Joined: Oct '09
Location: South Africa
Age: 38 (M)
Posts: 92
So I was doing really well in a tournament, was deep with a huge stack called a raise in position with Ad4d and flop was 5d 10c Js Guy UTG bet min and got 4 callers I was getting about 6:1 pot odds even tho I had missed completely. Question now is: What odds do I need to call for a possible backdoor flush?
Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 40 (M)
Posts: 6483
you need to use one of those calculators that you can put in a range (eg A10s+, 77+, Ajos+) for each opponet plus your own hand and then you could see the % of your probably win based on two more diamonds and weigh that up against the pot-odds you were getting. Personally, I'd fold here.
roughly (turn being diamond 4:1) * (river being diamond 4:1) = 16:1
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 1886
If you need to make a backdoor flush you need a lot better than 6:1 plus you have to account for any full house your ops can make.
However I'd say it's not as simple as working out odds for two diamonds hitting. You have to think that if you get those cards without pairing the board you have the nuts and could potentially more than double up against losing one big blind by calling. So it all depends on what the action is like on the table. Will the betting stay small and/or are the other players loose enough to call should you hit. What do you think happens if you hit a diamond on the turn but you have to call a bet half the size of the pot to see a river.
You also have other runner runner options. K Q or 2 3. And providing the betting stays small an ace could be enough. So in a deepstack situation I would probably call since you have position. And if the betting stays weak I wouldn't rule out a bluff on certain cards.
Joined: Mar '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 44 (M)
Posts: 6714
23/1 odds for a backdoor flush. Just fold., but you also have a backdoor str8(both ways) and an over card, so you can re-calucultae and FOLD. IMO if you were to go for it, you do it raising. IMO you dont think about it.
Joined: Sep '09
Location: France
Age: 43 (M)
Posts: 301
Posted by B1gfoot: 23/1 odds for a backdoor flush. Just fold., but you also have a backdoor str8(both ways) and an over card, so you can re-calucultae and FOLD. IMO if you were to go for it, you do it raising. IMO you dont think about it.
Joined: Apr '08
Location: Argentina
Age: 45 (M)
Posts: 748
You'd need huge odds. Flushes are those type of hands that people see coming a loooong way, so even if you make it you won't (usually) get paid off enough times to offset the risks. Being deepstack won't matter
In any case, if you're going to go for it, don't call: RAISE
Joined: Jan '10
Location: Germany
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 1379
Posted by B1gfoot: 23/1 odds for a backdoor flush. Just fold., but you also have a backdoor str8(both ways) and an over card, so you can re-calucultae and FOLD. IMO if you were to go for it, you do it raising. IMO you dont think about it.
good to know... i still play those draws without any maths. if i think price is too high i fold, otherwise i call (or even rise for a semi-bluff)
Joined: May '10
Location: Romania
Age: 34 (M)
Posts: 148
It's your kind of people that would give me a heart attack and die prematurely...damn it How oh how can you think to pay just to hit runner runner ? Because that's what you need, and a runner runner is almost always roughly 2%... If you considered his range, and the possibility to float him on the turn and/or river, that would be another thing...but this..
Joined: Aug '10
Location: Portugal
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 12
Posted by tomboogy: It's your kind of people that would give me a heart attack and die prematurely...damn it How oh how can you think to pay just to hit runner runner ? Because that's what you need, and a runner runner is almost always roughly 2%... If you considered his range, and the possibility to float him on the turn and/or river, that would be another thing...but this..
this, I would be folding pf, but even if you see that flop never call that bet
Joined: Aug '10
Location: New Zealand
Age: 51 (M)
Posts: 87
Posted by thaMajors:
Posted by tomboogy: It's your kind of people that would give me a heart attack and die prematurely...damn it How oh how can you think to pay just to hit runner runner ? Because that's what you need, and a runner runner is almost always roughly 2%... If you considered his range, and the possibility to float him on the turn and/or river, that would be another thing...but this..
this, I would be folding pf, but even if you see that flop never call that bet
I agree you will not make up the money if you hit your flush. If you do hit you top runner runner straight it will most prob. be a split pot. Chuck the hand and waight for better cards.
