Joined: Apr '09
Location: Argentina
Age: 46 (M)
Posts: 98
I'm a relative novice with a small question. I have not encountered any info on this potential "human" factor in odds calculation:
fumbling with holdem play, it occurred to me that there may be fewer low cards in play than pure statistics would suggest, due to their being folded pre-flop more often than quality cards. Hence when evaluating the likelihood of a potential low straight, pair or triple showing after the flop being completed by opponents may be less that stats suggest, due to being discarded more often than high cards. Is this a reasonable assumption? Thanks..
Joined: Mar '10
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 39 (M)
Posts: 169
This may be considered amatuer play too, but sometimes when holding a low to mid pocket pair i try to evaluate the odds of hitting my set by calculating how many people have folded their hand. Based on the same theory that a folded hand is usually suggesting low to mid cards. This is not the way i always play but i have noticed that i am more likely to hit a set if 2 or more players are in the hand and they are holding over cards...
Either way, i would say your suggestive theory holds some weight but should not be considered a reasonable tactic to winning hands, as with mine.
Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 40 (M)
Posts: 6483
Posted by cyberbabel: I'm a relative novice with a small question. I have not encountered any info on this potential "human" factor in odds calculation:
fumbling with holdem play, it occurred to me that there may be fewer low cards in play than pure statistics would suggest, due to their being folded pre-flop more often than quality cards. Hence when evaluating the likelihood of a potential low straight, pair or triple showing after the flop being completed by opponents may be less that stats suggest, due to being discarded more often than high cards. Is this a reasonable assumption? Thanks..
edit. Originally miss-read your post.
However, you're correct to a degree. But if you're playing nl $1/$2 and above people are tricky.
Joined: Oct '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 43 (M)
Posts: 1086
hmmm
I get your point, but you have to also think about people folding hi/lo hands like K2, J4, q3 etc.
It's all guess work at the end of the day, there are so many factors you have to take into account, and keeping up with that at any table is too much unless you're only playing one. Even if you could work out every player at your tables positional range you still couldn't put together a reliable model.
Joined: Oct '09
Location: Sweden
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 16
ofc u have a point with that, but its not anything u can still calculate beacuse the cards are hidden, but ofc u will have some % wrong beacuse of the already folded cards, but beacuse they are a hidden factor its nothing u can calculate during the hand.. if that makes any sense
Joined: Apr '08
Location: Argentina
Age: 45 (M)
Posts: 748
I'm not sure this holds often enough to be profitable in HoldEm. But in Omaha Hi/Lo agains amateur players, something like that holds. The thing is newbie players in O8 like to play HIGH cards. So if you get into a hand in late position where a lot of people have got in, and you have LOW cards, you can usually be certain that the other guys have a lot of high cards between them. This argues for a low flop and a way for you to steal the pot, or scoop the low while the others share the high
Joined: Nov '09
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 40 (M)
Posts: 309
stats are stats, there are no differing decisions. if you cannot change the cards or the number that come out the probs always stay the same. there is no human factor
Odds in favor of an event are the quantity P/1-P, where p is the probability of the event. Odds against the same event are 1-P/P e.g. I'm thinking of a day and you try to guess. The odds in your favor of guessing the right day from the Week, are 1:6 1/7:1-(1/7) which is 1/7:6/7 (u have to imagine fractions her) = 1/6 or 1:6 The odds against 6:1 (six outcomes against : 1 outcome in your favor)
Probability getting AA: 4 ways of being dealt an A (Ah, As, Ad, Ac) out of 52 choices. After you get dealt an A as the first card there are 3 ways out of 51 to get A as the second card. 4/52 = 1/13 3/51 = 1/17 1/13 x 1/17 =1/221or 1:221
You have an inside straight draw: 3-4 6-7 obviously 5 is missing which gives u 4 outs At the flop remain 47 UNSEEN cards. The probability of catching an out is determine by the odds against. The probability of not catching on the turn is (47-outs):47 and (46-outs):46 of not catching on the river... (no need to continue to calculate odds)
Conclusion: position won't effect the formula. The first A will always have 4 ways out of 52 choices. Hands that are folded are basically still within the probability, unless u cheat and know what was folded Rounding I'd consider as human factor it makes odds and probabilities approximations orin the event in which you miscalculate I'd consider human error I'd be happy to calculate the probability of my opponents behavior, but
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 1886
Posted by cyberbabel: I'm a relative novice with a small question. I have not encountered any info on this potential "human" factor in odds calculation:
fumbling with holdem play, it occurred to me that there may be fewer low cards in play than pure statistics would suggest, due to their being folded pre-flop more often than quality cards. Hence when evaluating the likelihood of a potential low straight, pair or triple showing after the flop being completed by opponents may be less that stats suggest, due to being discarded more often than high cards. Is this a reasonable assumption? Thanks..
If I understand you right, you're saying that there is a higher chance of picture cards coming on the turn and river due to lower cards being folded preflop but this is ridiculous logic. Since you have no idea of what cards have been folded you must always assume any unknown cards are live and part of the deck so there are 47 possible cards after the flop not 24.
It's easier to explain using live games. When the deck is shuffled the order of cards is determined so the actions from then on will not effect the chances of the last card. The chances of a King being the river card is equal to a four or any low card in every single hand although the likelihood of it being seen may be different.
However, if you could see which cards have been folded you could improve your chances of guessing the next card. So you should factor in the cards you put your opponent on.
Therefore what you're saying about low cards being folded more prelop does have some logic. However the only way to factor this in is to look at how many people saw a flop. So for instance if a lot of people called a raise preflop a pair of 4s might have better chances of hitting than a pair of Qs since the agressive/loose preflop action would suggest few low cards were folded and a lot of high cards have already been dealt.
Whereas if only one person called a fairly weak raise, chances are there are a lot of high cards still in the deck and that low straight draw is less likely to hit.
Joined: Apr '10
Location: Romania
Age: 40 (F)
Posts: 183
sometimes it isn't about being amateur or fish entering a raised preflop situation with a low combination,only suited offcourse! i never pay up to all-inn,but when i feel so i push in even 35% of my entire stack to watch a flop with a maximum of two opponents who were raising me but without putting me in an allinn! in tournaments like the MMOP after some thinking for example i made an extremely fishy call:allinn againts 4 opponents with 7 5 suited and i ended up with a straight flush againts AA,AA,KK,KQ from time to time you must risk to end up in a paid position:i earned 1400$ from my first highroller tournament without having an AA,or AK in 3 hours of playing !!!!!
Joined: Jun '09
Location: France
Age: 43 (M)
Posts: 670
Hello everybody! For me the interest that we find some small player cards. It is little surprise that the opponent and getting paid over by an opponent who will not throw his best cards. But you must find your flop See you soon for new posts lol!
