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There is an element of luck in poker, Donkeys live and die by it. Skill reduces the dependency on luck and will protect your bankroll from variance, but there will always be bad beat stories because someone(donkey)relies on lady luck and refuses to fold that rag hand preflp who in turn draws out to the winning hand by the river. You will see the luck(donk) factor in full swing in freerolls and microstacks ring games.
Joined: Feb '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 33 (M)
Posts: 217
yes u will en ho gave me a thumb down? pls explain why to win u still need a bit of luck 25% 75% skill but not 100% skill couz the racds drops automaticly so u cant use skill to change your card i agreee that some hands u can win with 100% skill for example bluff some one away thats a 100% skill but not flop draw there u need luck especialy usualy on river everyone is hoping on luck or im wrong?
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 1886
Posted by Andriukassss: yes u will en ho gave me a thumb down? pls explain why to win u still need a bit of luck 25% 75% skill but not 100% skill couz the racds drops automaticly so u cant use skill to change your card i agreee that some hands u can win with 100% skill for example bluff some one away thats a 100% skill but not flop draw there u need luck especialy usualy on river everyone is hoping on luck or im wrong?
Yes you're wrong. I already explained this. Drawing hands involve a lot of skill cos you need to work out the odds to call and over time the outcome balances out in your favor. It's called variance.
Wasn't me who gave you the tho. That was harsh just as it was harsh whoever doomdy.
Maybe is the first time I disagree with you; am I getting too old ?? I believe skilled players are strong and it's really hard to beat them but a percentage of luck is required to win something important
Joined: Dec '08
Location: Netherlands
Age: 64 (M)
Posts: 735
Posted by doomdy: Now run these hands 10 million times Then there is 0% luck involved
LMAO, and if I don't live long enough to play 10 million hands? Suppose I only live long enough to play 5 million hands? Suppose that I already won ALL the pot with luck that I was supposed to win in 10 million hands? And that all the losing hands would still be to come in those other 5 million hands. Suppose I can't play those hands anymore because I am DEAD! I WOULD DIE RICH!
Joined: Apr '08
Location: Argentina
Age: 45 (M)
Posts: 748
Posted by MANUEDO:
Posted by doomdy: Skill only ----> 0% luck.
Maybe is the first time I disagree with you; am I getting too old ?? I believe skilled players are strong and it's really hard to beat them but a percentage of luck is required to win something important
Luck is only a factor in the short run I guess. Like doomdy said later, run those hands a big numbre of times and you'll spot the winners
Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 40 (M)
Posts: 6483
it's been mentioned on every poker forum a million times before, but I'll repeat what to my knowledge is the general consensus.. And that is in the short term (especially very short term) there is an incredible amount of luck involved. This is your swings, massive good luck, massive bad luck. Missing you 80% favourite hands 10 times in a row, bad luck. Hitting you 20% favourite hands 10 times in a row, very good luck.
But over a long enough sample data, the odds play out, the same way a casino makes money, despite some patrons having very lucky days. So once you've played poker everyday for 5 years, or an equivalant amount of hands, whether you're a winning player or a losing player will be entirely determined by skill.
Which is why everyone preaches so much about bankroll management, because you need to be able to last out your loooong stretches of bad luck without going bust.
Now, for the central question, what % of luck plays a role? I think doomdy is essentially correct in saying 0% luck 100% skill : in the context of being a winning or losing long term player, I agree completely.
Now if the context is an individual MTT or SNG or Ring game session, then there is also a luck factor.. In a 5000 field MTT you might factor luck anywhere from 10%-60% depending on how good your game is and whether you're talking about placing 1st (i think a high amount of luck is essential to beat a field of 2000 and come first, because even if you get your chips in as 5:1 fav, the 6th time you do this you may lose to a bad beat and be out of MTT)
In the context of a Ring session with a bankroll to support reloads, I think the luck factor should be a lot lower than an MTT, as there's no 'pressure' with blinds going up to open your ranges and shove with cards you'd otherwise be folding, or limping with. And even a single table SNG requires a bit of luck. Proof of this is if you took a group of 6 people all of varying and measured skill factors, if you got them to play 100 6 seater SNGs the most skill player will NOT win all 100 games, why not if it is 100% skill ? Because luck and cards will play a part in each individual game. But if you looked at who was ahead after 100 games, most likely it will be most skilled player. After 10,000 games, then almost defintely the most skilled player.
So yes, in a single game or session, there is luck, ultimately, it is ALL skill.
Joined: Nov '09
Location: Australia
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 715
well its depends if u dident shove against taht guy you could of out played him with your QQ or even bluff him i lost today with KK against AQ flop AQQ shoved preflop
Joined: Feb '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 33 (M)
Posts: 217
waaa ok pro what u say i see that u are super pro player u know everything u giving thumbs down idiot i only see so far that moost of ppl think same as i do that u still need 25% luck but ok u are so pro u know better wanna play heads up 1vs1 at titan poker 1/2NL? max stack u so pro im sure u will win... lets play? people ho think that u still need 25% luck pls can i get a thumb up?
Edited by Andriukassss (15 March 2010 @ 07:27 GMT)
Joined: Nov '09
Location: Canada
Age: 55 (M)
Posts: 2387
For cash games 15% and SNG + MTT 35%. The rising blinds in tourneys force you to make decisions you probably wouldn't make in cash games, so luck and timing there is more important. In cash game skill, patience and reading the other players is far and away more important than luck. I think donks are your friends, when they kick you in the head and you see stars remember: most of their donk moves do not work and will pay you off. But it hurts when they beat you! GL
Joined: May '09
Location: India
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 4873
i think poker is a game of skill but some luck does count. if you play for short term surely luck is more important but for long term luck factor decreases and it depends on your skill if you are a winning player or not.
Joined: Oct '09
Location: Lithuania
Age: 43 (M)
Posts: 2805
i think 25 % and more because its just the game there u not win only for good hand holder there u win by lucky rivers or turns so luck is the part off poker game and all off us know it
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 1886
Posted by Andriukassss: waaa ok pro what u say i see that u are super pro player u know everything u giving thumbs down idiot i only see so far that moost of ppl think same as i do that u still need 25% luck but ok u are so pro u know better wanna play heads up 1vs1 at titan poker 1/2NL? max stack u so pro im sure u will win... lets play? people ho think that u still need 25% luck pls can i get a thumb up?
Andriukassss, who are you talking to? If this is directed at me I assure you I am no pro. This is my opinion. I was merely answering your question about how you can control drawing hands.
Please note: I DID NOT give you a thumbs down. I have never given you one to my knowledge as your opinion is as valid as mine. I agree with doomdy and I don't understand why either of you got thumbs down.
Joined: May '09
Location: Italy
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 272
yesterday night i had the proof that there everything subject of luck .
I've receive for all the night 2 6 , 2-9 , 2-7 ... for all the night ! 've gone with q and 10 !i got tris of 10 at flop , i made all-in, he call and he had 10 and k !
yesterday i loose 2,50 € , marcosocram (in the forum) won 45€ , other won 18,15 and 13 euros !every other looooooooooooooose !
No way to take a good beat against marcosocram yesterday !
Joined: Apr '09
Location: Portugal
Age: 44 (M)
Posts: 4827
No doubt luck as something to do with any card game, because diferent cards have different values, and who as better cards wins, its as simple as that! But remember that in Hold'em you play with two in the hand plus three from the five that goes to table, and while the game is developing, bluff also counts a lot, thats why knowing when and how much to bet in each part of the game is so important. One thing is for sure: even if you play agressive and wisely, your oponent can always be a calling station and end up with a better hand: when that happens, its his luck working for him... but that doesnt happen all the time!
Joined: May '08
Location: Netherlands
Age: 53 (M)
Posts: 6197
@ Jessthehuman: great post +1
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If u see poker short run, yeh there is a luck involved.
If u see poker as a lifetime investment, only skill.
Losing players will allways loose money no matter wot site they play on. Winning players will allways win money (giving stakes offcourse) no matter wot site they play on.
tho. That was harsh just as it was harsh whoever 
