could someone tell me the odds of hm hitting the 5?

PokerStarshand #114818664247: Toernooi #885938866, Freeroll Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 15/04/2014 17:01:45 CET [15/04/2014 11:01:45 ET] Tafel '885938866 358' 9-max Plaats #3 is de button Plaats 1: arrow-knee- (1600 in chips) Plaats 2: 7Mozart (1490 in chips) Plaats 3: anToxep (1400 in chips) Plaats 4: kartal115 (1510 in chips) Plaats 5: yl645 (1500 in chips) Plaats 6: rom.ber0510 (1500 in chips) zit uit Plaats 7: luckyvall (1500 in chips) Plaats 8: JokaHitler (1500 in chips) Plaats 9: aljosa_poker (1500 in chips) kartal115: zet small blind 10 yl645: zet big blind 20 *** GESLOTEN KAARTEN *** Gedeeld aan arrow-knee- [9h 9s] rom.ber0510: foldt luckyvall: callt 20 yl645 zei, "wow" rom.ber0510 is terug yl645 zei, "what a beuti" JokaHitler: raiset 180 naar 200 yl645 zei, "ben zona" aljosa_poker: callt 200 arrow-knee-: raiset 1400 naar 1600 en is all-in

damn did not copy it good anyways i had 99 he had 55 other guy had 75 he hits 5 on the flop how big is that chance???

ty

Edited by arrow-knee- (Tuesday, April 15, 2014 @ 15:12 GMT)

Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 2052

52 cards total 6 known cards leaves 46, 1 of which is a 5 So odds of hitting the 5 on the flop are 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 = 132/3, or 44/1, or 2.27% Odds of catching at any point were 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 + 42/1 + 41/1 = 215/5, or 43/1, or 2.33%

i.e. out of the 46 cards we don't know, there is one 5 left, and 3 cards on the flop, so multiply the chances that each flopped card is not the five, and you have the chance that the flop does not have the five; one minus that chance is the chance the five hits the flop...

------------

Posted by yout85: 52 cards total 6 known cards leaves 46, 1 of which is a 5 So odds of hitting the 5 on the flop are 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 = 132/3, or 44/1, or 2.27% Odds of catching at any point were 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 + 42/1 + 41/1 = 215/5, or 43/1, or 2.33%

I don't think that's correct, you need to approach it from the five not hitting any of the flopped cards...

i.e. out of the 46 cards we don't know, there is one 5 left, and 3 cards on the flop, so multiply the chances that each flopped card is not the five, and you have the chance that the flop does not have the five; one minus that chance is the chance the five hits the flop...

------------

Posted by yout85: 52 cards total 6 known cards leaves 46, 1 of which is a 5 So odds of hitting the 5 on the flop are 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 = 132/3, or 44/1, or 2.27% Odds of catching at any point were 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 + 42/1 + 41/1 = 215/5, or 43/1, or 2.33%

I don't think that's correct, you need to approach it from the five not hitting any of the flopped cards...

Yep... it is wrong. Trying to do it in my head while pretending to work... if you multiply what I said by 5, you should be pretty spot on... so 11.65%

Posted by Macubaas: The maths i saw above sound pretty close, i have to agree that if you want a very accurate answer find an online poker odds calculator...

Odds calculators show you your chances of winning the hand, they do not answer the question (i.e. what is the chance the one remaining five hits the flop).

I believe I gave an exact answer to the problem, but maybe someone can corroborate?

Posted by yout85: 52 cards total 6 known cards leaves 46, 1 of which is a 5 So odds of hitting the 5 on the flop are 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 = 132/3, or 44/1, or 2.27% Odds of catching at any point were 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 + 42/1 + 41/1 = 215/5, or 43/1, or 2.33%

Joined: Jun '13
Location: Canada
Age: 74 (M)
Posts: 3700

2.33% is right to it on the flop however there are two other cards to come. 1 out after the flop to the river is a bit over 4% so i would say that pre flop to the river would be something around 10%.

Joined: Aug '12
Location: Slovakia
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 688

Posted by yout85: 52 cards total 6 known cards leaves 46, 1 of which is a 5 So odds of hitting the 5 on the flop are 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 = 132/3, or 44/1, or 2.27% Odds of catching at any point were 45/1 + 44/1 + 43/1 + 42/1 + 41/1 = 215/5, or 43/1, or 2.33%

man do not count odds like that anymore please

After those thousands of hands you HAVE TO remember that hitting:

- 1 outer preflop is around 10% (its pretty rare) - 2 outer 20% (pair vs pair) - 3 outer 25% (dominating hands) - 6 outer 50% (unpaired hand vs lower pair - coinflip)

- flopping 1 pair 33% - flopping set 12%

thats just basics, how you can play without this knowledge?

------------ how bout this one i have 9 10 guy raises 300 i hit straight on the flop 687 to spades 1 klub i have klubs he raises i reraise he kalls a 5 hits in spades but im pretty sure he doesn't have flush i go all in he kalls i show straight he shows 77 so three 7's last kard 5 ....................................

Joined: Dec '10
Location: Finland
Age: 25 (M)
Posts: 428

Posted by marqis:

Posted by Macubaas: The maths i saw above sound pretty close, i have to agree that if you want a very accurate answer find an online poker odds calculator...

Odds calculators show you your chances of winning the hand, they do not answer the question (i.e. what is the chance the one remaining five hits the flop).

I believe I gave an exact answer to the problem, but maybe someone can corroborate?

Yea 1 - ((45/46) * (44/45) * (43/44)) is the exact answer.. which equals 3/46

Joined: Mar '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 49 (M)
Posts: 6621

To catch the case 5 is a terrible way to lose. The odds of him catching this on the river is about 2%, so in odds terms you were nearly 50/1 ON to win the hand. Very unlucky to lose this way but it does happen

Lol your mathematic (/combinatorics/probability counting) skills are very poor.

Only DJpremier got it right. The chance is exactly 3/46. = 6,5% chance of hitting on the flop And almost 11% chance of hitting by the river. Which isn´t that low chance.

Joined: Oct '12
Location: Canada
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 129

Odds/ math are pretty much useless when a computer is involved.

More luck than anything.

Ex.: Full TiltPoker Game #34136300853: BankrollMob $25 Freeroll (265583285), Table 90 - NL Hold'em - 2500/5000 Ante 600 - 10:43:58 PT - 2014/04/16 [13:43:58 ET - 2014/04/16] Seat 3: alexp7910 (49,692) Seat 5: MFZERO (74,214) Seat 6: Quoyaw (57,989) Seat 7: GabTender27 (158,652) Seat 8: Reblaude (87,337), is sitting out Seat 9: vadim_terelia (156,540) alexp7910 antes 600 MFZERO antes 600 Quoyaw antes 600 GabTender27 antes 600 Reblaude antes 600 vadim_terelia antes 600 Reblaude posts the small blind of 2,500 vadim_terelia posts the big blind of 5,000 The button is in seat #7 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to MFZERO [Jh Jd] alexp7910 raises to 10,000 MFZERO raises to 25,000 Quoyaw folds GabTender27 folds Reblaude folds vadim_terelia calls 20,000 alexp7910 calls 15,000 *** FLOP *** [2s 5s 5d] (Total Pot: 81,100, 3 Players) vadim_terelia bets 30,000 alexp7910 has 15 seconds left to act alexp7910 folds MFZERO raises to 48,614, and is all in vadim_terelia calls 18,614 MFZERO shows [Jh Jd] vadim_terelia shows [9h 9c] *** TURN *** [2s 5s 5d] (Total Pot: 178,328, 2 Players, 1 All-In) *** RIVER *** [2s 5s 5d 7h] (Total Pot: 178,328, 2 Players, 1 All-In) MFZERO shows two pair, Jacks and Fives vadim_terelia shows a full house, Nines full of Fives vadim_terelia wins the pot (178,328) with a full house, Nines full of Fives *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 178,328 | Rake 0 Board: [2s 5s 5d 7h 9s] Seat 3: alexp7910 folded on the Flop Seat 5: MFZERO showed [Jh Jd] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Fives Seat 6: Quoyaw folded before the Flop Seat 7: GabTender27 (button) folded before the Flop Seat 8: Reblaude (small blind) folded before the Flop Seat 9: vadim_terelia (big blind) showed [9h 9c] and won (178,328) with a full house, Nines full of Fives