing but KQ. Kept calling trying to hit a straight or two over cards but I had him covered but what a call for once.
AA likes to give me a heart attack i swear...
Edit:
And here we go. I am smashing both tables apart(up to $14.60)and the site knows it has to start setting me up to lose. First got 4 limpers and I am the BB with k9s so I just call as I know any raises most will call. I flipped second nut flush. Ends up another limper had flopped the nut flush. Set up one.
Next set up was another flush but this time a fourth on the river. Ends up some fish with K2s had called me OOP and was chasing and hit on the turn. Both check and I hit J high flush. Small bet and call but still something lost.
Currently on $12 now, so $2.50 down thanks to set ups and now my running well and good play is probably finished I bet. *sigh
Wow, nice two set ups against AA in a row on seperate tables now. JJ on the button and two 3.5x bets before so I call. Q is the highest card on the flop but the way the other two bet was weird. Called the flop bet but folded the turn. Turns out it was a 3 way set up of 99 vs JJ vs AA. Good fold by me though.
Second was on the SB and gave me Q9s. BB min raised so I called. Q flops and I valuetown myself as he has AA. Nice. Only down to $11.80 after all of this but funny its happening after running and playing so well.
------------ Other than this it has been a great session starting with $3.50 and making $11 profit before the set ups. $8 is still good, especially after this wanky two weeks at laddys.
------------ Just finished another session at 888. Once again I was crushing both tables I was on and I have gone from $11.80 to $16.40. I then accidentally closed both tables and I just re-loaded two new ones and then it started, variance swept towards me like a tornado. Fish were getting every chase, all my plays and better cards were not hitting anything and had to fold a few KK and JJ's on the flop due to fish hitting something bigger with crap.
Ending up back down to $12 and my anger was ready to push so I just took a deep breath and battled on until I made another $1.30 and quit so I had a little profit to show for that session. Twice in a row I have played really well and crushed these SNAP tables and both times in the end I lose due to variance and fish.
The good news is I am playing well and still making profit for a change. Is this because it's a new site? Variance isnt as bad or maybe these players are worse. Who know's but I am liking it.
Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 2219
This is the b******t I have to deal with lately. Get my money in good until the river ruins everything. I know more then often I get paid off for this fish, but how stupid can you be.
#Game No : 304025403 ***** 888poker Snap PokerHand History for Game 304025403 ***** $0.01/$0.02 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** Table Astana 6 Max (Real Money) Seat 1 is the button Total number of players : 6 Seat 1: olibaro ( $3.62 ) Seat 2: chinibini ( $4.21 ) Seat 4: winnetou888 ( $2.45 ) Seat 6: Phisix ( $1.15 ) Seat 7: mythical69 ( $3.58 ) Seat 9: Roxxjommie ( $0.80 ) chinibini posts small blind [$0.01] winnetou888 posts big blind [$0.02] ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Phisix [ Kd, Ks ] Phisix raises [$0.06] mythical69 calls [$0.06] Roxxjommie folds olibaro folds chinibini folds winnetou888 folds ** Dealing flop ** [ 2d, 7s, Qd ] Phisix bets [$0.11] mythical69 calls [$0.11] ** Dealing turn ** [ 3c ] Phisix bets [$0.31] mythical69 calls [$0.31] ** Dealing river ** [ As ] Phisix bets [$0.67] mythical69 calls [$0.67] ** Summary ** Phisix shows [ Kd, Ks ] mythical69 shows [ Ah, 7h ] mythical69 collected [ $2.19 ]
Wasent going to fold that river due to not thinking he had AQ, but this is the sort of stuff that happens to me whenever I have over pocket pairs or fish call with idiot calls.
Luckily I am crushing another table and my bankroll is currently up to $17.50, so another great session so far but I have some really bad toothache. Never had pain from a toothache before it's horrid.
And another. Magical two cards needed from the whole pack and of course hits. Knew he would hit a straight as it's the predictable s**t I have seen all the time for.
It's stuff like this that really pisses me off as it happens too much for standard variance and keeps taking away the bigger profit I should have.
Oh my fucking god why cant this game give me a fucking break. QQ ans QKs calls my big raise and of course hits a fucking flush on the flop. Keep setting me up when I play fucking great and take the money back, I know pokers game. Fucking cunt scum. Was near;y on $19 now down to fucking $14.49 due to set ups and suckouts.
Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 2219
Tell me about it, it's stuff like this all night.
Thinking about that first hand I posted, he could have had QA and I just did not want to let the hand go but I could have checked the river and he would have bet out even if he had Q10/QJ, and What could I do?
I have calmed down now I took two pain killers for my toothache(which has gone) and I won back a few big hands from some idiots with my AA and also KJ when there were two K's and one guy OOP had 1010 and another K9o calling my value bets out until I checked the river and called both their pushes lol.
Bankroll back on $18.48 at the moment. I guess it shows no matter the variance against me if I am calm I can win it back. I still need to work on controlling it.
Now this one is something, altough you couldn't blame him - he held two suited cards, the excitement must be all over of him...
You should saw how I've got donked out tonite on the PLO H/L tables, now that could be nominated to the 'massacre of the month' too. I won't go near cash tables for a while that's 4 sure.
Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 2219
What happened in that hand, Bowie?
To be fair I did not even notice that draw and with this first raise I was thinking Q10 for some reason, but that goes to show I should have noticed his small 3 bet for him trying to hit a flush.
On the plus side, what the hell is happening to me? On Ladbrokes(Ipoker) I was losing constantly to players just as worse and variance and losing more than winning, but on 888 with three straight winning(and tons of bad variance and suckouts) sessions I have gone from $3.50 freeroll win bankroll to $18.40 odd. Is the site messing with me or am I finally getting rewarded for my good play.
I was down to $10 at one point due to an explosion of variance but thanks to the same idiot players I won it back quite fast.
Nothing happened, you couldn't make him fold after he saw those two diamonds on the flop (that why he is the donk - remember donks will never fold!), but it was unlucky he gotten his two pairs at the end. Honestly I have a terrible history with AQ - suited, unsuited doesn't matter - I always finishing at the wrong end of the d**k with it.
The money ups and downs I think are pretty standard, despite you keep complaining about it - keep your BR management as tight as possible and you will be fine. But I shouldn't be the one who gives out advices, I'm only playing NLHE in toureys.
Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 2219
This is the poker and moan base, complaining and moaning is the real meat of this blog, and of course it keeps me from super tilting.
Speaking of two diamonds and chasing. I have j9s on the button so called someones bet(Ax+ type) and flopped top pair(9) and a draw. The guy before me bet and I kept calling him down.(He had A8o) hit his Ace on the turn but bet weak on the turn but I was calling either way as had second highest pair and a flush draw. Hit it on the river for once and he had two pair on the river and donked his chips all in.
See, this is not fishing or chasing as I had a pair and outs to boot.
Anyway I am done for this night of ups and down and my bankroll finishes on a nice $20.20. $16 odd profit in two days pleases me a lot and if this carry's on I may be able to start making some spending money once again. If I stick to BRM on the lowest SNAP tables like I have I should be good.
Posted by Phisix: Speaking of two diamonds and chasing. I have j9s on the button so called someones bet(Ax+ type) and flopped top pair(9) and a draw. The guy before me bet and I kept calling him down.(He had A8o) hit his Ace on the turn but bet weak on the turn but I was calling either way as had second highest pair and a flush draw. Hit it on the river for once and he had two pair on the river and donked his chips all in.
Thats different from the one above, Andythejack chased a flushdraw with an overall sh1tty hand and put up all of his money knowing that he can't made a nut nor a top two pair on that flop. In general, you want to play with gamblers just like him, since they will be plenty more times behind you on a board like that and they will pay you happily... Your J9s is a very playable hand - especially on a 6max table - and you ended up in a situation with it where you made good decisions (I read it right, you made flush on the river, right?). It's different.
Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 2219
I know I am just saying I would only ever risk chasing if I have the odds, like I did above. Then again that was not really chasing but playing. I always play J9s on the button or LP unless I get the feeling someone has pockets ect but they have won me a few good hands. It's just people chasing with rubbish suited cards like above are hitting quite a lot of flushes against me lately. Funniest one lately was 310s and he actually hit.
These guys do pay me off most of the time, but's it's just painful when they do hit the few times they do.
Anyway I must go to bed I have a busy day tomorrow. Night guys.
Joined: Jan '14
Location: Netherlands
Age: 34 (M)
Posts: 508
Hey Phisix, I hear you have a lot of bad luck the last time, bad beats, donks, incredible rivers, crapcards etc.... Obviously it's very annoying and you can't really prevent every bad beat, but you can really reduce your bad luck by playing some tighter, maybe you play tight already but J9 off isn't just worth it to play, even if you are in position. How and what exactly should you play then? This will really help you: 1. You can play very tight (with a big stack but not neccessary) at a full 9/10 player table 2. Read this book: http://www.google.nl/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc... 3. You can play at higher stakes (little more risk though). There aren't many fish out there!
And for the first and third hand I have one addition: you know very little of your opponent's cards if they call you!
Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 2219
Actually doing well lately. Since I went busto on Ladbrokes and had won a free bankroll on 888 everything has been going well and me playing well has paid off, even with suckouts and crap.
J9s(s is for suited I don't play the off version much if not any) is a great hand to play in position(button) especially in MTT's. I know how to play, I have just been on a big bad run plus me being a tilted idiot sometimes.That said, I am no expert or anything but I have learnt the hard way and I have things always I need to learn or do better. I actually have experience with £1/£2 stakes and below so I know how tougher it can be, but each stake has fish etc, but thanks I know what your getting at, but your input/help as well as everyone elses is always welcome Also, I only really play 6 max myself, although sometimes I have dabbled in full ring but 6max is more main thing although I am starting to like MTT's again.
Anyway on to an update:
Not played in three days as been helping a friend move and some boring long distance deliveries but I just logged on 888 for a small session before bed as I found more special freeroll tickets in my message box. So I now have 7 tickets for that $5000 SNAP freerolls which I intend to use them all on as they are so soft(if the last one I played in is anything to go by) and a few cashes could help my bankroll. I am still sore about getting knocked out by that 88 when I was playing amazing and could have made some decent cash but it's doesnt effect my play in any future ones.
I also have that special ticket for that fighter jet holiday freeroll so I need to play in that as well but that will probably be just for fun as only 1st place wins anything.
------------ Half way through my first session and was up to $22. Thought I was in for a good session then the usual s**t starts happening. Fish call OOP with crap and hitting straights or chasing with 24s and hitting a flush on the river as per standard.
Only down to $18.40 so far but come when this crap already. Oh and this hand again. How many times I can lose with KK in the BB against someone pushing all in with Ax. It is getting quite sick now and also in the same positions.
I know it always happens, but why does it always happen when I am in the BB, it's weird lol.Nearly won it all back but thinking of quitting soon as it doesn't feel right to play right now for some reason and it is better to leave with a little profit than non right.
------------ Heres that bulls**t again. Yes I was slow playing but come on always a river.
------------ Apologies for the moaning tonight guys, I have had three days of constant heavy lifting and not much sleep so anything is going to wind me up(Never been so knackered in my life). Tbh I should have not really played after losing my first BI. Luckily the bottom stake of SNAP on 888 is soft as he and even playing semi bad and weird suckouts I am stiill beating the game. I need to learn not to play when I am tired or angry but I seem to manage it better than I used to. It is one of my two major leaks I still need to work on.
That and losing with KK a lot to single Aces all the time lately while in the big blind is annoying me as its like de ja'vue.
But look, it really is taking the piss now with all ins with me having KK or AA against someone with AK and I ALWAYS lose. Why me all the time?
#Game No : 566184879 ***** 888poker Snap PokerHand History for Game 566184879 ***** $0.02/$0.05 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** Table Brighton 6 Max (Real Money) Seat 1 is the button Total number of players : 6 Seat 1: Majkel_Angel ( $4.84 ) Seat 2: kadesass ( $0.79 ) Seat 4: chillysmile ( $5.07 ) Seat 6: brunomatt ( $2.95 ) Seat 7: Phisix ( $4.85 ) Seat 9: bucko5050 ( $4.83 ) kadesass posts small blind [$0.02] chillysmile folds brunomatt posts big blind [$0.05] ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Phisix [ Ah, As ] Phisix raises [$0.12] bucko5050 folds Majkel_Angel folds kadesass raises [$0.77] brunomatt folds Phisix calls [$0.67] ** Dealing flop ** [ Kc, 7h, 4h ] ** Dealing turn ** [ Jc ] ** Dealing river ** [ Kd ] ** Summary ** kadesass shows [ Ac, Kh ] Phisix shows [ Ah, As ] kadesass collected [ $1.55 ]
------------ If it aint constant suckouts it's some guy calling oop with 29o and flopping two pair and me getting TPTK fr a nice set up. This game makes me wonder sometimes with all this weird and unrealistic stuff. Anyone agree?
Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 2219
Been playing really well lately on SNAP cash tables on 888 but the variance towards fish when I am in massive pots is starting to get to me. My bankroll has been around $100 for the last few days with ups and downs today. I was up to $140 20 minutes ago and lost a pot to some idiot with 89 when I flopped two pair and had a flush draw as well. I could have been nearly on $200 but now I am down to $79 due to that, a 99 vs QQ set up and I just had a mother of coolers flopping a set of 6's and and lost to a set up 7's, another big pot I could have won.
I don't know people can play it so much when this crap keeps happening. I have played so well lately and stuff just keeps happening to set me up. About five times I have had AK, flopped TPTK, someone has chased for a magic one card straight and hits it on the turn as I get given two pair. Five times which is a bit suspicious.
I really hate this game sometimes but we shall see if I can keep cool and win it back, but $200 would have been nice and deserved as well but such is my luck.
------------ What is going on. I have not been on tilt or anything but 888 really hates me for some reason. Everything is against me and nothing is going right. From $140 earlier and I am now on $17. Why is this game so unfair on me sometimes..
------------ Make that $6. Every tom d**k and harry can chase and hit numerous times, but when I do it with pver cards and draws I never hit. All my hard work and crushing and this constant b******t.
------------ Right I am leaving in now because it is getting very fishy. Just had at the same time trapped by set of Kings on one table and one the other I got given a nuts flush draw but lost to a fullhouse(Was not chasing)
Last $3.80 and back to where I first start. How the hell can I go from doing so well, playing so well to losing all of this and never winning anything, getting set up constantly or fish always chasing and hitting whatever. All my hard work gone and I feel dead inside.
Joined: Sep '13
Location: Bosnia and Herzegovina
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 1564
dam phi, should have taken a break when u noticed things arent going your way.
and yea i know the 'never hitting your draws' feeling. in my todays session i had maybe 10 oesd + flush draws and i dont think i actually hit any of them, but hey thats how poker works... i suppose :/
but dam man, how did u mange to lose $140 br so fast? dropping down is usually not an option while youre on tilt (and many people actually go to higher stakes trying to chase loses) but thats not a healthy brm :o
no just think of it, you were what... 60x BI up which totally lets you to jump to next level but still, once you go to 30-40 or so BI you should go back to Nl2
its much easier to rebuild ur br if ur starting with 30 BI and not just 1-2 mind you, either way .. hope you managed to get some cash back with those last $6 but it rarely works that way, esp if ur tilty
Joined: Nov '12
Location: Canada
Age: 55 (M)
Posts: 4675
G'day mates
Just dropped in to say hello. Been on a small break personally. Sorry to read about your troubles dude. hope things turn around for you very fast. best wishes be cool
Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 2219
Not really. My life is s**t, and now I am busto. Was doing well again on my phone and called a min raise with QA and the flop gabe me a Q but another guy a set of Q. Nice set up for the 100th today. O think I Give up with poker life amd everything I really do. Not feeling being alive amd that's not to do with going busto, im just not man enough you know. Night.,
Joined: Jan '14
Location: Netherlands
Age: 34 (M)
Posts: 508
Wow, feel sorry for you, it really feels like you are s**t, it is not Always your fould though! I'm busto now too but I had a bankroll beneath $10 all the time. Maybe you should try to play other games? Or try another strategie, more tight, LAG, small ball poker, maybe it can really help you as I was going busto because I just can't play cashgames and didn't Always have the patience and time to spend on a 5-hour lasting mtt.
Try something, I know you can! A maybe better option is to not deposit and build up a nice bankroll with freerolls, at pokerstars you can win a ticket to a huge freeroll right? Or start with a no-deposit-bonus.
ive heard some people being on the bad side of variance for months (no really, months of active daily play) but ur luck does have to turn around at some point. Until that happens, just try to keep ur sanity 
