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Would you roll the dice?
 

  17-Sep-15, 11:10   #1
Would you roll the dice? 0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1631
There is a TV show that challenges a random person on the street to do some degrading task (like getting hosed down with a foam fire extinguisher). If he gets 3 other people to do the same degrading task within 15 minutes he wins 250 EUR (the others get nothing).

When the challenge is complete, the contestant gets 250 EUR, or the chance to roll the dice for either 1, 50 , 100, 250, 500 or 1000 EUR (the six sides of the dice).

It surprises me that no one ever rolls the dice, and if I ask the opinion of people I know, nobody would roll the dice either...

Surely every poker player would, wouldn't you?

     
  17-Sep-15, 11:26   #2
  0 
Buva13 

Joined: Jul '15
Location: Croatia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 735
Hell yea i roll the dice all my life and look how i turned - now i have six altewr egos Tongue

     
  17-Sep-15, 12:05   #3
  0 
wdrcasino 
Joined: Jan '08
Location: Denmark
Age: 42 (M)
Posts: 65
4 results in winning the same or less and only 2 to top it.. those odds i don't like.
I would take the 250 € Smile

     
  17-Sep-15, 12:06   #4
  0 
shokaku 

Joined: May '08
Location: Germany
Age: 51 (M)
Posts: 6233
I can understand it. If they have to do something degrading, people usually want a payoff. So they take the secure price of 250 EUR. And yes, expectation for rolling the dice is higher, around 316 instead of the 250 EUR. But it is not by that much.

     
  17-Sep-15, 13:41   #5
  0 
SBEP 

Joined: Nov '14
Location: Macedonia, The former Yugoslav Republic of
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 977
It all depends on how many go`s i have at rolling the dice, with 33% a roll to hit 5 or 6 and make more then 250, i would only do it if i had 2 or 3 times to roll the dice

------------
Sorry 16.5% a roll to hot 5 or 6 Big Smile

Edited by SBEP (Thursday, September 17, 2015 @ 14:52 GMT)


     
  17-Sep-15, 15:48   #6
  0 
RoninHarper 

Joined: Nov '12
Location: Canada
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 4440
G'day mates
I would roll the dice.
I do not care if I get less I want te chance to know what I would roll Smile
Wishing you all the best
be cool

Ronin Cool

     
  17-Sep-15, 16:05   #7
  0 
pochui 

Joined: May '08
Location: Lithuania
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 8643
yeah i would roll the dice, without any second though... i mean how can one resist the chance downgrade your bankroll from 250 to 1? that is a real ecstasy if you ask me, and on top of this downgrade you get the chance to do something degrading... wow... degrading+ downgrading... what can be better...

     
  17-Sep-15, 18:31   #8
  0 
StheP 

Joined: Oct '14
Location: Serbia
Age: 26 (M)
Posts: 3118
well you got good result with acepting the prize, because only 2 side of dice is bigger than 250e... but I would gamble and roll the dice either way... its free money, and hey you might get 1000e or even 500e... I would be satisfied also with 50e, but I doubt it would end up on 1... but if it does I would say phuck it, at least I had fun Tongue

     
  17-Sep-15, 21:56   #9
  0 
Mober 
Joined: Mar '09
Location: Greece
Age: 39 (F)
Posts: 10039
I believe you were expecting different results from poker players Smile
But besides the fact i wouldnt take place in such a game, i would have stick with the money.
250 euro is not a bad amount, and you actually chasing a 5 or a 6 in order to multiply your winnings.
Not a good bet Smile

     
  17-Sep-15, 22:19   #10
  0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1631
Posted by Mober:
I believe you were expecting different results from poker players Smile

Well, yes, frankly... I even posed the question in a suggestive way, with a bias towards rolling the dice...

The expected value from rolling the dice is (1 + 50 + 100 + 250 + 500 + 1000)/6 = 316.83
That is 26.7% more... If i'd get those odds at a casino, I'd make a fortune in no time...

Not rolling the dice is just throwing away value. Maybe if you can't afford it, you should not roll, but it's money you didn't have 15 minutes ago, so maybe you can't really afford to give up value like that.

I would think poker players are constantly looking for the best EV, with their bets, this is no different.

     
  18-Sep-15, 03:47   #11
  0 
SBEP 

Joined: Nov '14
Location: Macedonia, The former Yugoslav Republic of
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 977
I think the EV is where u make the mistake, my math is good but not great Big Smile and i think u have to calculate how many % do u have of hitting the desired 5 and 6, and not EV, coz u dont calculate a pot, and how bigger can it get, but u are calculating 6 different pot`s with fixed value, there for u have to calculate what are the odds of hitting the pot 5 and 6, out of 6 possible pots with 1 roll of the dice, which, if im not mistaking is 16.5% a "pot" or a number from 1 to 6, what im trying to say is, it doesn't matter if u roll the dice 1 time or a million when u have 6 possible outcomes it all comes down to 16.5% a number, im not 100% on this, but i feel it in my gut to be true Big Smile

     
  18-Sep-15, 07:41   #12
  0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1631
Posted by SBEP:
I think the EV is where u make the mistake, my math is good but not great Big Smile and i think u have to calculate how many % do u have of hitting the desired 5 and 6, and not EV, coz u dont calculate a pot, and how bigger can it get, but u are calculating 6 different pot`s with fixed value, there for u have to calculate what are the odds of hitting the pot 5 and 6, out of 6 possible pots with 1 roll of the dice, which, if im not mistaking is 16.5% a "pot" or a number from 1 to 6, what im trying to say is, it doesn't matter if u roll the dice 1 time or a million when u have 6 possible outcomes it all comes down to 16.5% a number, im not 100% on this, but i feel it in my gut to be true Big Smile

It's the same thing:

16.667% * 1€ + 16.667% * 50€ + 16.667% * 100€ + 16.667% * 250€ + 16.667% * 500€ + 16.667% * 1000€ = 316.83€

the lower prizes have value too, you should not just exclude them from your calculation.

But maybe you've explained why so few people roll the dice; they probably think it's not a good deal (-EV). Maybe it's a little bit like: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem where people invariably do the wrong thing...?

     
  18-Sep-15, 11:57   #13
  0 
klash23 
Joined: Mar '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 38 (F)
Posts: 2243
I think marquis explained it well and I would be rolling the dice.I suppose anyone willing to degrade themselves for €250 would need/want the money so wouldn't risk it but the only real dice roll to avoid would be the €1. Smile

     
  18-Sep-15, 16:47   #14
  0 
TheMachineQC 

Joined: Apr '10
Location: Canada
Age: 27 (M)
Posts: 2115
I would roll the dice and then refuse to do it if it hits 1 or 50$. Problem solved Big Smile

"16.667% * 1€ + 16.667% * 50€ + 16.667% * 100€ + 16.667% * 250€ + 16.667% * 500€ + 16.667% * 1000€ = 316.83€"

and its ev+, so why not lol

Good luck on the tables mobsters

     
  18-Sep-15, 17:24   #15
  0 
Heskor 
Joined: May '13
Location: Mauritius
Age: 25 (M)
Posts: 2659
I would not as most people would think of the same line as me , like i already done some crazy s**t and if i lose the roll of dice i might end up getting 1 dollars for doing this degrading stuffs and then be laugh at lol, the same line im sure of it , anyway i would not , so good luk guys if it ever happens to me , i might just do it because i already know it lol ! Anyway im out for now going to sleep and to place some more bets cheers good luck!

     
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