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  29-Aug-14, 18:46   #1
$26 MTT ICM question and analysis bubble. 0 
AceMilo 
Joined: Aug '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 51 (M)
Posts: 17
Hello there all,
SO I was playing some MTTS on Full Tilt today and on one of them I was in the bubble, 20 players left and 18 got paid, when I was on the button with JJ and only the SB and BB were to act. With only 15-17BBs I shoved my JJ (SB was a nit and BB was on a high heater pushing with so many marginal hands all in and luck boxed and his stack was 4 times larger than mine)
Is this an ICM mistake? Doubling up would have assured me a final table place. if I played TAG until then.
JJ, he calls with AJ. I knew his calling range was wide enough so with his assumed range I ran it through poker stove and I was 58% favourite. Then he flipped AJ over and I was 68% favourite. The flop came 3 aces and I lost to quads. Any mistake here? Should l I have raised. I knew he would have 3 bet light anyway. Still I could have folded on the flop when 3 aces showed. Any constructive feedback welcomed. This hand has been irking me for a while now so thought I'd post it. Dollar Aww crap!

     
  29-Aug-14, 18:53   #2
  0 
demodawggy 

Joined: Feb '12
Location: Canada
Age: 56 (M)
Posts: 5680
That hand troubles a LOT of folks dude,...as it USED to me,...until I tweaked my tactics... I just don't shove them anymore really... I tend to just call or raise,...or bet low when leading off... I just play them like a stronger pair...

"ANALysis,....... BUBBLES....." .....???

Mmmmmmmmmmmm...... Seems like the last time there was any interaction between my anus and anything that would produce 'Bubbles, such as 'bathwater',...and which smells bad like the outcome of your hand,...was quite a number of decades back now,....gee,...back when I was a little kid farting in the bathtub and laughing about it....!!! Big Smile

     
  29-Aug-14, 19:00   #3
  0 
pinotte 
Joined: Jun '13
Location: Canada
Age: 73 (M)
Posts: 3490
You said you where in the bubble so ITM and whith the information that you had and the stacks in your place i would have just folded preflop.

The risk was too big being ITM there was ho hurry and you could have wait and if no other occasion comes after the bubble at least you collect a bit of Dollar Dollar Dollar Dollar Dollar Dollar

It irs always better a little than nothink. Worship Worship Worship Worship Worship Worship

     
  29-Aug-14, 19:17   #4
  0 
DDPascalDD 
Joined: Jan '14
Location: Netherlands
Age: 26 (M)
Posts: 508
That's true but you can better risk to be out before ITM and aiming for an higher place than always playing very tight at/before the bubble because the prizes go up exponentially!

     
  29-Aug-14, 19:59   #5
  0 
vsemoje 
Joined: Feb '13
Location: Slovenia
Age: 34 (M)
Posts: 515
You play MTTs for win so i would never fold...folding for ITM is soooo bad u have to gain stack so u can take it down. (satelites are different story but we are talking about mtt )
As u said SB was nit and BB loose so i would minraise/call vs BB with ur 15-17bb stack and fold vs SB shove.
And if it was turbo structure i would just shove like u did.

     
  29-Aug-14, 20:00   #6
  0 
LIKEIT27 
Joined: Jul '08
Location: Netherlands
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 704
Iff you wanna do it icm wise and wanna know you should have,
Give the information about how many chips every one have and how high the blinds ect ect
I can calculate it for u Blink


Sooo how did you run it tru pokerstove?
You take yourself with j/j on the bu...
BB a/j ...suited? of? and Sb you didnt calculate?
'
I used different software...then pokerstove
YOU----J/J
BB----A/j off


Preflop All-in ----- Equity
You ----69.44%
BB ---- 30.65%
Soooo 10 times all-in you should win 7 times
-----But thats only when you know the hand Blink


Thats not theoraticaly what you asking because you ask iff youre push is ok against a nit and at heater at the BB ...
What range did you put the nit on 5% best starting hands ?
And the heater you had him wide soooooo shove is not sooo bad...
But you had stil 15/17 BB you could have played raise/fold 3/4 bb depends on the play
But he still could have shoved all in before you see the flop
...you should call then...(because you say hes wide)
You raise preflop,he only calls flop is a Dry board go all in then..
But a lot of it depends on the nit how mutch chip did he have ...
If it was lower then you and you had him way covered.

Then i think you didnt play it bad
iff you hit the board you happy....,
Iff not you asking yourself the question hmmm
All-IN------------raise/fold ....iff a higher card comes on board...

I think you could play it two ways and nothing bad to say about that
Blink

Edited by LIKEIT27 (Friday, August 29, 2014 @ 20:35 GMT)


     
  30-Aug-14, 09:29   #7
  +1 
BeMyATMplz 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 1854
How can in this hand really be the word "fold" included?
If we had 77 it's be a different story (even then it's a clear shove), but JJ is a super easy raise/call here, even if a player of the nitty side shoves to your 2x open he's rarely shoving not wide enough to call JJ profitably. Players classed as nits over small sample can still get aggro in the right spots, so chances are he shoves 66 or some hand like that to your 2x btn open, meaning calling against him is profitable. To a BB shove no question about calling.
You've put BBs calling range in pokerstove and get only 58% equity? Then either the range you estimate is way too tight or you play too tight so that BB calls tighter.
Anyways, I have no clue how we can argue about folding here. Therei is no possible way that this can be folded. The question we should ask instead is if we get more value by shoving or by raise/calling. If one wants to get ITM in an MTT so badly then they shouldn't be playing them at all.
In close spots in difficult situations you should fold to get ITM, however this spot is far,far away from that.
In short: raise/call > shoving >>>>>>>>>>> folding (even considering to)

Edited by BeMyATMplz (Saturday, August 30, 2014 @ 09:40 GMT)


     
  30-Aug-14, 09:36   #8
  0 
zeroster 

Joined: May '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 51 (M)
Posts: 1372
Posted by BeMyATMplz:
If one wants to get ITM in an MTT so badly then they shouldn't be playing them at all.


^^^ This. If you're happy to take a min cash you should be playing STT's instead.

     
  30-Aug-14, 09:46   #9
  0 
Skpmorita 
Joined: Feb '14
Location: Tunisia
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 2076
you did nothing wrong

     
  30-Aug-14, 10:24   #10
  0 
Theapple 

Joined: Sep '13
Location: Bosnia and Herzegovina
Age: 29 (M)
Posts: 1552
yea it was correct play imo, not much you could there and giving up on such a hand at that point would be a huge mistake (imo ofc). heck, shoving much worse hands woul still be a good move and at that point JJ really is a monster hand

     
  30-Aug-14, 14:37   #11
  0 
pinotte 
Joined: Jun '13
Location: Canada
Age: 73 (M)
Posts: 3490
I am not sorry to be a tight BR manager. I never lost my BR and i play a lot of freeroll.

I just think that after the bubble the game is not over and you can have more occasion to increase your stack and go deeper in the tournament i am not talking about just making ITM and stop playing.

When i won $20.00 deposit to party poker last december BRM calandar i was not playing there anymore and i had to reinstall the software to get the money My BR is now a bit over $300.00
it iis not great but i think not to bad for a guy that is thight with is BR.

Now if one want to make fast money i have nothink about that do it at your own risk. Confused Confused Confused Confused Confused

As for you zeroster i read your thread busto and sattalite moron i think i dont have any lesson to take from you Tongue Tongue Tongue

Edited by pinotte (Saturday, August 30, 2014 @ 15:21 GMT)


     
  30-Aug-14, 16:50   #12
  0 
Heskor 
Joined: May '13
Location: Mauritius
Age: 25 (M)
Posts: 2659
Hmm do not think i would be able to advice you on that hand as i do not play this limit and most of my games are mostly freerolls and so on. So not much experience with the big buying MTTs. Anyway good luck mate at the tables, something bad shits happens even when we are favorite , just have a good bankroll management system which i think you should have if you play those limits and you are all set for making lots of money on the mtts. Cheers mate have fun at the tables and good luck in the MTTS!

     
  30-Aug-14, 18:41   #13
  0 
BeMyATMplz 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 1854
Posted by pinotte:
I am not sorry to be a tight BR manager. I never lost my BR and i play a lot of freeroll.

I just think that after the bubble the game is not over and you can have more occasion to increase your stack and go deeper in the tournament i am not talking about just making ITM and stop playing.

When i won $20.00 deposit to party poker last december BRM calandar i was not playing there anymore and i had to reinstall the software to get the money My BR is now a bit over $300.00
it iis not great but i think not to bad for a guy that is thight with is BR.

Now if one want to make fast money i have nothink about that do it at your own risk. Confused Confused Confused Confused Confused

As for you zeroster i read your thread busto and sattalite moron i think i dont have any lesson to take from you Tongue Tongue Tongue

There are some correct aspects in your thinking, however it also collides with what's a fact. You say the game is not over after ITM, yeah this is true, and that's the reason why we can never ever just fold preflop here. It's corrext to let go close spots, if we have 15BB in this spot then for example 86s is a borderline hand that shoving is just slightly +EV, but to get ITM probably correct to fold. But before I fold JJ here I might as well just quit the game of poker.

     
  30-Aug-14, 19:15   #14
  0 
LIKEIT27 
Joined: Jul '08
Location: Netherlands
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 704
Just to be sure when i spoke aboute raise/fold
I ment first raise 3/4 big blinds then iff a higher boards hit u can fold...when he raise,
But it depends what u want i insta shove also most off the times
but sometimes you get beaten on the turn ore river,,,,,
Sooooo you could shove there on the flop when nothing hits the opponent might get away from the hand Blink

     
  30-Aug-14, 19:50   #15
  0 
BeMyATMplz 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 1854
Usually in a $26 MTT people will be good enough to not flat you if you open with that stacksize, usually you pick up the blinds or they 3bet shove you preflop. Raising 3 or even 4 BB with that stacksize is unnecessary, with 30bb or less effective stacksize you should only open 2.5x at the absolute max (except for shoving),otherwise you have low fold equity after the big raise and your range is pretty nutted (e.g. villains are less likely to shove on your raise because you will fold less often).
Alsp, why would you want them to get away from the hand? If you indeed get to postflop play, and the flop is 5/8/10, and villain has K10 then you don't want h im to get away, you want max. value at all times.

     
  30-Aug-14, 20:49   #16
  0 
zeroster 

Joined: May '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 51 (M)
Posts: 1372
Posted by pinotte:
As for you zeroster i read your thread busto and sattalite moron i think i dont have any lesson to take from you Tongue Tongue Tongue


Ouch!! I, personally think everyone has at least something they could teach me. Smile .

But hey why should you listen to me, I'm only reiterating what pretty much every pro tournament player says.

     
  30-Aug-14, 21:17   #17
  0 
BeMyATMplz 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 1854
Although it is off topic, I've read both of zero's threads and can't see anything wrong in it. It's obvious that in the "broke" thread that zero bankrollmanagement was applied, surely the most important thing in poker, but it doesn't mean one is a bad player. During my cashgame expirience very early on I also applied very loose BRM, however over that time I still played 50K hands of 0.10/0.20 FL at 4bb/100, a winrate that can hardly even be achieved anymore nowdays. I think managing a bankroll and playing overall are 2 seperate kinds of skill, managing a bankroll shouldn't influence on someone's way of play, no matter if one uses 10 buy ins or 100 buy ins BRM, there is one way to get max. EV off of a hand, and that's how we should play, no matter how tight or lopse our money management is.

     
  30-Aug-14, 21:55   #18
  0 
djpremier 
Joined: Dec '10
Location: Finland
Age: 24 (M)
Posts: 419
ICM depends on stacksizes and prizes so it's hard to say...Anyway I think folding JJ here is just about always a mistake...maybe if the UTG guy in both tables had VERY small stacks left and SB and BB both had you covered and were very loose you could think about it...maybe not even then...different stacksizes can make very drastic changes to push/fold ranges when you consider ICM...
But yeah...15bb stack, dealt JJ, folds to button...openfolding and bet/folding both sound a little crazy don't they ?

     
  31-Aug-14, 07:58   #19
  0 
mgabesz 
Joined: Mar '11
Location: Hungary
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 153
I really hate JJ the trickiest and most dangerous pair. Really not so better than 10-10 for example. Even a KJ KQ AJ AQ can esalily hit a better card. I lost about 65% of when I have JJ if I start the hand with bigger stack and favourite as well. Sometimes if you are quite a short stack could be a great chace because better than an Ace with
big kicker whole card before the flop but that is all...

     
  31-Aug-14, 18:57   #20
  0 
DDPascalDD 
Joined: Jan '14
Location: Netherlands
Age: 26 (M)
Posts: 508
Where can I download pokerstove, LIKEIT?
I searched for it but I couldn't find a good download!

     
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