It's a bit controversial but i decided to open my betting thread in a poker forum maybe most of you think that betting in long time would be waste of money and it is better to avoid it and go to poker tables... maybe you are right because some sport events really comes crazy and unpredictable in the end but good tipster should consider all this and in the long term he could easily come in profit like in poker, it's all about how you deal with your bankroll management and if you find the games which you can predict with best success...
Like i mention before in some thread (or poll) of this forum, i'm using 50 % of my bankroll for poker and the other half - for betting. It's not my full-time job or some kind of that but i also do not like to lose my money to anyone i'm dealing with my money very carefully and playing where i see best chances of outcome... i have almost 4 years of betting experience (become succesful only in 2009).
So, here i will provide daily (almost) my betting soccer tips where i can see best chances of outcome. i will try to explain them as i can (bad english - its not my nature language). GL
will post my first betting tip from next post i hope that i wont somehow violate any of forum rules..
------------ Soccer. Italy Serie A. Bari - Udinese
Pick: Bari DNB (draw no bet) @1.52 (bookie: bet365)
Strong home team against poor away team.
Bari at home has record 5 W, 2 D, 1 L and the last win was against Juventus 3-1. The only loss was against Cagliari in the beginning of the season.
Udinese is very poor on away games with record 2 D and 6 L. Currently they are going to Bari without their leader di Natalea (topscorer) and some other guys are questionable.
To keep in mind that Bari at home is one of the best defensive teams in league and that Udinese is without their topscorer, i see no other result than bari not to lose. I'll take Bari DNB just because i want to see how both teams will play after 3 weeks without official games. GL
The game will start in less than 1 hour so hurry up next time i post my tips early...
Edited by lushforayl (06 January 2010 @ 13:18 GMT)
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 1886
I don't see why it should be controversial. We have a betting sub-forum at BRM for these threads so why not post betting strategy and tips. Like poker there is money to be earned from betting if you have the skills. Unlike casino games sports betting requires a knowledge, a good instinct and a certain amount of dedication. There is always a bit of luck involved and some unfortunate exceptional cases but thats why bankroll management is so important as with poker.
I won't be taking on board any of your tips though because I think you should only bet on games you know about. No matter how good you think the expert is who gives you the tip, you can only really trust your own knowledge when it comes to sport betting. Of course other peoples input can be helpful and I commend you on your detailed reasons.
As it happens I know very little about football but I have often thought about betting on sports I know about. I wouldn't like to risk my own money though as I'm not so confident in my sports knowledge.
Joined: Oct '09
Location: Lithuania
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good job lushforayl u are from Lithuania the same for me just want say LABAS bet and win more easy moneys but remember that one day u loose all and be like "BOMZAS" just remember that good luck sigi
Joined: Nov '09
Location: Canada
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I think yould got a good thread idea here we could all use opinon from others... to make a good an hopefully payable bet looking forward to see what will be posted here
to awood88: i just said that it is controversial because most members of this forum comes here because of poker... and i dont know if here could be lot of followers of this betting thread. i totally agree with your view about betting - like in poker you need to have skills (find sports there you can keep positive ROI in long term) and good bankroll management (to minimize your downswings which happens even to the best players). Your view to betting tips on internet is conservative and it is very good thing that you dont follow them blindly it is very difficult to find a good tipster who can keep positive balance in long term (especially then he publish them for free)... and all what is left for us is to think with own head
to dozn01: it's my fault because i publish my pick a bit to late (less then 1 hour before the start)... it's because i decided to open this thread instantly... i promise that next time i publish pick at least 2 hours before kickstart
to mazas: LABAS na lazybose jau ne pirma savaite patirties igyjau pakankamai kad galeciau isvengti bankroto ar kazko panasaus... sekmes prie pokerio stalu kaip supratau i lazybas jau nelendi ir, beje, easy money gali gauti nebent paveldejant is turtingu seneliu.. bet ne lazybose ar pokeryje
to all: yeah, good start... bari won 2-0 but it is just the beginning and it is early to consider if i am good to keep positive balance... i can only hope that most of my bets would be winning ones and to avoid 'bad beats' i'll try to keep this good run and be helpfull for my fellows from BRM forum
i decided that to track my betting performances (to see if it is positive or negative balance) i need to use units system. i always use flat staking so it will be easy: for every tip from now on i am staking 1 unit. for example: bari won and i won +0.52 units (1 unit*1.52-1) so my currently balance is here:
nice one, lushforayl..... : -) ... me, I'm no expert in soccer, i would never beat the bookie in this category..., but i like little funbets on soccer-events.... : -) ... I guess I will sometimes bet on your tips, also to 'feaver with'....... : -)
finally it's a weekend then we have lots of soccer games to choose from but now there is a lot of postponed games because of the bad weather conditions... and i have to keep it in mind then searching valuable games. So today we are going to make a bet from a spanich La Liga:
Resurgent Villareal against poor away team Almeria
After really bad season start, Villareal finally is back in fight for top6 in spanich league. Now they are in 9th place and are concentrated only to go up in the table. home record is 5 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss but all those draws and a loss (against Real Madrid) were at the begining of the season. Now they are coming after 5 wins at home there they have scored at least 2 goals per game. For this game no important missings is reported. On the other side we have poor travelers Almeria with away record 1 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses. In this game, Almeria will be without their important striker Kalu (now participating in Copa Africa) and important defender Chico (suspended). In last game they have lucky win at home against worst team Xerez 1-0. I'm suggesting you to take Villareal but the odds are not so good for 1x2 market. personally i'm taking villareal (-1 AH) with a bit better odds 1.75. GL
Joined: Feb '09
Location: Belgium
Age: 34 (M)
Posts: 686
Thats very nicel lushforayl. You seems to really master the betting ! keep it up. IMO bet have still a risk since matchs can be rigged and that's bad. But well, thinking about it, a good bankroll managment might be winning. Hard to say, but if you say you are a winning player its just that there mus be a way !
yeah they lost only time i listen and backed to what you said £20 down thanks alot
if they won i was gonna give you some money through paypal but now im not i thought you knew what you was talking about football you know crap good bye...............
i never said that i will be winning 100 % of my bets... it's impossible... we could try to reach positive ROI only in the long term and not after 2 games and i wont be sorry for this tip... i will take same pick in 10 games with same conditions... and after those 10 games i would be with positive balanse... dozn01 you are acting like a child... i cant believe that your age is 30 years (???)... dont forget that i also lose money with this bet but GL next time...
so my balance: 1 W, 1 L (-0.48 unit) ROI: -24%
for those who wants to follow me blindly: wait at least 10 picks and then decide if you really want to do that...
Posted by dozn01: yeah they lost only time i listen and backed to what you said �20 down thanks alot if they won i was gonna give you some money through paypal but now im not i thought you knew what you was talking about football you know crap good bye...............
Damn no way!! Shame that lushforayls magic 8 ball made a wrong prediction this time lol cmon now, the guy is playing the odds & factoring in conditions etc etc but afterall its still an educated guess as you know anything can happen in football.
Posted by lushforayl: i never said that i will be winning 100 % of my bets... it's impossible... we could try to reach positive ROI only in the long term and not after 2 games and i wont be sorry for this tip... i will take same pick in 10 games with same conditions... and after those 10 games i would be with positive balanse... dozn01 you are acting like a child... i cant believe that your age is 30 years (???)... dont forget that i also lose money with this bet but GL next time...
so my balance: 1 W, 1 L (-0.48 unit) ROI: -24%
for those who wants to follow me blindly: wait at least 10 picks and then decide if you really want to do that...
my fault in putting that much money on............. but hey crap happens
balance litening to you -20 pounds to your 1 pound
Joined: Dec '09
Location: Romania
Age: 33 (M)
Posts: 587
African cup ? any bets ? i bet on Cameron vs Gabon at 0-1 in 76' ... on gabon they were sitting down more than playing ... not much action and gabon won ... 1.65 odds 6 min overtime ... imagine how much they were .... i don't know the word and can't find it anywhere ... when they avoid playing by tending to be injured ... ?
maybe most of you think that 
like in 
and i have to keep it in mind then searching valuable games. So today we are going to make a bet from a spanich La Liga:
i put 20 pounds on them 
go else where with your footy tips there no good 
lol cmon now, the guy is playing the odds & factoring in conditions etc etc but afterall its still an educated guess as you know anything can happen in football.
