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  2-Oct-13, 04:53   #1
Pocket Pairs for Everyone! 0 
Phisix 

Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 2216
Has anyone else noticed how when you get pocket pairs of some sort there is always somebody else who has a pair too?(Usually a higher pair against you, especially for me) It is happening 85% of the time I am playing and in the last ten minutes I have had 77(someone had JJ) and just now had 1010(and of course someone had something higher: eg QQ) It happens far too frequently for it to be constantly random but hey I guess it happens in real poker all the time too. Most of the time the board comes lower than what you have sometimes to you get buggered over thinking you have enough to win.

Anyone else notice this?

     
  2-Oct-13, 05:10   #2
  0 
MFZERO 
Joined: Oct '12
Location: Canada
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 129
The hand that knocked me out of the last BRM FR on Fulltilt today where I had QQ someone had KK and someone had JJ and someone had AK. Can you say cold deck much, jeez. I'll see if its saved in my comp, can't remember who won the hand and post it.


Just came back from a free bar tournament(if you can call 6 people a tournament). One hand I got dealt 10,10 and the guy on my left also has 10,10, we were both going all the way to the river and he showed first and I'm like "really, me too"!. Previous hand before that I also had 10,10. Won on the flop with a bet.


Edit #1: It's 10:10pm in my time zone at the time of this post. I see a reoccurring theme here
Edit #2: Apparently FT stopped saving HH's on my comp around 2 weeks ago, not a clue how that happened.

Edited by MFZERO (Wednesday, October 02, 2013 @ 05:28 GMT)


     
  2-Oct-13, 08:05   #3
  0 
Pjot 
Joined: May '08
Location: Sweden
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1362
Yeah, I had one of those days yesterday, was playing at Svenska Spel, at the low stakes there are still a few morons left there.

OK, picked up 44, got the set against a raiser. (This is limit, so we both raise like m/f:s.)

Turns out he has got AA. And spikes the third A on the river, after a shitload of raising. All the money went in while he had the worst hand, but still he laughs all the way to the bank.

But hey, it's poker, these things happen.

Problem is I, a few minutes later, picked up 22, got the set on the flop, raised, villian raises, I raise, and so on. After a while I start to realise that only a fourth duce might save me now...

As I thought. He had 888.

OK. It happens every now and then, but come on!!! Twice with 15 minutes!?!?!

Is this right??

     
  2-Oct-13, 08:35   #4
  0 
Heskor 
Joined: May '13
Location: Mauritius
Age: 25 (M)
Posts: 2659
Posted by Phisix:
Has anyone else noticed how when you get pocket pairs of some sort there is always somebody else who has a pair too?(Usually a higher pair against you, especially for me) It is happening 85% of the time I am playing and in the last ten minutes I have had 77(someone had JJ) and just now had 1010(and of course someone had something higher: eg QQ) It happens far too frequently for it to be constantly random but hey I guess it happens in real poker all the time too. Most of the time the board comes lower than what you have sometimes to you get buggered over thinking you have enough to win.

Anyone else notice this?



Thats just a coincidence you see what you want to see, it is like the monte carlo fallacy, you remember how on a roulette table, after 20 consecutive spins landing on black, everyone bet on red on the next spin thinking that a red should land now after 20 bets.

This is wrong the probability for black/red will remain the same. Thats just a gambler fallacy lol

Thats what you doing, you should just go check on the probability of you and somebody having a pair at the same time.

     
  2-Oct-13, 15:42   #5
  0 
Phisix 

Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 2216
It probably is a coincidence like you said or something my brain picks up on but I see it a lot that it gets quite annoying.

     
  2-Oct-13, 16:31   #6
  0 
demodawggy 

Joined: Feb '12
Location: Canada
Age: 56 (M)
Posts: 5680
Posted by Phisix:
"It happens far too frequently for it to be constantly random"

"sometimes to you get buggered".


Are you suggesting some form of rigging of pockets TOO...??? There's a thread about hating the 'Magic River' card,.....and a thread about 'Loving' the magic river card,.... Pick the theme of hate or love,...and start a 'Rigged Pocket' thread....lol... Big Smile Thumbs Up

Now,....about this 'buggering' thing.... PokerStars DISALLOWS swearing at the tables,....and they claim multiple accounts are a big no-no too,....but I haven't seen any rules about other players sticking their big ding-dongs up you poop-shute,....so I guess THAT might be legal by technicality... Shock

     
  2-Oct-13, 17:20   #7
  0 
Phisix 

Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 2216
No it's nothing to do with the cards being rigged, that is just stupid lol.

Buggered as in a non sexual way. Tongue

     
  2-Oct-13, 18:17   #8
  0 
DaCapo71 
Joined: Aug '10
Location: Germany
Age: 45 (M)
Posts: 1703
I saw it verry often, that i have a higher pair against two or more other Players and the Player with the lowest Hand is the hero at the river. To often in my opinion. The same in the HU´s.

     
  2-Oct-13, 18:58   #9
  0 
Mober 
Joined: Mar '09
Location: Greece
Age: 39 (F)
Posts: 10011
Every time i have a pocket pair and go all in with someone calling, before they opened the
cards, I am like, please not a pair, not a pair Smile
When i see a pair even if i have pocket aces my face drops on the ground lol.

     
  2-Oct-13, 18:58   #10
  0 
Macubaas 
Joined: Apr '11
Location: Romania
Age: 27 (M)
Posts: 6668
It happens pretty often i have to admit but if you know how to play a pair the chances are that you won't lose money with it.

I mean since you open the game with a pair and other call or reraise it's clear that they also have a good hand, right?

     
  3-Oct-13, 11:40   #11
  0 
noonlion 

Joined: Mar '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 1277
Happens a lot.

The thing is, if you are in a pot against one of 9 hands and there is preflop raising what are the chances they will have AJ+ or a pp? Pretty high.

You're forgetting this is hold'em - pp and big ace hands are always in pots, so naturally you're up against pocket pairs and those hands mostly all the time in a raised pot.

Statistics Cool

     
  4-Oct-13, 16:14   #12
  0 
victoryv111 

Joined: Feb '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 55 (M)
Posts: 169


I found this on another forum, its written by maltz, I post it for your view, I think its very reasonable odds explained, i'm not saying its right or wrong but imo it looks ok...gg gl

(odds) Pocket pair vs. pocket Overpair

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Case KK: What's the chance of your KK bumping into AA?

- There are 6 kinds of AA.
- 50 cards remaining, 1225 possibilities.

Sample calculation for 9 opponents:
1-((1225-6)/1225)^9 = 0.043 (1 in 23)

9 opponents: 1 in 23
7 opponents: 1 in 30
5 opponents: 1 in 41
3 opponents: 1 in 68
1 opponent: 1 in 204

Case QQ: What's the chance of your QQ bumping into KK or AA?

Sample calculation for 9 opponents:
1-((1225-12)/1225)^9 = 0.0848 (1 in 12)

9 opponents: 1 in 12
7 opponents: 1 in 15
5 opponents: 1 in 21
3 opponents: 1 in 34
1 opponent: 1 in 102

Case JJ: What's the chance of your JJ bumping into QQ, KK or AA?

Sample calculation for 9 opponents:
1-((1225-18)/1225)^9 = 0.124 (1 in 8)

9 opponents: 1 in 8.0
7 opponents: 1 in 10
5 opponents: 1 in 14
3 opponents: 1 in 23
1 opponent: 1 in 68

Case TT: What's the chance of your pocket 10s bumping into JJ, QQ, KK or AA?

Sample calculation for 9 opponents:
1-((1225-24)/1225)^9 = 0.163 (1 in 6.1)

9 opponents: 1 in 6.1
7 opponents: 1 in 7.7
5 opponents: 1 in 11
3 opponents: 1 in 17
1 opponent: 1 in 51

Case 99: What's the chance of your pocket 9s bumping into 10s or above?

Sample calculation for 9 opponents:
1-((1225-30)/1225)^9 = 0.200 (1 in 5.0)

9 opponents: 1 in 5.0
7 opponents: 1 in 6.3
5 opponents: 1 in 8.6
3 opponents: 1 in 14
1 opponent: 1 in 41

Case 88: What's the chance of your pocket 8s bumping into 9s or above?

Sample calculation for 9 opponents:
1-((1225-36)/1225)^9 = 0.235 (1 in 4.2)

9 opponents: 1 in 4.2
7 opponents: 1 in 5.3
5 opponents: 1 in 7.2
3 opponents: 1 in 12
1 opponent: 1 in 34

I guess you have a good idea now. In headsup play it is just very rare to push into an overpair. Even with pocket 2s you are looking into 1 in 17. So does this mean that you should always push pocket dueces? 16/17 of the time you are slightly ahead (usually 55:45), and 1/17 of the time you are doomed. Diamond Smile

     
  4-Oct-13, 17:53   #13
  0 
noonlion 

Joined: Mar '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 1277
Posted by victoryv111:


I found this on another forum, its written by maltz, I post it for your view, I think its very reasonable odds explained, i'm not saying its right or wrong but imo it looks ok...gg gl

(odds) Pocket pair vs. pocket Overpair

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Case KK: What's the chance of your KK bumping into AA?

- There are 6 kinds of AA.
- 50 cards remaining, 1225 possibilities.

Sample calculation for 9 opponents:
1-((1225-6)/1225)^9 = 0.043 (1 in 23)

9 opponents: 1 in 23
7 opponents: 1 in 30
5 opponents: 1 in 41
3 opponents: 1 in 68
1 opponent: 1 in 204

Case QQ: What's the chance of your QQ bumping into KK or AA?

Sample calculation for 9 opponents:
1-((1225-12)/1225)^9 = 0.0848 (1 in 12)

9 opponents: 1 in 12
7 opponents: 1 in 15
5 opponents: 1 in 21
3 opponents: 1 in 34
1 opponent: 1 in 102

Case JJ: What's the chance of your JJ bumping into QQ, KK or AA?

Sample calculation for 9 opponents:
1-((1225-18)/1225)^9 = 0.124 (1 in 8)

9 opponents: 1 in 8.0
7 opponents: 1 in 10
5 opponents: 1 in 14
3 opponents: 1 in 23
1 opponent: 1 in 68

Case TT: What's the chance of your pocket 10s bumping into JJ, QQ, KK or AA?

Sample calculation for 9 opponents:
1-((1225-24)/1225)^9 = 0.163 (1 in 6.1)

9 opponents: 1 in 6.1
7 opponents: 1 in 7.7
5 opponents: 1 in 11
3 opponents: 1 in 17
1 opponent: 1 in 51

Case 99: What's the chance of your pocket 9s bumping into 10s or above?

Sample calculation for 9 opponents:
1-((1225-30)/1225)^9 = 0.200 (1 in 5.0)

9 opponents: 1 in 5.0
7 opponents: 1 in 6.3
5 opponents: 1 in 8.6
3 opponents: 1 in 14
1 opponent: 1 in 41

Case 88: What's the chance of your pocket 8s bumping into 9s or above?

Sample calculation for 9 opponents:
1-((1225-36)/1225)^9 = 0.235 (1 in 4.2)

9 opponents: 1 in 4.2
7 opponents: 1 in 5.3
5 opponents: 1 in 7.2
3 opponents: 1 in 12
1 opponent: 1 in 34

I guess you have a good idea now. In headsup play it is just very rare to push into an overpair. Even with pocket 2s you are looking into 1 in 17. So does this mean that you should always push pocket dueces? 16/17 of the time you are slightly ahead (usually 55:45), and 1/17 of the time you are doomed. Diamond Smile


Good face validity - not entirely sure about the numbers but seems to be about right and explains why so often when you shove lower PP they get run over with an overpair.

     
  6-Oct-13, 20:16   #14
  0 
Skidis 
Joined: Apr '13
Location: Sweden
Age: 29 (M)
Posts: 6
Haha I have acctuallt thought about this too, but there is no logic what so ever in this statement, so I think that you and me just is unlucky Blink Haha.. Agree

     
  10-Oct-13, 16:05   #15
  0 
Phisix 

Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 2216
How many times can one person run into higher pocket pairs in one session? I have hit 9 now and lost every time I have had them. I have run into AA with KK about three times now. Had JJ three times and always an ace or Q on the flop.

Lame.

------------
Make that fucking four JJs now. Guy called my 3bet after he min raise and of course a fucking higher card which he had.

     
  26-Oct-13, 20:51   #16
  0 
Phisix 

Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 2216
I am really having a problem with pockets lately. My big pocket pairs are getting crushed by lower ones and my lower pocket pairs are getting crushed by the bigger ones, except AA. Anyone ever going through a phase like this?(Cash tables)

------------
Ran into a set of 2's twice this evening and both times I have had a higher pocket pair. Always from someone else limping OOP first. The ratio of me getting trips compared to them against me is very low as I run into them all they time and I dont hit very many, quite annoying.

------------
And again. Im like a magnet to these damn sets. Hating this game at the moment. Aww crap!

Edited by Phisix (Saturday, October 26, 2013 @ 22:36 GMT)


     
  27-Oct-13, 07:52   #17
  0 
roeish3 
Joined: Jul '13
Location: Israel
Age: 42 (M)
Posts: 394
If you're one of those guys who goes all-in or make big raises with any pocket pair, when you get called, it will often be with higher pairs.
If I get lower or middle pair and I'm in early position or someone raised I figure I'm -EV and makes a play only with a set (or bluff, but that's very rear). In late position or when I really need a double-up.

My only problem is that it seems my KK always face AA with the only player in the table that dominates me to get me off the game right before the bubble.

     
  27-Oct-13, 14:25   #18
  0 
Phisix 

Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 2216
I never raise big with pairs 99 and under, but when say you have 99 and the flop cards are all lower you are tricked into thinking you are on top sometimes as they have a higher pair etc. I never play low ones in early unless no one raises too much as you never know if you hit a set.

I have had KK and about a quarter of the I have run into AA. When I get AA I always hope someone has KK but they dont recently.

     
  14-Nov-13, 23:00   #19
  0 
Phisix 

Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 2216
Had all my premium pocket pairs cracked by smaller pocket pairs all night. Think variance hates me or I cursed. I cant remember the last time I cracked someones premium pocket pair with my own lower pair. I am sure variance with swing in my favour soon,

     
  15-Nov-13, 11:56   #20
  0 
optimus7 

Joined: Oct '09
Location: Philippines
Age: 39 (M)
Posts: 14
Sometimes it happened to me but turned into a bad beat. Got monster Aces! Someone went all in, I was tempted to call. Dang! he had pocket 2 and went to 3 of a kind 222 Big Smile

     
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