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  13-Oct-14, 11:00   #1
Thinking seriously about going for Supernova next year... +2 
yout85 
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 2016
Been putting some serious thought just recently about going for Supernova next year - So I intend to use the rest of this year as a "trial period" to see if it's doable.

You need 100,000 FPP in a year to achieve it, so that's an average of ~274 a day... but factoring in the fact I'll need some days off now and then, it's more like 300 FPP per day. You get 5.5 FPP for every $1 in rake, so that means rake per day of roughly $55 will be enough. Not exactly sure on how much rake there is nowadays on the MTT SNGs, but assuming rake of 10% that will require $600 buy ins per day - which would be ~170 $3.50 buy in tournaments.... So obviously I'll need to play above that level - probably a mixture of $3.50 & $7.00 buy ins...

To get maximum traffic, I think I'd also be mixing Turbo/Non-Turbo and 45/90/180...

I know BeMyATMplz has mentioned he may be going for it next year too... would be cool to have two Supernova Mobsters Cool

     
  13-Oct-14, 11:53   #2
  0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1631
Good luck with that!

Seems like a lot of work. Especially when doing it by playing MTT, since you play a long time for relatively low rake (which is actually a good thing, but makes this challenge harder).

I wonder how many supernova's there are, and if they are not mostly cash game players...?

     
  13-Oct-14, 12:32   #3
  0 
Skpmorita 
Joined: Feb '14
Location: Tunisia
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 2076
that is alot of poker
also you have to be winning or you will end up losing much for this so you have that pressure
and if you do win , you gonna have an urge to withdraw , i personally cant resist that Big Smile
why not go for cash games ?
if you play decent games , the rake will build up really fast
and don't forgot if you keep improving your statut , you will be able to gain more FPP faster and for lesser rake
good luck with this challenge , i really don't care about my VIP statut , the most important to me is win big amount so i can improve my life , aren't we all ? Tongue

     
  13-Oct-14, 12:53   #4
  0 
xgcsnippy 

Joined: Jan '13
Location: Canada
Age: 38 (M)
Posts: 1066
Usually when I am going for silver Ill start off with 15 bucks, play a 50/50 and take those winnings on one to go play a cash table, invest in another one and take the winnings and play a 2nd cash table.....I use my winnings to play cash tables.


     
  13-Oct-14, 13:00   #5
  0 
shokaku 

Joined: May '08
Location: Germany
Age: 51 (M)
Posts: 6233
An average of 170 SnGs a day, every day? Good luck with that one. Maybe you should try to play higher stakes than $3.50 first, and aim at that long term target of Stars-Supernova later.

     
  13-Oct-14, 13:07   #6
  0 
yout85 
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 2016
Posted by shokaku:
An average of 170 SnGs a day, every day? Good luck with that one. Maybe you should try to play higher stakes than $3.50 first, and aim at that long term target of Stars-Supernova later.


170 SNGs @ $3.50... That's why I said I'll have to throw in $7 ones too. So maybe closer to 100 per day... Still a major ask, but doable I think... I'll still be playing some Scheduled MTTs at times... Will try to avoid cash tables, but IDK...

I'll use my trial period wisely and see what will work for me.

     
  13-Oct-14, 13:12   #7
  0 
arsenej1 

Joined: Mar '09
Location: Canada
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 3020
Dont forget when u move up levels u get points faster for less.

     
  13-Oct-14, 13:18   #8
  0 
yout85 
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 2016
Posted by arsenej1:
Dont forget when u move up levels u get points faster for less.


The FPP required for Supernova is 100,000... the bonus VPP do not count towards that total. So you need to earn base FPP of 100,000, but by that time you would have IDK... 200-250k in VPP.

I would be flying through the Stellar rewards, and would be buying the cash prizes with my points - so the income would be far higher when I'm a higher level.

     
  13-Oct-14, 13:20   #9
  0 
crash58 
Joined: Oct '08
Location: Canada
Age: 58 (M)
Posts: 2423
wow reaching super nova would be some feat, but i think it would be hard to reach with those buyin levels, i think you would have to live in front of your computer, and it would take a large sum of money( unless you did a lot of winning). i think most super nova players play multi cash tables. any ways good luck in this challenge. as usual i'm rooting for you Thumbs Up

     
  13-Oct-14, 13:32   #10
  0 
BeMyATMplz 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 1854
Yeah I'll be going for it next year Smile
However I don't think with the game selection you plan on that you're going to make it, unless you quit your job.
If supernova really is your number one goal then I'd recommend to better stick to 9 mans or 18 mans, these are just as easy to multitable as 45s/180s but have a much lower average duration time (as for turbos at least) and more traffic.
I myself will be playing $7 and $15 STTs (6 and 9 mans), however I moved to non turbos (because of much higher winrates, $1/game easily possible, at turbos you gotta be happy about 3% ROI nowdays).
Also will add $30s once I get a solid sample and winrate at $15s.
Even doing it this way it's still gonna be hard.
I make about 400VPPs on a playing-day per day playing $7s and $15s, however I don't play every day obv., and neither should you.

Playing $3.50 and $7 45 mans will require you to play about 5 hours continous, while playing at least 25 tables, that's hard enough itself, but over time your winrate will suffer from it too because I know from expirience that you will sometimes just "force" you in front of the screen, which never will lead to playing your A-Game.

So what I'd recommend - play $7 non turbo STTs (I play 9 mans non turbo regulars, 9 mans non turbo KOs and 6 max regulars, regging in sets of 25-30 games), build a healthy roll from them, the swings aren't gonna be huge (having a high winrate (which really isnt hard, because the fish-reg ratio is much better plus not many regs are really good IMO) a downswing of $300 is the max I'd say), and see if 9 mans suit you.
Practise with SNGWiz or ICMizer for the ICM spots (because it's really a whole lot different from your usual games).
If you have success, just move up in stakes (as in mix in $15s (game selecting will become very important starting from $15s, for turbos it's already important for $7s) and mix in turbos as well. Money and VPPs will come by themself Smile

     
  13-Oct-14, 13:39   #11
  0 
Phisix 

Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 2216
Would be great if you two could reach it. Hopefully you both have your own blog threads on your roads to Supernova as they would be an interesting read.

     
  13-Oct-14, 14:08   #12
  0 
yout85 
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 2016
Posted by BeMyATMplz:
Yeah I'll be going for it next year Smile
However I don't think with the game selection you plan on that you're going to make it, unless you quit your job.
If supernova really is your number one goal then I'd recommend to better stick to 9 mans or 18 mans, these are just as easy to multitable as 45s/180s but have a much lower average duration time (as for turbos at least) and more traffic.
I myself will be playing $7 and $15 STTs (6 and 9 mans), however I moved to non turbos (because of much higher winrates, $1/game easily possible, at turbos you gotta be happy about 3% ROI nowdays).
Also will add $30s once I get a solid sample and winrate at $15s.
Even doing it this way it's still gonna be hard.
I make about 400VPPs on a playing-day per day playing $7s and $15s, however I don't play every day obv., and neither should you.

Playing $3.50 and $7 45 mans will require you to play about 5 hours continous, while playing at least 25 tables, that's hard enough itself, but over time your winrate will suffer from it too because I know from expirience that you will sometimes just "force" you in front of the screen, which never will lead to playing your A-Game.

So what I'd recommend - play $7 non turbo STTs (I play 9 mans non turbo regulars, 9 mans non turbo KOs and 6 max regulars, regging in sets of 25-30 games), build a healthy roll from them, the swings aren't gonna be huge (having a high winrate (which really isnt hard, because the fish-reg ratio is much better plus not many regs are really good IMO) a downswing of $300 is the max I'd say), and see if 9 mans suit you.
Practise with SNGWiz or ICMizer for the ICM spots (because it's really a whole lot different from your usual games).
If you have success, just move up in stakes (as in mix in $15s (game selecting will become very important starting from $15s, for turbos it's already important for $7s) and mix in turbos as well. Money and VPPs will come by themself Smile


Thanks for the info mate! Really useful stuff... The next two months will be used to figure out what will work best. But thinking 9/18/45 man, $3.50 & $7.00, turbo & non-turbo... I can comfortably play 25 games at a time, so the multi-tabling won't be an issue... If I'm not making enough points with these every month, I'll start to throw a few $15 games into the mix.

Target to put it simply, is $600 worth of buy-ins on any day I play, and at least 5 days play per week. If I can do that, I'll make it.

     
  13-Oct-14, 15:29   #13
  0 
BeMyATMplz 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 1854
What's very important is to find the format that makes us most $s while getting us enough VPPs.
I was also always focused on MTSNGs, but I compared sharkscope leaderboards and looked where the most money at the lowstakes is to be gained, and that is by far nonturbo games, while the only non turbo games running at good volume are the STTs. Now I play them for about a month and could bang my head on a wall nonstop that I never thought about it earlier to move to nonturbo STTs.

I think more than aiming for supernova you should be looking to play the best format to make money at. Because I def. wanna earn quite a lot more than the earnings from supernova itself.
If I calc. for about 20K games at $1/game (def. possible, even at $7s already this is possible) plus supernova then I roughly have a 25K year, not having BoP and freerolls included. Supernova, however, is just the minor part of earnings unless you go for a high VPP count (500K+) and/or play higher stakes turbo STTs.

Please also keep in mind that to safely play $3.50/$7 45s without redepositing during a downswing (or to overall play them confortably) you will need about $1K at least. Swings of 100ABIs are very common, even more very well possible.
Playing non turbo games (especially at STTs) I think having 80ABIs in your roll should be enough, so you can climb stakes faster, while your $/game rate will (at least should) be higher.
Maybe jovicakralj sees this thread and replies, he also plays $7 and $15 non turbo 6 max STTs, would be nice to know what swings he has sometimes, but I cant imagine that he ever dropped more than $700 playing $15s, even less playing $7s.

I'm just comparing it with myself, I couldn't imagine grinding 45 mans every day for several hours straight, but also have to say I rather play in sets than continous, I have trouble staying focused for more than 3 hours.
Playing $7 and $15 non turbo STTs I have a set of 25-30 games loaded within 20 minutes, and playing the set (including loading up) takes about 1h45min, while earning about 150VPPs in that time (depending on the ratio of both stakes).
Playing 3 sets per day while having enough free time other than poker is very easy.
Usually I play a set after school, then another one before dinner, then one more after dinner+chilling time. Then later on I have the option to play another one if I want to, but might also go have a drink with a friend, go to bed early, do other stuff and so on, the 4th set I set myself as optional, if I manage 3 sets per day I will reach my goal easily while having enough time off as well.



     
  13-Oct-14, 15:39   #14
  0 
yout85 
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 2016
All good stuff... I'm liking the idea of non-turbo STTs... Monday to Saturday, then a day of MTTs on Sunday... with a couple of days break when I feel like I need it.

I have roughly $1k roll at the moment, so thinking that's enough to mix $3.50, $7.00 & the occasional $15...

I prefer continuous to sets, so I'll be doing timed sessions rather than a number of games...

I'm not going to be giving up my job, which is 40 hours a week (50 including travel etc).. then I have college 6 hours a week (10 including travel etc) ... so not a lot of time left.

     
  13-Oct-14, 16:47   #15
  0 
arsenej1 

Joined: Mar '09
Location: Canada
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 3020
This would be an awesome achievement. Im still trying to get past silver star but dont multitab well my max is like 3 games without getting overwhelmed lol.

     
  13-Oct-14, 17:55   #16
  0 
BeMyATMplz 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 1854
Posted by yout85:
All good stuff... I'm liking the idea of non-turbo STTs... Monday to Saturday, then a day of MTTs on Sunday... with a couple of days break when I feel like I need it.

I have roughly $1k roll at the moment, so thinking that's enough to mix $3.50, $7.00 & the occasional $15...

I prefer continuous to sets, so I'll be doing timed sessions rather than a number of games...

I'm not going to be giving up my job, which is 40 hours a week (50 including travel etc).. then I have college 6 hours a week (10 including travel etc) ... so not a lot of time left.


$1K is a very solid starting roll for that task, especially when being able to play many tables you can mix buy ins and just pick good/soft games.
I myself have all regs marked (especially for $15s thats important ebcause there are some games with 7 regs - not profitable to join that) and never join $15s with more than 5 regs. $3.50s and $7s are always good enough tojoin (as for non turbos at least).
But if you mix 3 stakes you can easily choose the best games.
All I'm doing right now is also just preparation, I don't wanna focus on 9 mans at the start of the year just to find out I'm breakeven and just grind in the rakeback (above 10% ROI atm at 7s though over about 1K games, which I'd be happy if I can keep it).
There are also regs that make up to 20% ROI at the $7s ('winsummathis', 'renarss' and so on, you'll play them alot when you play 7s), however they usually only play 6-9 tables, I'm one who rather has 10%ROI*25 over 20%ROI*6 in a set).

Giving up your job would be a bad decision too, always better to have a solid income, I'm just grinding alongside of school too, doing your dayjob and visiting college is +EV for your whole life, we can never know how long poker will still be Big Smile

I see you grind the mentioned games atm, gl with that Smile

     
  13-Oct-14, 18:35   #17
  0 
yout85 
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 2016
Just bought into a mix of $3.50 turbo & non-turbos... Just to regain my feel for them, as it's been a while since I've grinded SNGs...

11 turbos - 4/11 ITM (36%) - Down $4.38
6 non turbos - 3/6 ITM (50%) - Up $9.79

Unbelievably small sample size, I know... but I'm already thinking to focus mainly on the non turbos for profit, and the turbos to top my points up...

     
  13-Oct-14, 18:43   #18
  0 
Mober 
Joined: Mar '09
Location: Greece
Age: 39 (F)
Posts: 10034
This is going to be a hard task. You will need to squeeze too many things in.
Since you have a job and a good thing you arent thinking of quitting it to try poker Smile,
my opinion is to focus into finishing college first, get your degree and then do your
poker experiment.
Years go by too fast and you will need to do some things to enjoy life too.
You cant do everything in any age. So in your spare time, do now whatever will be hard
or even impossible for you to do later in your life..
We only get older, unless you are Benjamin Button!

     
  13-Oct-14, 19:20   #19
  0 
BeMyATMplz 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 1854
Posted by yout85:
Just bought into a mix of $3.50 turbo & non-turbos... Just to regain my feel for them, as it's been a while since I've grinded SNGs...

11 turbos - 4/11 ITM (36%) - Down $4.38
6 non turbos - 3/6 ITM (50%) - Up $9.79

Unbelievably small sample size, I know... but I'm already thinking to focus mainly on the non turbos for profit, and the turbos to top my points up...


Yeah as for 9 mans non turbos are certainly the way to go profitwise, doesn't take that much to have a very good winrate there up to $7s.
Obviously samplesize matters, but non turbo STTs are really super low variance compared to other formats.
I think in non turbos after 500STTs you can already determine many things (especially EV), in turbos you'll need thousands (not to forget turbos usually have more regs -> lower edge -> higher variance).
At the beginning when I switched to 9 mans I basicly mainly played 9 mans turbos (normal and KO) and a few non turbo STTs, but quickly found non turbos to be a much larger moneymaker.
Plus, like I said, if I can keep myself focused there will be no problem hitting supernova playing solely non turbos.
I'm playing staked but I told my straker that supernova is one of my goals in 2015 (he plays similar games, is a book author, coach etc., so money is not the issue Big Smile ) and he said he will stake me for every buy in as long as I stay dedicated, as long as I'm profitable in it.
My plan is to get to grind $3.50s/$7s/$15s at the start of the year (doing that already) and to get to $30s/$60s (obviously only soft ones (game selection really is key)) later the year.
If you stay dedicated, dont get on cashgame tilt or whatever then I'm pretty sure you will make it based on the kind of sessions you played today Smile

     
  13-Oct-14, 20:24   #20
  0 
yout85 
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 2016
Definitely loving the non-turbo ones Big Smile

Just played a set of 15... 6 ITM and a $20+ profit. I know this sort of rate won't keep up, but I'm at 30% ROI in the non-turbos atm, with a $21.69 profit from just 21 games.

Think my plan will be to play as many non-turbo as I can at the start of each month... If I'm falling behind my monthly targets, then I'll add turbos to the mix..

------------
That last set of 20, I was getting sucked out on left, right and centre... every time I got called by a flush draw - they hit, every time I got someone all in dominated, they hit....

But still only $10 down Big Smile ... and I really can't forsee having an unluckier session than that for a long time.

Feeling confident Thumbs Up

Edited by yout85 (Monday, October 13, 2014 @ 22:14 GMT)


     
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