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  12-Dec-13, 20:33   #1
Variance is a joke! 0 
bolhec5 
Joined: Jan '13
Location: Slovenia
Age: 42 (M)
Posts: 13
Hi All!

In a month and half of steady play (bit up bit down) but still earning some money... In 27k hands I made $180 profit in 45 days (12k NL2=$65, 15k NL4=115) . In last 4 days and 4k hands I lost everything I earned on NL4 and have to move slowly back to NL2 now.

In last 4k hands:
- 16x pocket AA I won 15 times blind and 1 time I lost 1,5 BI - down few cents
- 15x pocket KK once won BI, 3 times lost BI, 11 times won blind - down $8
- 10x pocket QQ once won BI, 2 times lost BI, 7 times won blind - down $4
- 49x AK - down $7
- 42x AQ - down $2
- 35x AJ - up $3???

Whole problem becomes at the moment when I realize that my F stats and play didn't change at all. MY VPIP is around 23 an PFR 18.
I think this is total joke and variance is not supposed to be by plan as it is here. It's too predictable this random.

In last year, since I'm playing poker, this is 6th such occasion. 5 times till now I was just on edge to move to higher limit (from NL2 to NL4 on different sites) and at that moment I was not able to win a hand anymore...

With this post I just hope that someone will see this post and unplug me from their milking machine.
I think they know very very good who is going to give money in who is going to take it out (that little bit when they're finished with grabbing) and who are (me) those medium players that will bring them a lot of rake without depositing or withdrawing.

This is just cream of badbeats in last 4k hands Sad

BTN: 93 BB (VPIP: 8.93, PFR: 5.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 232)
SB: 164.75 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 37.50, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 8)
BB: 68.25 BB (VPIP: 20.83, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
Hero (UTG): 129.5 BB
MP: 45.25 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
CO: 138 BB (VPIP: 68.75, PFR: 31.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:heart: Q:heart:

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 4:diamond: K:spade: J:diamond:
Hero bets 5.25 BB, CO calls 5.25 BB

Turn: (18 BB, 2 players) K:diamond:
Hero bets 12.75 BB, CO raises to 55.5 BB, Hero raises to 121.25 BB and is all-in, CO calls 65.75 BB

River: (260.5 BB, 2 players) 2:club:

CO shows 4:club: 4:spade: (Full House, Fours full of Kings) (Pre 50%, Flop 95%, Turn 84%)
Hero mucks K:heart: Q:heart: (Three of a Kind, Kings) (Pre 50%, Flop 5%, Turn 16%)
CO wins 247.5 BB

********************

BTN: 43.75 BB (VPIP: 11.91, PFR: 6.50, 3Bet Preflop: 1.98, Hands: 290)
SB: 143.75 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
BB: 32.5 BB (VPIP: 38.78, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 52)
UTG: 218.75 BB (VPIP: 13.78, PFR: 6.61, 3Bet Preflop: 1.39, Hands: 899)
Hero (MP): 156.75 BB
CO: 44.25 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:diamond: K:club:

UTG calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 3 BB

Flop: (9.5 BB, 2 players) 5:diamond: K:diamond: J:club:
UTG checks, Hero bets 6.75 BB, UTG raises to 57.5 BB, Hero raises to 152.75 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 95.25 BB

Turn: (315 BB, 2 players) K:spade:

River: (315 BB, 2 players) 3:club:

UTG shows 5:spade: 5:heart: (Full House, Fives full of Kings) (Pre 55%, Flop 93%, Turn 84%)
Hero mucks A:diamond: K:club: (Three of a Kind, Kings) (Pre 45%, Flop 7%, Turn 16%)
UTG wins 299.25 BB

********************

BTN: 167 BB (VPIP: 58.97, PFR: 30.77, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 40)
SB: 211 BB (VPIP: 20.48, PFR: 13.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 174)
Hero (BB): 125 BB
UTG: 145.25 BB (VPIP: 8.00, PFR: 1.33, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 76)
MP: 60.25 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
CO: 98 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 2:spade: K:spade:

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 1 BB, fold, Hero checks

Flop: (3.5 BB, 3 players) 4:spade: K:diamond: 2:club:
Hero bets 2.5 BB, UTG calls 2.5 BB, fold

Turn: (8.5 BB, 2 players) 6:diamond:
Hero bets 6 BB, UTG raises to 19.5 BB, Hero raises to 33 BB, UTG raises to 141.75 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 88.5 BB and is all-in

River: (251.5 BB, 2 players) Q:club:

Hero shows 2:spade: K:spade: (Two Pair, Kings and Twos) (Pre 34%, Flop 13%, Turn 5%)
UTG shows 4:club: 4:diamond: (Three of a Kind, Fours) (Pre 66%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)
UTG wins 0 BB
UTG wins 239 BB

********************

BTN: 125 BB (VPIP: 13.88, PFR: 6.54, 3Bet Preflop: 0.84, Hands: 753)
Hero (SB): 243.25 BB
BB: 187.5 BB (VPIP: 80.00, PFR: 80.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 5)
UTG: 127.25 BB (VPIP: 15.86, PFR: 10.34, 3Bet Preflop: 4.08, Hands: 148)
MP: 46.75 BB (VPIP: 34.15, PFR: 12.20, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)
CO: 81.25 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:diamond: K:spade:

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 5 BB, fold, BTN calls 2 BB

Flop: (11 BB, 2 players) 8:heart: 6:spade: 2:heart:
Hero checks, BTN bets 7.75 BB, Hero raises to 15.5 BB, BTN raises to 57 BB, Hero raises to 238.25 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 63 BB and is all-in

Turn: (251 BB, 2 players) 3:heart:

River: (251 BB, 2 players) 4:spade:

BTN shows 8:diamond: 8:spade: (Three of a Kind, Eights) (Pre 18%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows K:diamond: K:spade: (One Pair, Kings) (Pre 82%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
Hero wins 0 BB
BTN wins 238.5 BB

********************

BTN: 124 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
SB: 177 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
BB: 29.5 BB (VPIP: 21.13, PFR: 2.82, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 73)
UTG: 116 BB (VPIP: 15.96, PFR: 0.53, 3Bet Preflop: 1.72, Hands: 194)
MP: 121.75 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
Hero (CO): 148.25 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:heart: 8:diamond:

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 4 players) A:diamond: A:club: 7:heart:
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 8.5 BB, BTN calls 8.5 BB, fold, fold

Turn: (29 BB, 2 players) 2:heart:
Hero bets 20.75 BB, BTN raises to 45 BB, Hero calls 24.25 BB

River: (119 BB, 2 players) K:heart:
Hero bets 91.75 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 67.5 BB and is all-in

Hero shows A:heart: 8:diamond: (Three of a Kind, Aces) (Pre 44%, Flop 23%, Turn 16%)
BTN shows 7:club: 7:diamond: (Full House, Sevens full of Aces) (Pre 56%, Flop 77%, Turn 84%)
Hero wins 0 BB
BTN wins 241.5 BB

********************

BTN: 171.75 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 27)
Hero (SB): 117.75 BB
BB: 125 BB (VPIP: 16.19, PFR: 9.84, 3Bet Preflop: 3.60, Hands: 320)
UTG: 122.25 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 6.06, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
MP: 139 BB (VPIP: 14.93, PFR: 12.12, 3Bet Preflop: 11.54, Hands: 68)
CO: 54.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:heart: K:club:

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, UTG calls 4 BB

Flop: (15 BB, 2 players) 9:club: A:club: J:club:
Hero bets 10.5 BB, UTG raises to 21 BB, Hero raises to 110.75 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 89.75 BB

Turn: (236.5 BB, 2 players) Q:diamond:

River: (236.5 BB, 2 players) K:diamond:

UTG shows T:heart: Q:heart: (Straight, Ace High) (Pre 18%, Flop 15%, Turn 14%)
Hero mucks K:heart: K:club: (Three of a Kind, Kings) (Pre 82%, Flop 85%, Turn 86%)
UTG wins 224.75 BB

********************

BTN: 110 BB (VPIP: 17.31, PFR: 5.77, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 52)
SB: 70.5 BB (VPIP: 35.29, PFR: 29.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
BB: 131.5 BB (VPIP: 13.89, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 73)
UTG: 70.5 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
Hero (MP): 171.5 BB
CO: 59.25 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:diamond: A:club:

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, CO raises to 6 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 3 BB

Flop: (13.5 BB, 2 players) 9:diamond: K:club: 9:club:
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (13.5 BB, 2 players) 7:club:
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (13.5 BB, 2 players) 2:club:
Hero bets 165.5 BB and is all-in, CO calls 53.25 BB and is all-in

Hero shows A:diamond: A:club: (Flush, Ace High) (Pre 82%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
CO shows K:heart: K:diamond: (Full House, Kings full of Nines) (Pre 18%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
Hero wins 0 BB
CO wins 114 BB

     
  12-Dec-13, 21:50   #2
  0 
Theapple 

Joined: Sep '13
Location: Bosnia and Herzegovina
Age: 29 (M)
Posts: 1552
Posted by bolhec5:

In last year, since I'm playing poker, this is 6th such occasion. 5 times till now I was just on edge to move to higher limit (from NL2 to NL4 on different sites) and at that moment I was not able to win a hand anymore...



when that happens, and youre close to tilting (or even without it) you should move down a level asap. Because regardless of how well you play if you think youre on a downswing its much easier to survive it at NL2 than 4/6 especially since im not sure what your budget was ($180?). And im not talking about moving down a level when your budget goes down to NL2 limit, but right away when you realize its gonna end ugly. Judging by your post by now you should be able to predict when is that going to happen :=)

sometimes its not just levels really, we all go through it but i have learned to drop a level (or even two) if im 100% positive im on a downswing and close to going tilt Tongue also, it helps to take a break when you see things are going the way you dont want them to go (this comes with experience) because at some point you can prevent going tilt and ull find yourself much less prone to doing things like going miles of ur range (aka shoving with 27o just because u think bb is tight player Tongue).

ah and once again, regardless of how well you play we all go through periods of not being able to win pretty much any hand regardless of how strong it might look like, and thats why its important not to overplay your budget - tomorrow is another day, just take a break, or even review your hands if ur still in a mood for poker- and (as long as u got a budget for it, and play by the 'book', more or less) ur climb back.

ah and one more thing, when it comes to switching limits, you should play just a few tables at first because playing too many tables will just make you play like you did at micro limits, on semi zombie mode, which in the end makes you too predictable and thats a no go at non-micro limits Tongue

dear lord that ended up way ... way more than i wanted to say at first. actually i just wanted to tell you how we all go through it and not to go over ur budget (aka go down a level if needed) and, as cliche as it sounds - all that (both bad and good) variance evens out with time Tongue

     
  13-Dec-13, 01:06   #3
  0 
BeMyATMplz 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 1854
If you believe it's just the variance then just keep grinding,but maybe look for plugging leaks as well.
I'm not a cashgame expert as I mostly grind SNGs/MTTs,but to me you go broke too light in some of the above hands (especially the KQ hand,the K2 hand I could see myself folding vs. this villain too).
You can get it in against loose randoms in these situations,but the stats of these players are fairly tight,I don't really think you are ahead of their range here,especially in the KQ hand.
Also,what I see from those hands is that you don't really consider future-postflop play in your preflop actions.
Your 3bets are very small,while you are playing OOP postflop.
Especially in the last hand I don't like the flat call with AA here vs. an unknown player (the 0/0 doesn't mean anything after 2 hands of course).
vs. someone 3-betting very light and small and folding to 5bets alot,this would be a possible play,but don't do it here.
Keep it simple,especially at these limits. 'Less is sometimes more' you know Smile
You seem to have the right additude to make money and improve so keep going,use all sources you can to improve,and keep putting in the volume,gl Smile

     
  14-Dec-13, 10:29   #4
  0 
doomdy 

Joined: May '08
Location: Netherlands
Age: 46 (M)
Posts: 6197
Variance is a bitch.
But you need to have a decent sample size to even complain about variance Tongue

With 4K hands talking about variance is a bit strange Agree

     
  14-Dec-13, 17:07   #5
  0 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
Posted by doomdy:
Variance is a bitch.
But you need to have a decent sample size to even complain about variance Tongue

With 4K hands talking about variance is a bit strange Agree


Heya mate! Been a long time..

And yes - talking about variance with a sample size of ~4,000 doesn't make any sense.. I honestly used to have more hands than that in a single day of playing, back when I was playing regularly.

------------
Also - if you lose 45 buyins across only 4,000 hands.. that's probably something more than variance.

     
  14-Dec-13, 17:33   #6
  0 
Nastasha1982 
Joined: Oct '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 33 (M)
Posts: 175
I had to stop reading when I saw the first HH was you going broke with trips, 2nd kicker on a flush and paired board. Shock

     
  14-Dec-13, 18:15   #7
  0 
TigerAxL 

Joined: Feb '11
Location: Romania
Age: 26 (M)
Posts: 392
wow this is a large post ,u can talk on this subject years.
When i alwais got a final satelite (like 50-120$ buyin)70% of time i saw gamblers wining
,so no matter how u play into a MTT ,u just have to use u re donkish style at least oance

     
  15-Dec-13, 09:02   #8
  0 
doubletop777 
Joined: Mar '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 47 (M)
Posts: 5533
Just another session on the poker tables! It is always fascinating to see the ups and downs of the tables, and the cruel way just a couple of cards can hit you for six. Just have to take a step back and come back fighting. Good luck to you

     
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