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  2-Sep-14, 09:52   #1
$26 MTT Suckout (but with rational analysis) 0 
AceMilo 
Joined: Aug '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 51 (M)
Posts: 17
Hello there all,
So I was playing my routine MTT this morning late-regged half an hour in, blinds at level 3 (end of late reg is level 12). I came across AK suited, 3rd hand in and 3bet the raiser who was 2nd (UTG +1). My 3bet was called by the BB and the original raiser. Flop came 3 3 K. I know I'm ahead since I know lower pocket pairs like JJ, TT and down to 88 with of course AQ and AJ minimum will be in both their ranges (original raiser narrower).
The turn came a jack. I shoved and he called with JJ, full house to my 2 pair. Only JJ would shave beat me here and he had it. The other guy called and lost also. He had some random air but the original raiser had the JJ. Only JJ out of all other premium hands would have beat me on that river (besides AA) but I had a lack of info since it was early and wanted to always avoid these spots but when your dealt AKs what do you do???
I shoved many more times and managed to get from 210 chips to 2000 chips (average was 3500) Then I bust to the same guy again (who was busting everybody else) I feel this happens too often and this lis why I always late-reg these tourneys. At least an hour in when blinds are at lvl 6 so I can avoid these monkeys. I have had no cashes this whole month, whatever, Im taking 3 weeks off to cool off.

Me: AK
Initial raiser: JJ
Limper K9
Flop K33
Turn J Aww crap! Aww crap! Aww crap! Confused

     
  2-Sep-14, 10:07   #2
  0 
zeroster 

Joined: May '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 51 (M)
Posts: 1372
That's unlucky, looks you played the hand correctly to me.

One thing I would take issue with though is this:

Posted by AceMilo:
this lis why I always late-reg these tourneys. At least an hour in when blinds are at lvl 6 so I can avoid these monkeys.


Essentially what you're saying is that you would rather enter the tournament with a short stack and only the good players left. Surely that puts you at a huge disadvantage.

     
  2-Sep-14, 10:35   #3
  0 
AceMilo 
Joined: Aug '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 51 (M)
Posts: 17
When you late reg at level 6 you have 30bb instead of 40bb and personally I am slightly less comfortable with my 40bb play because I get too loose and at the beginning with 40 at least for the first hour so late regging allows me to pace myself better with less risk since you can still play creatively with 30bbs.

     
  2-Sep-14, 10:45   #4
  0 
zeroster 

Joined: May '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 51 (M)
Posts: 1372
Yeah I suppose it's not that huge a difference. I just prefer to register at lvl 1 and try to catch some of the fish. Still it's horses for courses and if it works for you why change it?

     
  2-Sep-14, 10:59   #5
  0 
Samarietis 
Joined: Feb '12
Location: Latvia
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 163
Yeah today for me is a suck out day as well , especially at hyper turbo 1$ 180 player SNG
http://www.boomplayer.com/lv/poker-hands/Boom/10607981_...
http://www.boomplayer.com/lv/poker-hands/Boom/10607975_...
http://www.boomplayer.com/lv/poker-hands/Boom/10608090_...

Edited by Samarietis (Tuesday, September 02, 2014 @ 11:21 GMT)


     
  2-Sep-14, 14:49   #6
  +2 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
You didn't describe your play on the flop.. So it's a little hard as to agree whether or not it was a 'suckout'.

Also - if the MAJORITY of the chips went in on the turn, when villian was ahead, then it definitely wasn't a suckout; you just got your chips in bad.

It's only a suckout if you get your chips in good and lose to an unlucky turn/river.

Also - never say "i knew I was ahead" - you didn't and you can't. You can be ahead of a range, but you never know for certain that you're ahead of the specific cards a villain holds.

------------
Can you please post again, but this time include stack sizes (in big blinds, not the actual value of chips), And then describe the play at each street..

------------
Also - deliberately late-regging to a tourney is stupid. Seriously, it's not a good move and you can't rationalise it in any way that makes good sense.

It's fine to late-reg, if you have to, but don't do it deliberately.

------------
If you play poorly with a 40bb stack compared to a 30bb stack, then work on your play. Don't neglect improving your game in favour of playing at a disadvantage but with a stack size you're more comfortable with. The obvious solution is to continue entering at lvl1 with a 40bb stack and learn to work this to your advantage. The alternative is defeatist.

Edited by jessthehuman (Tuesday, September 02, 2014 @ 14:54 GMT)


     
  2-Sep-14, 15:29   #7
  0 
yout85 
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 2016
Posted by jessthehuman:
You didn't describe your play on the flop.. So it's a little hard as to agree whether or not it was a 'suckout'.

Also - if the MAJORITY of the chips went in on the turn, when villian was ahead, then it definitely wasn't a suckout; you just got your chips in bad.

It's only a suckout if you get your chips in good and lose to an unlucky turn/river.

Also - never say "i knew I was ahead" - you didn't and you can't. You can be ahead of a range, but you never know for certain that you're ahead of the specific cards a villain holds.

------------
Can you please post again, but this time include stack sizes (in big blinds, not the actual value of chips), And then describe the play at each street..

------------
Also - deliberately late-regging to a tourney is stupid. Seriously, it's not a good move and you can't rationalise it in any way that makes good sense.

It's fine to late-reg, if you have to, but don't do it deliberately.

------------
If you play poorly with a 40bb stack compared to a 30bb stack, then work on your play. Don't neglect improving your game in favour of playing at a disadvantage but with a stack size you're more comfortable with. The obvious solution is to continue entering at lvl1 with a 40bb stack and learn to work this to your advantage. The alternative is defeatist.


...Spot on as ever Jess.

AceMilo - By your own definition of "suckout", (which seems to be catching an out when behind) you sucked out on the Jacks first... It was an unlucky turn for you - but can't be described as a suckout...

It's true you could be fairly sure you were ahead on the flop... ruling out Aces, because of no 4-bet in a 3-way hand... Ruling out K3 because, well... it's unlikely someone would stick around with K3 in a 3-bet pot... and ruling out pocket 3s, because well... who flops quads??? and ruling out anyone holding a 3 because they "shouldn't have a 3"...

But then some people play Aces very strangely... either player could've had aces...
Some people would raise K3 suited, and wouldn't fold to a 3-bet... the original raiser could've had K3...
And sometimes... people flop quads... Either player could've had 33...
A3 suited is a calling hand... even a raising hand sometimes... Either player could've had a 3.

After the turn, all of those hands still beat you, along with JJ... but so does KJ... which wouldn't totally be out of the question given the way the hand played out...


Basically, there were many ways you COULD HAVE lost this hand... and one of them happened. At no point could you KNOW you were infront... though I would've strongly suspected it myself.

In summary - no suckout. A little unlucky.. good read, but you can never be SURE you're right.

     
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