I think my call was +EV, even though none of my hole cards were in play, and the best possible outcome was a split pot (which is what happened).
There were 52-7 = 45 cards unknown. If you ignore the flush possibility for a moment (seemed unlikely given the way the hand unfolded), the chance that the villain has one of the 4 eights is:
1 - (41/45)*(40/44) = 17.2% (I think it might be even less because there probably are not too many eights in his range).
So I'm calling a $0.28 bet for a split pot that will get me $0.13:
EV = 82.8%*$0.13 - 17.2%*$0.28 = +$0.06
Even though I fully expected the pot sized bet to be a bluff, I just called, but I'm left wondering if I should have turned the tables on him, and reraise, possibly taking the whole pot...
Joined: May '08
Location: Lithuania
Age: 39 (M)
Posts: 10090
lool tricky spot here- he played the hand aggressively, from the math point of view u made the correct call (though i'm not that good in this department, just that reading your given numbers makes sense), but really this hand could turn out anyway - a reraise? hmmm - if you are thinking about ev, then reraising him would kill it i guess...u can easily put him on a hand like 88's, or A8...tough spot, i won hands in such situation and lost some too, my action would be sth between fold and call depending on the way i'm running...reraising would be a bit too much
Joined: Jun '10
Location: Belgium
Age: 57 (M)
Posts: 178
I think a call was the best way to play here.
If you 3bet him, 3 things can happen
He folds : unlikely i think because he bets pot size He calls : you split the pot but win less because you pay more rake He 4bets : this is a very tricky spot, he could have an eight or slowplayed his flush, so you don't know which hand he has.
Joined: Apr '11
Location: Romania
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 6669
Considering that he just checked on turn it was clear that you need to call there.
Still on that turn i would have made another bet. On this limit maybe it's not ideal but on higher limits he could have fold on turn if you made a bet.
This is one of these spots where any move can be good... But yeah I think call is the best option in general. Raise could work but considering the stakes I don't think other player is folding unless you make an overbet or something very scary. Folding is fine too since pot is small... But does this particular player pot size bet often when he has the nuts? I think decision wise it's all about his betting patterns.
Posted by demodawggy: I'd like to see a heads up match between you and jovikaralj.... The two of you are very methodical players...
I would like that too... I even played the BRM heads-up championship, a few years ago, explicitly hoping to play him and Jess, but that was not to be, as BulletTooth knocked me out in the second round.
That being said, Jovi has been playing $15 HU games, and making a living out of it, for years. I'm flattered you think it might be an interesting game (or maybe you just like to witness the ensuing carnage, then shame on you!)...
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Posted by TheMachineQC: But does this particular player pot size bet often when he has the nuts? I think decision wise it's all about his betting patterns.
I did not have too much info on him, but my impression was that he was attempting (and succeeding in) buying the pot relatively often.
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Posted by SuperpokefA: He calls : you split the pot but win less because you pay more rake
That was in my mind also; I hate it when, the nuts is on the table, someone still makes an allin move, hoping someone will fold or something. That never happens, and everyone loses, because of the rake. This was not quite like that, but it occured to me that he most likely was not going to fold, and only the rake would be boosted...
