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  30-May-15, 14:56   #1
Luck or skill? -1 
PORKOLOKO 
Joined: May '11
Location: Brazil
Age: 42 (M)
Posts: 32
Numerous writers of poker, listed several methods of play, numerous strategies, but I see that they forget to point out that you also need to win the RNG and its database, online is more luck than skill, ability helps more I would say that contributes 30 % maximum.

     
  30-May-15, 16:17   #2
  0 
Heskor 
Joined: May '13
Location: Mauritius
Age: 25 (M)
Posts: 2659
Hmm i think you talking some good thing here, nah seriously i think both are hard , both need several skills sets, live you need the ability to read people and stamina to last for hours and you got to do fitness also you have to have a good memory, online you dont have to have the best memory there are software out there to help you, also you can play when you want so not need to be fit a lot, anyway good luck mate have fun!

     
  31-May-15, 15:01   #3
  0 
klash23 
Joined: Mar '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 37 (F)
Posts: 2243
If you are playing micro or low stakes online then luck can be a massive factor in the big field tournaments where you get some players treating a $5 rebuy the same as a 10c game but in the bigger stakes if you have no skill you won't have a bankroll for very long. Smile

     
  31-May-15, 18:03   #4
  0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1622
Posted by PORKOLOKO:
online is more luck than skill, ability helps more I would say that contributes 30 % maximum.

I don't know what that means; 30 skill and 70% luck. Surely "luck" should be the same for everyone on average. Do you suppose that winning players have just been lucky for a long time, beating the average luck?
I suppose that's possible, I can't disprove it. Then again it's not likely. I actively seek out bad players to increase my profit. Players that make mathematically incorrect decisions over and over again. Of course they win every now and then, but they can't keep overpaying for their draw, without losing money, in the long run. Just like when I move up in limits, more and more players with better skills will find my leaks and exploit them.
While it's possible to be consistently much more (or less) lucky than the average, over long periods of time, that should be statistically rare.

     
  31-May-15, 21:01   #5
  0 
luisexy69 

Joined: Jan '12
Location: Portugal
Age: 25 (M)
Posts: 405
Hi mate.

One day i read a phrase in one casino here in portugal, that says all about the subject of this thread, that is - "Ter talento não é sorte. A sorte é que exige talento.", in english language - "Have talent is not luck. The luck just demands talent."
You know every thing about the game but some time you win without luck, other times you don't know a thing about the game and have the luck.
But like we all know luck in the game of poker in the long run just not exist, so keep playing the same for a while and after a few weeks or maybe months you will see and analys if you had luck or not.

     
  1-Jun-15, 04:59   #6
  0 
Willid88 
Joined: Feb '14
Location: Mauritius
Age: 26 (M)
Posts: 103
Posted by klash23:
If you are playing micro or low stakes online then luck can be a massive factor in the big field tournaments where you get some players treating a $5 rebuy the same as a 10c game but in the bigger stakes if you have no skill you won't have a bankroll for very long. Smile


This!!! you really need a min of skill in order to be a winning long term player at big stakes.


     
  1-Jun-15, 09:09   #7
  0 
yout85 
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 1987
Find me one consistently winning player who would agree with your luck/skill ratio...

It's strange how people who lose blame luck.

------------
Posted by Willid88:
Posted by klash23:
If you are playing micro or low stakes online then luck can be a massive factor in the big field tournaments where you get some players treating a $5 rebuy the same as a 10c game but in the bigger stakes if you have no skill you won't have a bankroll for very long. Smile


This!!! you really need a min of skill in order to be a winning long term player at big stakes.



And this is so far from true it's unbelievable. There is SO MUCH skill involved...

     
  1-Jun-15, 13:12   #8
  0 
pochui 

Joined: May '08
Location: Lithuania
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 8386
excuse my degenerated brain if i talk bullsh1t (well actually that's 99% of what i'm doing anyways) but me ponders that big field tournaments really involves a lot of luck. if you play same stakes sng or cash game with same buy-in/stake then you can't blame luck if you're losing, most of the time it just means that you can't beat the rake and/or opponents, but in larger mtt's you have to have a perfect run if you want to have a seat reserved at the final table. and what's more: bad beats come and go, and they do average out- yet in mtt's you can get a bad beat late in the tourney near the bubble or big payout and suckout someone big time near the start of tourney... in other words- statistically you can run with the normal percentages, but financially you can show very little profit if any in larger mtt's.

     
  1-Jun-15, 13:16   #9
  0 
yout85 
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 1987
Almost right pochui...

Basically the point is that you can't guarantee SHORT TERM success in large field MTTs... But long term there's just as much potential profit as in any other format.

The luck/skill debate with MTTs is a tricky one to answer... but here is the definitive, say no more, absolute 100% correct answer...

In large field MTTs you need more luck AND more skill to succeed.

The skill to make the most of situations that arise, and the luck to have things go your way after making a correct play.

     
  1-Jun-15, 13:32   #10
  0 
pochui 

Joined: May '08
Location: Lithuania
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 8386
yeah you're right on the fact that skill/luck debate with mtt's is a tricky one...

let's look at this simple example. you get dealt same hand 5 times- you have a pair of AA's and villain has a pair of KK's.

cash games: you win 4 times out of 5 against villain (statistically), which means that you probably are deep in profit.

larger mtt's: you win same 4 hands out of 5, BUT that 5th you lost was on the bubble. you are kicked out and you have $0 profit for your say 5 hours of work. and what is most important here is that you are not running bad you won the amount of hand you should win with those starting hands (assuming you both went all in pre-flop).

so basically larger mtt's add one more element to usual stats- you have to win the hands you should statistically win at the right time... that's where i see the bigger luck element coming in.

     
  1-Jun-15, 13:57   #11
  0 
yout85 
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 1987
You show pretty good understanding for someone who loses all the while Tongue


The bit you mention about winning at the right time, is correct... but is also the reason why MTT results have to be looked at longterm.

It's the reason why MTTs are more frustrating to play for a living... If you're a cash game player, what's the most AA into KK is going to cost you? Two buy-ins? Maybe three? In MTT, that one hand can be the difference between a profitable or losing YEAR, nevermind session.

The key to success.... don't let the beats affect your play... and volume, volume, volume.

     
  1-Jun-15, 14:34   #12
  0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1622
I don't think there really is any difference in terms of luck required between cash and MTT. It's just that variance is much higher in MTT, so it takes much more volume to converge.

This is the main reason for me to play cash. It allows me to find leaks in my game much quicker. In MTTs you could be playing losing strategy for months, and not even be aware of it due to short term luck... Or maybe worse; adjust your play away from proper strategy, due to bad luck.

     
  1-Jun-15, 15:42   #13
  0 
pinotte 
Joined: Jun '13
Location: Canada
Age: 72 (M)
Posts: 3445
I am not a cash came player and wont comment on that. I am a recreational player mostly playing micro SNG or MTT and freeroll. When i started to play before black friday IMO poker needed a lot more skill than now. There are so many peoples that are playing poker like a luck game that IMO the luck % is a lot moore than it was before. Sure if you would play the same players all the time on long term skill would be a lot moore profitable. Its not the case and in MTT you have so many luck player than one willl vvery often put you out with nothink. Smile

     
  1-Jun-15, 19:49   #14
  0 
pochui 

Joined: May '08
Location: Lithuania
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 8386
Posted by yout85:
You show pretty good understanding for someone who loses all the while Tongue

i write on the forum when i'm sober enough see the keyboard... sadly enough this is not the case for poker

     
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