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  24-Feb-14, 03:51   #1
VARIANCE you cant beat it 0 
wullie 
Joined: Mar '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 70
you cant beat it been playing 3.75 7.50 9.75 on pokerstars satalittes on pstars my holdem manager says i should be up 2000.00 but im not why cos u cant beat it ill post stats later

ive been here a while but just reading posts like ronin harpers n phisixs hes right poker is rigged if u dont care u win

     
  24-Feb-14, 07:47   #2
  0 
BeMyATMplz 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 1854
Chances are your HEM has an error in calculating the EV

     
  24-Feb-14, 08:22   #3
  0 
pokershark74 

Joined: Feb '11
Location: Canada
Age: 27 (M)
Posts: 831
Posted by BeMyATMplz:
Chances are your HEM has an error in calculating the EV


i concur

     
  24-Feb-14, 08:29   #4
  +1 
pochui 

Joined: May '08
Location: Lithuania
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 8648
i think you should look at poker like business- only a small percentage of those who dream of having one actually do, only a small percentage of those who do, make any profit, only ~1% are really successful. probably same ~1% works in poker- if you want to be part of this small group- you should keep learning, developing you game (especially try to learn from those who are actually long term winners)

     
  24-Feb-14, 08:33   #5
  0 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
Posted by pochui:
i think you should look at poker like business- only a small percentage of those who dream of having one actually do, only a small percentage of those who do, make any profit, only ~1% are really successful. probably same ~1% works in poker- if you want to be part of this small group- you should keep learning, developing you game (especially try to learn from those who are actually long term winners)


your truth is ruining my fantasy. scumbag.

     
  24-Feb-14, 08:37   #6
  0 
pochui 

Joined: May '08
Location: Lithuania
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 8648
Posted by jessthehuman:
your truth is ruining my fantasy. scumbag.

feel so guilty Disagree off to the toilet to wash away my bad feeling together with some brown stuff

     
  24-Feb-14, 13:09   #7
  0 
doubletop777 
Joined: Mar '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 47 (M)
Posts: 5557
I dont think that poker is rigged but i do agree that it feels like that sometimes. The amount of bad beats i have had lately is unbelievable but i know that if you play long enough these things even themselves out. Good luck on the tables

     
  24-Feb-14, 14:01   #8
  0 
BeMyATMplz 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 1854
Posted by doubletop777:
I dont think that poker is rigged but i do agree that it feels like that sometimes. The amount of bad beats i have had lately is unbelievable but i know that if you play long enough these things even themselves out. Good luck on the tables


That's the truth, however most people can't handle enough tables so that it would even out fairly quickly. It takes them a longer period of time to overcome downswings, and then they aren't willing to "wait it out".

     
  24-Feb-14, 14:11   #9
  0 
vic75 
Joined: Sep '10
Location: Canada
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 1962
If you are breaking even you are winning or only play free rolls than no risk involved luck has a big factor in factor set over set quads over quads Shock Shock Big Smile Big Smile Cool Cool Blink Blink

     
  24-Feb-14, 14:14   #10
  0 
wullie 
Joined: Mar '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 70
i play 4/5 tables im giving up hyper turbos i like them but the amount of bad beats i get are insane cant handle the swings this game provides only person i know that profits these is jorj95 i lost around £6000 last year so im finnished wont be losing that much this year need to change what game i play thanks for comments guys

------------
note to BEMYATMPLZ stats dont lie ........

Edited by wullie (Monday, February 24, 2014 @ 14:34 GMT)

Attached Imagespstars.png

     
  24-Feb-14, 16:10   #11
  0 
djpremier 
Joined: Dec '10
Location: Finland
Age: 24 (M)
Posts: 419
That's kinda brutal, but 700 games is not that big of a sample when talking about hypers ... but I guess you already knew that ... GL in your future games , whatever format it's going to be Smile Thumbs Up Thumbs Up

     
  24-Feb-14, 16:27   #12
  0 
wullie 
Joined: Mar '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 70
thanks, anno not a big sample just dont have the bankroll to play it

     
  25-Feb-14, 19:41   #13
  0 
BeMyATMplz 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 1854
Posted by wullie:
note to BEMYATMPLZ stats dont lie ........


They actually do lie. You notice your EV would equal to a 60% ROI? Please search for people on sharkscope that have achieved this over this small, but still okay sample, you won't find anyone that got even close to it.
When I was in the sharkscope leaderboard for $3.50 hyper 9 mans last year I also had an EV of about $1/game according to HEM,equaling almost 30% ROI, which is also false, max. achievable ROI is about 8% at these games, and these are NORMAL SNGs, in hyper sats the EV is even alot more tiny (start with a smaller stack in relation to blinds and due to flat payout structure lower longterm ROI possible).

If I read right on your screenshot (it's not totally visible), you have over $1.1K positive EV at 7s over just over 100 games?
Please realize that this equals to about 150% ROI..

The payout structure in these is about 1/3 to breakeven pre rakeback. Thus, you can consider the variance and especially possible achievable ROI close to HU SNGs (the average player cashes 50% less often, but can also gain 50% more).
The variance can be alot worse, because of the more swingy structure,however the possible achievable ROI should be about the same (jorj95 just as example)

Edited by BeMyATMplz (Tuesday, February 25, 2014 @ 19:48 GMT)


     
  25-Feb-14, 20:36   #14
  0 
Theapple 

Joined: Sep '13
Location: Bosnia and Herzegovina
Age: 29 (M)
Posts: 1552
Posted by wullie:
i play 4/5 tables im giving up hyper turbos i like them but the amount of bad beats i get are insane cant handle the swings this game provides only person i know that profits these is jorj95 i lost around �6000 last year so im finnished wont be losing that much this year need to change what game i play thanks for comments guys

------------
note to BEMYATMPLZ stats dont lie ........


well by playing hypers you are askign for it Tongue variance is 'higher' in hypers simply because more people have to shove non premium hands most of the time, so your premium hands are also more likely to run into 47o who hits a straight, and stuff like that.

hypers are evil, pure evil. no seriously, they are
Big Smile

     
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