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  17-Jun-15, 22:23   #1
help me out bankroll sharks 0 
skinhead 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 38 (M)
Posts: 14
Does anyone know the odds of a set on the flop turning into a full house or four of a kind with two cards to come? I quite often have this situation and know they have a flush or straight but need to know if its worth it. thanx mobsters x

Dollar

     
  17-Jun-15, 22:44   #2
  0 
pinotte 
Joined: Jun '13
Location: Canada
Age: 72 (M)
Posts: 3448
A set to make quad is 1 out so around 4% on the turn and 2% on the river.
To make a full equal 3 outs so around 12% on the turn and 6% on the river.
these oods are not tking in considaration that in a full ring one or more cards are maybe in the hand of other players. Smile Smile

     
  17-Jun-15, 23:57   #3
  0 
Skpmorita 
Joined: Feb '14
Location: Tunisia
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 2075
full house draw is actually better than a two way straight draw
you always gain more outs on the turn

it is almost 33.5% to make a fullhouse or better with 2 cards to come ( turn + river )



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Posted by pinotte:
A set to make quad is 1 out so around 4% on the turn and 2% on the river.
To make a full equal 3 outs so around 12% on the turn and 6% on the river.
these oods are not tking in considaration that in a full ring one or more cards are maybe in the hand of other players. Smile Smile


this is wrong
to make fullhouse you actually need 6 outs on the turn and if you miss become 9 outs on the river

Edited by Skpmorita (Thursday, June 18, 2015 @ 01:10 GMT)


     
  18-Jun-15, 03:02   #4
  0 
pinotte 
Joined: Jun '13
Location: Canada
Age: 72 (M)
Posts: 3448
I am very sorry i calculated the outs lot to fast you are right for a full or better after the flop you have 7 outs using the simple 4 formula it is giving you 28% to make it to the showw down if you miss on the turn then you have 3 more outs giving 10 outs with the fast formula X 2 his 20%. And again its good if no other players have some of the cards needed. Sorry Again. Smile

     
  18-Jun-15, 05:50   #5
  0 
IceQueenAce 
Joined: Feb '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 40 (F)
Posts: 2183
Posted by pinotte:
these oods are not tking in considaration that in a full ring one or more cards are maybe in the hand of other players. Smile Smile


I think this is wrong.

The odds are the same whether they are in someone's hand or if they are in the deck.

     
  18-Jun-15, 06:32   #6
  0 
damosk 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 52 (M)
Posts: 4716
This is an interesting question and responses. Of course the odds remain the same technically, however, one cannot dispute that if the cards you need to achieve a full house are already in someone's hand, then your odds are reduced, maybe even to zero if they are all out! However, you are not to know this, unless someone has accidentally (or otherwise) revealed their hand during the game, and therefore in my humble opinion, this becomes a false odds situation, as you are gambling on the odds of the card coming from the pack when the cards are not in the pack.

Maybe I should do some reading on this situation to clarify it in my own mind!

     
  18-Jun-15, 11:21   #7
  0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1626
Posted by IceQueenAce:
Posted by pinotte:
these oods are not tking in considaration that in a full ring one or more cards are maybe in the hand of other players. Smile Smile


I think this is wrong.

The odds are the same whether they are in someone's hand or if they are in the deck.

Indeed, you are calculating a probability based on what you know, and you don't know if the cards are in the deck or dealt already to other players.

If you'd reason that way, you could always say it's 0% or 100% that the river will complete your flush draw, based on the card that is on top of the dealers deck, when he's about to deal the river card...
The point is to calculate, out of all the cards you haven't seen, what percentage will improve your hand.

     
  18-Jun-15, 14:17   #8
  0 
av1966 
Joined: Mar '09
Location: Portugal
Age: 50 (M)
Posts: 1500
Hello my friends and fellow mobsters

This is a great question from you skinhead and even greater answers from the forum Thumbs Up Thumbs Up

This kind of posts make you improve your game and also shows the level of knowledge needed to be a good poker player Thumbs Up Thumbs Up
Also proves that poker is a skill game not a betting one Confused Confused
Learn something today so a great day

BE HAPPY AND STAY COOL

     
  18-Jun-15, 14:40   #9
  0 
StheP 

Joined: Oct '14
Location: Serbia
Age: 26 (M)
Posts: 3026
well you can use system 2 or 4... its easy count your outs and if its on flop multiply by 4 to get your percent on river, if your cards are on turn count your outs and multiply it by 2... Thats roughly percentage of yours hitting your outs... so you need fh on river or poker, so thats 1 out for quads + remaining 2 cards on flop that needs to pair, thats 6 more cards... So you have to hit 7 outs... 7 multiply by 4 and you have roughly 28% of hitting it (if your oponent doesnt have some cards from flop, if he have percentage are smaller).

     
  18-Jun-15, 15:29   #10
  0 
pinotte 
Joined: Jun '13
Location: Canada
Age: 72 (M)
Posts: 3448
Lets take another example the flush you have diamond flush draw on the flop so you have 9 outs. However in a full ring how many times no diamond would be in the hand of another player or the 3 dead cards. For sure you will never know if you dont see but i am just saying that you have to be conservative in calculating the oods in this situation. IMO oods are cards that can hit the board so if they are in the hand of another player you wont see them onj the board. Question Question

     
  18-Jun-15, 15:38   #11
  0 
Heskor 
Joined: May '13
Location: Mauritius
Age: 25 (M)
Posts: 2659
Hmm there are good software out there that can tell you odds of something happening and all , try to google it it is always shown in google at the first page, anyway good luck , looks like you learning poker a bit , keep it up this will helps you and in the end you might end up becoming a god in poker or live making money off poker, cheers peace out mate, have fun again at the tables , im out now coming back later, have to sleep!

     
  18-Jun-15, 15:44   #12
  0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1626
Posted by pinotte:
Lets take another example the flush you have diamond flush draw on the flop so you have 9 outs. However in a full ring how many times no diamond would be in the hand of another player or the 3 dead cards. For sure you will never know if you dont see but i am just saying that you have to be conservative in calculating the oods in this situation. IMO oods are cards that can hit the board so if they are in the hand of another player you wont see them onj the board. Question Question

That has no effect whatsoever on what size bet you can call profitably. All you know is that there are 9 outs.
They could be in the hands of other players, of the could be on the bottom of the deck.

All you can say is that on average you'll hit your flush on the river 18% of the time, that includes situations where none of the cards you require remain in the deck, as well as situations there's one at the top of the deck.

     
  18-Jun-15, 19:08   #13
  0 
Pygmalion69 

Joined: Jun '12
Location: Argentina
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 168
If you arrive very often these situations is because you got lucky or play poker like ass
Odds both turn and river are few and more than likely you should follow your intuition, if it is the same as playing poker certainly end up dry as an autumn leaf table Confused

     
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