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  21-Jan-14, 22:45   #1
OSCAR odds 0 
bowie1984 

Joined: Apr '12
Location: Hungary
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 4685
Im looking at the odds for winners in the next Academy Awards, mainly on Unibet and bet365 and...
The favorites offers so bad odds I cant even begin to describe them in words.
But every year theres one or two big upset in some of the major/semi-major categories so I would dedicate this forum to brainstorm around them.

4 start: I might take Leo or the dude from 12 years a slave in the actor category, it will have good returns if they win since they no longer considered frontrunners to McConaughey.

Anybody seeing some dark horse?
Considering huge chunk of the voting members in the Academy are over 60 years old, it might play role in some outcome.

     
  21-Jan-14, 23:49   #2
  0 
noonlion 

Joined: Mar '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 1277
These sorts of bets stink to me.

You're betting on a fixed outcome, which the bookies will have favourable inside knowledge on. They will know people who know people and can give them clues as to which way things might go. I just don't see the point.

     
  22-Jan-14, 00:44   #3
  0 
bowie1984 

Joined: Apr '12
Location: Hungary
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 4685
The voting still underway (up until end of february) and the academy has more then 5000 members.
Bookies changing odds left and right not because some insider talk rather than all the awards ceremony in a last couple days (and after the Globes, SAG and PGA theres still DGA, WGA, BAFTA left).

I see a point - if you could pick somebody with double digit odds (somebody whos future win will go against the trend of the recent ceremonies) youre in the green.

     
  22-Jan-14, 04:19   #4
  0 
awood88 
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 1881
I did not know you could bet on the awards at these sites. It seems to me that it would be silly to expect to make any money on these events. Unless you have knowledge that the bookies don't or you happen to be an expert in such predictions you'll just have to rely on stone cold luck. After the bookies take their cut you won't get good odds on any sneaky outsiders.

But if you were planning on watching the oscars this might spice things up, add a little extra excitement/meaning to the outcome. Of course the most deserving films and actors rarely win and the awards are given to those in the industry who will be the most profitable choice, the films that need that extra financial backing or those that look good on paper. It's usually pretty obvious who the favourites are going to be months before.

     
  22-Jan-14, 11:54   #5
  0 
pochui 

Joined: May '08
Location: Lithuania
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 8643
i think i'll pass on this "great opportunity"...reasons Confused a few:
- have no fcukin clue bout what do the odds really correspond: are they value for money, or is someone overpriced.
- really doubt bout the integrity of the outcome, voting is not something i trust a lot...
- have no money to bet with (but this not a serious reason is it?)

     
  22-Jan-14, 13:32   #6
  0 
doubletop777 
Joined: Mar '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 47 (M)
Posts: 5552
There is normally one upset but i would be looking to combine three or four of the favourites and place an accumalator bet. The odds of this should be around about the two or three to one marker. Good luck to whatever you decide to bet on

     
  22-Jan-14, 15:33   #7
  0 
bowie1984 

Joined: Apr '12
Location: Hungary
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 4685
Posted by doubletop777:
There is normally one upset but i would be looking to combine three or four of the favourites and place an accumalator bet. The odds of this should be around about the two or three to one marker. Good luck to whatever you decide to bet on


Wherever a I went, they didnt allow parlay the favs, so Im just trying to find a couple dark horses for value.
I might wait a week or two when they broaden the pool with some less interesting categories (best make-up, soundtrack etc.), I definitely wont bet on favs in major categories.

     
  22-Jan-14, 16:42   #8
  0 
Mober 
Joined: Mar '09
Location: Greece
Age: 39 (F)
Posts: 10039
Betting on sport is ok. When you start placing bets on stuff like that i believe that you are declaring your addiction Smile Not that it isnt one already, but some may have not got that clue Smile
More chances in sports either way.

     
  22-Jan-14, 18:18   #9
  0 
ddblt1970 
Joined: Aug '13
Location: Czech Republic
Age: 21 (M)
Posts: 913
Don´t bet on Leonardo di Caprio, he can´t win. Big Smile




     
  22-Jan-14, 18:34   #10
  0 
awood88 
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 1881
Posted by Mober:
Betting on sport is ok. When you start placing bets on stuff like that i believe that you are declaring your addiction Smile Not that it isnt one already, but some may have not got that clue Smile
More chances in sports either way.


I really don't see the difference. Either way you are betting against the bookies, the experts, the industry insiders. You're certainly not better off betting on football (soccer). There's a lot of variance and you're betting against the consensus of the whole industry who always win in the long term. At least with non sports and less popular betting events the bookie is likely to have less knowledge and you're more likely to have more differing opinions, which means you can shop around for better odds.

     
  22-Jan-14, 22:40   #11
  0 
MB30 

Joined: Jun '12
Location: Greece
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 484
Posted by Mober:
Betting on sport is ok. When you start placing bets on stuff like that i believe that you are declaring your addiction Smile Not that it isnt one already, but some may have not got that clue Smile
More chances in sports either way.


I understand the concept and idea of betting only on sports since includs action,drama and personal sympathies.But betting its matter of prices and avoiding factor of luck where possible.Just few moments ago Manchester Un. lost advance on Capital One Cup final on penalties!!!!Who could dare to bet on penalties??That's gambling ,not betting.
About Oscars i would like to say tha i smelll that DI Caprio "must" nominated one award,at last.IF the price is fair ,personally would recommend such a bet.My favorite acor is Cristian Bale but i see him second this year.

     
  22-Jan-14, 23:25   #12
  0 
bowie1984 

Joined: Apr '12
Location: Hungary
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 4685
Posted by MB30:
About Oscars i would like to say tha i smelll that DI Caprio "must" nominated one award,at last.IF the price is fair ,personally would recommend such a bet.My favorite acor is Cristian Bale but i see him second this year.


I like Leo too (or his odds at least), but unfortunately his film is way too racy for the voters who are usually go with the lowest common denominator - perfect example for this was last years Argo, which is a completely bland, boring movie without any memorable scenes or roles.

So as I stated above I might try some mining on the lesser categories later or anywhere if theres no clear frontrunner.

     
  22-Jan-14, 23:53   #13
  0 
damosk 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 52 (M)
Posts: 4867
In my honest opinion the outright winner of best film category shoud be Despicable Me 2. I wonder what odds I could waste my well earned money on for that little gem...... Is it really appropriate to bet on the outcome of something that is decided by a group of people who could quite easily determine the outcome based on their own preferences for the betting community? Don't think so!

     
  23-Jan-14, 17:15   #14
  0 
Mober 
Joined: Mar '09
Location: Greece
Age: 39 (F)
Posts: 10039
And again sports is another thing and oscars for example is another.
On sports at some point you get some clues on what is going on, you get tips, etc.
I am sure that doesnt happen in Oscars for example.
We are talking about taste in movies there, favourite actors, etc, etc.
There are movies that have won oscars for example and never watched them cause i
didnt like the at all.
Havent even watched the odds, but i really believe it is harder to win a bet
in comparison to one with the same odds in a sport for example.

How many actors have been nominated time after time and they still havent got any Smile

     
  23-Jan-14, 17:38   #15
  0 
MB30 

Joined: Jun '12
Location: Greece
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 484
I get your point and don't really disagree. Just trying to say that you can bet on anything “scenario” u think that the odds given(to become reality/true) are better than the probabilities exist to actually happen. For example a coinflip :if u would be offered 2/1 for either of two cases u have to take it because its price is huge regardless the result.For Oscars I dont really care but I think there are certain leaks to show preferences before actual ceremony occurs.

     
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