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  1-Oct-17, 08:35   #1
Monty Hall passes. 0 
IceQueenAce 
Joined: Feb '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 41 (F)
Posts: 2242
Monty Hall, of probability fame, has passed on...

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?


     
  1-Oct-17, 09:06   #2
  0 
pochui 

Joined: May '08
Location: Lithuania
Age: 33 (M)
Posts: 9751
well realistically nothing changes apart from the fact that now your initial choice has 50% chance to be correct, compared to initial 33%. fact remains that you still have no idea which one of the doors are hiding a car and which the goat. so you can change your choice as many times as you like but still you have o clue which one is the right door.

     
  1-Oct-17, 09:17   #3
  0 
shokaku 

Joined: May '08
Location: Germany
Age: 52 (M)
Posts: 6454
From a math point, it would be correct to switch. The original choice had a 1 in 3 chance, the new one a 1 in 2. But changing, and then realsing it was the wrong choice, will be to much to stomach for most people.

     
  1-Oct-17, 09:22   #4
  0 
Tony_MON7ANA 

Joined: Mar '14
Location: Japan
Age: 43 (M)
Posts: 6176
“Let’s Make a Deal” is one of the most successful game shows in television history. The iconic show has been televised not only in the US but in many countries throughout the world.
Rest in Peace, Monty Hall.

     
  1-Oct-17, 13:57   #5
  0 
StheP 

Joined: Oct '14
Location: Serbia
Age: 27 (M)
Posts: 3900
Always choose other door you have 66% to be right Blink here is link to it... I read it like 5 years ago or so....
https://www.theproblemsite.com/games/treasure-hunt/door-hint

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I can make it simple... for example when you are choosing first door, you are not choosing door that has behind car, you are choosing door that hasnt, if you are switching, and right there in begining you have 66,66% chance to be right if you always switch your choise Blink

Edited by StheP (Sunday, October 01, 2017 @ 14:14 GMT)


     
  1-Oct-17, 16:52   #6
  0 
Gerimantas 
Joined: Jan '17
Location: Lithuania
Age: 59 (M)
Posts: 865
I think it is just luck to pick one door from three, then after the door 3 is opened and now the choice is to pick one door from two. Yes smaller nimber of doors to pick but still only guess nothing more, you don't know which one is good. So you can have two goats easy Smile

     
  1-Oct-17, 18:37   #7
  0 
StheP 

Joined: Oct '14
Location: Serbia
Age: 27 (M)
Posts: 3900
Posted by Gerimantas:
I think it is just luck to pick one door from three, then after the door 3 is opened and now the choice is to pick one door from two. Yes smaller nimber of doors to pick but still only guess nothing more, you don't know which one is good. So you can have two goats easy Smile

like I said and you have it on link... you will win 67% of time if you chose other door while you will win only 33% of the time if you chose to stay with the door you picked... its not 50:50 Blink

     
  1-Oct-17, 18:39   #8
  0 
Mober 
Joined: Mar '09
Location: Greece
Age: 40 (F)
Posts: 11624
I would have stayed with my first pick. And that due to my personal history,
in situations like this. Every time i had second guessed and changed my pick,
i lost about 99% of the times. So after a point i stuck to my first choice no matter what .

     
  1-Oct-17, 18:50   #9
  0 
Tony_MON7ANA 

Joined: Mar '14
Location: Japan
Age: 43 (M)
Posts: 6176
There are three doors. Behind one is a prize. Behind the others are no prize. You pick one at random. The person who hid the prize opens a door which he knows does not have the prize. Now you have a choice: stick with your original choice, or switch to the unopened door. What should you do to have the best chance of getting the prize?



Tricky, huh?

     
  1-Oct-17, 20:09   #10
  0 
StheP 

Joined: Oct '14
Location: Serbia
Age: 27 (M)
Posts: 3900
like I said above Blink

     
  2-Oct-17, 09:34   #11
  0 
Tony_MON7ANA 

Joined: Mar '14
Location: Japan
Age: 43 (M)
Posts: 6176
You explained the concept well verbally.
Often times audio and visual aids in presentations can increase audience understanding. I wish I could find more elaborated version of YouTube video explaining the underlying concept.

Edited by Tony_MON7ANA (Monday, October 02, 2017 @ 10:01 GMT)


     
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