Joined: Jun '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 67 (M)
Posts: 318
does anyone know the true odds of getting trips in the flop from pockets assuming all the relevenat cards in in deck and say 40 odd cards are left. And the true odds on getting trips in spread of all 5 cards its real dumb but i can't seem to get the right maths to work it out.
Joined: Apr '09
Location: Portugal
Age: 44 (M)
Posts: 4827
This is true maths Tox. The possibility of getting t in the first card of the flop should be 1/40, which means 2,5%. But we don't know the cards out of the deck, so this probability should be lower. In a dice, the probability of geting a number is 1/6, or 16,66%. But in a dice there is no number with less probabilities of appearing, and in cards, there are some left which one don't know what cards are. I hope i have somehow helped you with this explanation, but my maths knowledge don't allow me to go further than this. But its an interesting question, which i would also like to see someone explaining it in concrete terms.
Joined: May '09
Location: India
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 4873
i can give you percentages , i am not used to odds flop - 14.615% all 5 cards - 23.717% for 2 outs from 40 cards. btw fakiry for first card it will be 5% since u need any of two cards from 40. so 2/40.
* calculation includes both quads and trips, will post trips only laters when i get some free time.
Joined: Apr '11
Location: Romania
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 6669
Fakiry is right, i know the same thing as he does in terms of odds but i also got your point, but i think it's impossible to say what are the true odds since those depend on each hand...
I mean on a hand it's possible to get zero odds to hit trips if another player or two player have the other two cards in their hands, or even folded them preflop
So these percents are pretty much teoritical, i mean many times you invest money in hoping to get trips but the true odds in reality are zero Thats why i love pot limit omaha, you have a lot more outs, so a lot more real chances to make a strong hand
Joined: Jan '10
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 543
When you calculate odds and outs you should only use the cards which you know... surely every poker player here knows that? i cant believe some of the answers so far... ridiculous. When you are calculating odds you are using info that you know to be fact... ie you have two spades and there are two on the board...wtf are you talking about? True odds are something that comes afterwards, in hand evaluation...it is at your discretion wether you think your opp has a bigger and better draw,and wether you should ship,raise call or fold.... but the cards that make your hand good vs villain do not change as you cannot 100% gtd his hand or range....
Joined: Mar '09
Location: Greece
Age: 47 (F)
Posts: 14136
If there isnt someone here that never uses bankroll management thats dozn But it seems that odds run in his favor lately. Maybe i should sstop talking about this, i dont want to jinx him
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 1886
Posted by tOxIcFiSh: So hitting trips in flop is aprox 14 to 15 percent which equates to 7 to 1 approx and over 5 cards approx little less than 5 to 1
Well the amount of times i miss it should be higher lol but thanks for the info its usful to me and i am pretty sure its accurate to. Cheers ToX
How can you possibly know this? You have 14.6% chance of hitting trips on a flop if both your cards are still in the deck. The only way this statistic is of any value is if you are six handed and everyone is all-in preflop and you have a pocket pair. Can't see that happening enough for you to have an idea in your head about how often you hit.
Fakiry's point is that whenever you work out odds for anything in poker they are only useful if you take into account every card you have not yet seen. This means the odds of hitting trips on your first card is actually 2 in 50 until you see your opponent doesn't have your cards, then its 2 in 48.
Joined: May '09
Location: India
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 4873
yeah agree with shove that you cant neglect the cards in your opponents hands to get correct odds. and for earlier answer being ridiculous, dnt blame me, i just provided him the figures he asked for was surprised too why he was interested in odds outa 40 cards
Joined: Jun '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 67 (M)
Posts: 318
yes READ my origional question it all assumes the cards you need are in the deck sometimes they will sometimes they won't but on average if you take it from a full deck you wont be far out but from a percent point of view if you call any raise with any pockets I would say you need to have a good look at the stack you call from and your own stack.
If over cards come and its odds on they will (unless you have kk or aa) your 50 50 ish but if you hit trips your odds are massive to win. (unless the flop is very draw heavy flush or straight etc) now thats where your odds come to their own.
If your odds are say 7 to 1 to hit trips and you don't have the stack to call better than 7 to 1 then your better of folding pre flop in my opinion and of course who ever is makeing the raise. If that makes sense.
