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  15-Apr-14, 15:09   #1
tell me the odds 0 
arrow-knee- 

Joined: Jul '12
Location: Netherlands
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 560
could someone tell me the odds of hm hitting the 5?


PokerStarshand #114818664247: Toernooi #885938866, Freeroll Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 15/04/2014 17:01:45 CET [15/04/2014 11:01:45 ET]
Tafel '885938866 358' 9-max Plaats #3 is de button
Plaats 1: arrow-knee- (1600 in chips)
Plaats 2: 7Mozart (1490 in chips)
Plaats 3: anToxep (1400 in chips)
Plaats 4: kartal115 (1510 in chips)
Plaats 5: yl645 (1500 in chips)
Plaats 6: rom.ber0510 (1500 in chips) zit uit
Plaats 7: luckyvall (1500 in chips)
Plaats 8: JokaHitler (1500 in chips)
Plaats 9: aljosa_poker (1500 in chips)
kartal115: zet small blind 10
yl645: zet big blind 20
*** GESLOTEN KAARTEN ***
Gedeeld aan arrow-knee- [9h 9s]
rom.ber0510: foldt
luckyvall: callt 20
yl645 zei, "wow"
rom.ber0510 is terug
yl645 zei, "what a beuti"
JokaHitler: raiset 180 naar 200
yl645 zei, "ben zona"
aljosa_poker: callt 200
arrow-knee-: raiset 1400 naar 1600 en is all-in

damn did not copy it good anyways i had 99 he had 55 other guy had 75 he hits 5 on the flop how big is that chance???

ty Big Smile

Edited by arrow-knee- (Tuesday, April 15, 2014 @ 15:12 GMT)


     
  15-Apr-14, 15:22   #2
  0 
bowie1984 

Joined: Apr '12
Location: Hungary
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 4685
You had around 75% chance to win this pre-flop.

     
  15-Apr-14, 15:28   #3
  0 
yout85 
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 2016
52 cards total
6 known cards leaves 46, 1 of which is a 5
So odds of hitting the 5 on the flop are 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 = 132/3, or 44/1, or 2.27%
Odds of catching at any point were 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 + 42/1 + 41/1 = 215/5, or 43/1, or 2.33%

     
  15-Apr-14, 15:29   #4
  0 
IceQueenAce 
Joined: Feb '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 40 (F)
Posts: 2196
you were 80%

55 was 10%

75 about 7% I think

so you will lose that 1 in five times

     
  15-Apr-14, 15:32   #5
  0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1631
1 - ((45/46) * (44/45) * (43/44)) = 6.5217%

i.e. out of the 46 cards we don't know, there is one 5 left, and 3 cards on the flop, so multiply the chances that each flopped card is not the five, and you have the chance that the flop does not have the five; one minus that chance is the chance the five hits the flop...

------------
Posted by yout85:
52 cards total
6 known cards leaves 46, 1 of which is a 5
So odds of hitting the 5 on the flop are 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 = 132/3, or 44/1, or 2.27%
Odds of catching at any point were 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 + 42/1 + 41/1 = 215/5, or 43/1, or 2.33%

I don't think that's correct, you need to approach it from the five not hitting any of the flopped cards...

     
  15-Apr-14, 15:36   #6
 
This post by IceQueenAce has been removed, probably due to being spam or because it was irrelevant to this topic.
  15-Apr-14, 15:39   #7
  0 
yout85 
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 2016
Posted by marqis:
1 - ((45/46) * (44/45) * (43/44)) = 6.5217%

i.e. out of the 46 cards we don't know, there is one 5 left, and 3 cards on the flop, so multiply the chances that each flopped card is not the five, and you have the chance that the flop does not have the five; one minus that chance is the chance the five hits the flop...

------------
Posted by yout85:
52 cards total
6 known cards leaves 46, 1 of which is a 5
So odds of hitting the 5 on the flop are 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 = 132/3, or 44/1, or 2.27%
Odds of catching at any point were 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 + 42/1 + 41/1 = 215/5, or 43/1, or 2.33%

I don't think that's correct, you need to approach it from the five not hitting any of the flopped cards...



Yep... it is wrong. Trying to do it in my head while pretending to work... if you multiply what I said by 5, you should be pretty spot on... so 11.65%

     
  15-Apr-14, 15:43   #8
  0 
Macubaas 
Joined: Apr '11
Location: Romania
Age: 27 (M)
Posts: 6668
The maths i saw above sound pretty close, i have to agree that if you want a very accurate answer find an online poker odds calculator...

Anyways even if the hand may seem to be rare it happens all the time, not exact this hand but similar stuff, especially on tournaments.

     
  15-Apr-14, 15:51   #9
  0 
arrow-knee- 

Joined: Jul '12
Location: Netherlands
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 560
thn for the info so i gues i was really unlucky Big Smile Big Smile Big Smile

     
  15-Apr-14, 15:51   #10
  0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1631
Posted by Macubaas:
The maths i saw above sound pretty close, i have to agree that if you want a very accurate answer find an online poker odds calculator...

Odds calculators show you your chances of winning the hand, they do not answer the question (i.e. what is the chance the one remaining five hits the flop).

I believe I gave an exact answer to the problem, but maybe someone can corroborate?

     
  15-Apr-14, 15:59   #11
  0 
arrow-knee- 

Joined: Jul '12
Location: Netherlands
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 560
Posted by yout85:
52 cards total
6 known cards leaves 46, 1 of which is a 5
So odds of hitting the 5 on the flop are 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 = 132/3, or 44/1, or 2.27%
Odds of catching at any point were 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 + 42/1 + 41/1 = 215/5, or 43/1, or 2.33%



so 2,33% means my luck is all out of juice Tongue

     
  15-Apr-14, 17:09   #12
  0 
pinotte 
Joined: Jun '13
Location: Canada
Age: 73 (M)
Posts: 3495
2.33% is right to it on the flop however there are two other cards to come.
1 out after the flop to the river is a bit over 4% so i would say that pre flop to the river would be something around 10%. Question Question

     
  15-Apr-14, 17:57   #13
  0 
demodawggy 

Joined: Feb '12
Location: Canada
Age: 56 (M)
Posts: 5682
I never calculate the odds of winning or losing a hand,... I use 2 criteria...

1) How much do I care about this game I'm in,....

2) What is the 'likelyhood' of winning this hand...

The more I care about the game,...the tighter I play..., but I would never shove preflop with 99 unless I couldn't care less... Smile

     
  15-Apr-14, 18:12   #14
  0 
Weenie 
Joined: Aug '12
Location: Slovakia
Age: 29 (M)
Posts: 679
Posted by yout85:
52 cards total
6 known cards leaves 46, 1 of which is a 5
So odds of hitting the 5 on the flop are 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 = 132/3, or 44/1, or 2.27%
Odds of catching at any point were 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 + 42/1 + 41/1 = 215/5, or 43/1, or 2.33%


man do not count odds like that anymore please Big Smile

After those thousands of hands you HAVE TO remember that hitting:

- 1 outer preflop is around 10% (its pretty rare)
- 2 outer 20% (pair vs pair)
- 3 outer 25% (dominating hands)
- 6 outer 50% (unpaired hand vs lower pair - coinflip)

- flopping 1 pair 33%
- flopping set 12%

thats just basics, how you can play without this knowledge?

     
  15-Apr-14, 18:54   #15
  0 
arrow-knee- 

Joined: Jul '12
Location: Netherlands
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 560
Posted by demodawggy:
I never calculate the odds of winning or losing a hand,... I use 2 criteria...

1) How much do I care about this game I'm in,....

2) What is the 'likelyhood' of winning this hand...

The more I care about the game,...the tighter I play..., but I would never shove preflop with 99 unless I couldn't care less... Smile


it was brm freeroll on ps so your spot on Big Smile

------------
how bout this one i have 9 10 guy raises 300 i hit straight on the flop 687 to spades 1 klub i have klubs he raises i reraise he kalls a 5 hits in spades but im pretty sure he doesn't have flush i go all in he kalls i show straight he shows 77 so three 7's last kard 5 ....................................

btw c is broken

but wtf..... Sad

that was the daily thousend on partypoker Disagree Disagree Disagree

Edited by arrow-knee- (Tuesday, April 15, 2014 @ 19:40 GMT)


     
  15-Apr-14, 22:06   #16
  0 
djpremier 
Joined: Dec '10
Location: Finland
Age: 24 (M)
Posts: 419
Posted by marqis:
Posted by Macubaas:
The maths i saw above sound pretty close, i have to agree that if you want a very accurate answer find an online poker odds calculator...

Odds calculators show you your chances of winning the hand, they do not answer the question (i.e. what is the chance the one remaining five hits the flop).

I believe I gave an exact answer to the problem, but maybe someone can corroborate?

Yea 1 - ((45/46) * (44/45) * (43/44)) is the exact answer.. which equals 3/46

     
  16-Apr-14, 09:41   #17
  0 
doubletop777 
Joined: Mar '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 47 (M)
Posts: 5552
To catch the case 5 is a terrible way to lose. The odds of him catching this on the river is about 2%, so in odds terms you were nearly 50/1 ON to win the hand. Very unlucky to lose this way but it does happen

     
  16-Apr-14, 15:18   #18
  0 
ddblt1970 
Joined: Aug '13
Location: Czech Republic
Age: 21 (M)
Posts: 913
Lol your mathematic (/combinatorics/probability counting) skills are very poor. Big Smile Big Smile Big Smile Big Smile

Only DJpremier got it right. The chance is exactly 3/46. = 6,5% chance of hitting on the flop
And almost 11% chance of hitting by the river.
Which isn´t that low chance.

     
  16-Apr-14, 16:00   #19
  0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1631
Posted by ddblt1970:
Only DJpremier got it right.

You did not get that statement right...
Blink

     
  16-Apr-14, 17:55   #20
  0 
MFZERO 
Joined: Oct '12
Location: Canada
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 129
Odds/ math are pretty much useless when a computer is involved.

More luck than anything.

Ex.: Full Tilt Poker Game #34136300853: BankrollMob $25 Freeroll (265583285), Table 90 - NL Hold'em - 2500/5000 Ante 600 - 10:43:58 PT - 2014/04/16 [13:43:58 ET - 2014/04/16]
Seat 3: alexp7910 (49,692)
Seat 5: MFZERO (74,214)
Seat 6: Quoyaw (57,989)
Seat 7: GabTender27 (158,652)
Seat 8: Reblaude (87,337), is sitting out
Seat 9: vadim_terelia (156,540)
alexp7910 antes 600
MFZERO antes 600
Quoyaw antes 600
GabTender27 antes 600
Reblaude antes 600
vadim_terelia antes 600
Reblaude posts the small blind of 2,500
vadim_terelia posts the big blind of 5,000
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MFZERO [Jh Jd]
alexp7910 raises to 10,000
MFZERO raises to 25,000
Quoyaw folds
GabTender27 folds
Reblaude folds
vadim_terelia calls 20,000
alexp7910 calls 15,000
*** FLOP *** [2s 5s 5d] (Total Pot: 81,100, 3 Players)
vadim_terelia bets 30,000
alexp7910 has 15 seconds left to act
alexp7910 folds
MFZERO raises to 48,614, and is all in
vadim_terelia calls 18,614
MFZERO shows [Jh Jd]
vadim_terelia shows [9h 9c]
*** TURN *** [2s 5s 5d] 7 of hearts (Total Pot: 178,328, 2 Players, 1 All-In)
*** RIVER *** [2s 5s 5d 7h] 9 of spades (Total Pot: 178,328, 2 Players, 1 All-In)
MFZERO shows two pair, Jacks and Fives
vadim_terelia shows a full house, Nines full of Fives
vadim_terelia wins the pot (178,328) with a full house, Nines full of Fives
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 178,328 | Rake 0
Board: [2s 5s 5d 7h 9s]
Seat 3: alexp7910 folded on the Flop
Seat 5: MFZERO showed [Jh Jd] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Fives
Seat 6: Quoyaw folded before the Flop
Seat 7: GabTender27 (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: Reblaude (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: vadim_terelia (big blind) showed [9h 9c] and won (178,328) with a full house, Nines full of Fives


     
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