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What's the part of luck in poker ?
 

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What's the part of luck in poker ?  0   
Alright, here we go again, this is another "Tchungpo's Hot Poll" Big Smile

So, in your opinion, what's the part of luck in poker ?

Things you often hear about poker is something like :
"haha, poker, what a joke, its just a luck game..."
the other extreme would be : "Dont you get it ? poker is only a question of SKILL !"

My answer to this question, and imo, any rational ppl should think this : Poker is a question of both skill and luck. I dont know if it's statistically possible to estimate the part of luck in poker, but i'd say that luck represent like 30-40% of the game (its purely subjective; just how i feel about this, so dont be offenced if u have the true answer).

Nevertheless, if u see thing on the long run, u can think that poker is not a game of luck : u just consider that on a long run, you know how much money you can earn by playing (knowing your ROI). Then, considering things "on average", there is no luck. Of course, it's a very idealistic view of the game, but it's an interesting point of view.

GL (or GS : Good Skill ?) on the tables Tongue Dollar Dollar Dollar

     
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Imo poker it's 49% luck and 51% skill , + - 10% on both Big Smile

     
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luck is temporary skill is permanent Cool
statistically speaking luck factor decreases as you increase the sample size. if you look at a smaller sample obv outliers become more prominent and thats why people think luck is important.

     
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Poker is about skill, luck, patience and timing, and not always in that order! SuperNoob is right when he says that you have to look at a larger sample size before giving too much importance to luck, especially if you are playing freerolls! I recently went through a stretch where all-in preflop with AA vs KK and QQ I only won 1 out of 5, but now I am back on track and winning the correct amount of times in that situation. Right now it's been a while since I hit quads actually, can't wait to snap out of that slump... Evil

     
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Your poll is far too ambiguous and completely unanswerable. Are you talking about a hand of poker? 100 hands? 10,000 hands? 100,000 hands?

A single tournament? A single SNG? 50 SNGs?

These are extremely important factors.

But to put it very simply: In a single hand of poker luck plays an enormous roll and in a lifetime of poker, it plays a far smaller roll.

If you're a solid grinder who multi tables online and smashes insane volumes of hands over the course of a month/year then luck plays a small (but not inconsequential) roll. If you instead however just play the odd live tournament, then luck plays a much bigger roll. In any given tournament a fair amount of luck is required to win.. If you played just 100 tournaments in your lifetime then luck could be a very significant factor.. Particularly if you happened to bink a live major tournament.. you would obviously be very lucky.. Some very skilled people have never binked a major.. Winning the WSOP doesn't mean you're literally the best player in the world.. The best player in the world may have go all his chips in pre-flop with AA and lost to an unlucky board early in the game.

You can't really put a percentage on luck and skill unless you define much better constraints as to what exactly you are talking about.

------------
Also, if you're genuinely interested in this I suggest having a look at this thread, it gives you a bit of a picture about the sort of roll luck may play in the average grinders profits and losses..


http://www.bankrollmob.com/forum.asp?mode=thread&id...

Edited by jessthehuman (02 January 2012 @ 13:45 GMT)


     
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I reread that thread and it was definitely a good one. 2011 was the year of Long Number Probability, let's see what 2012 brings Blink

     
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Posted by jessthehuman:
Winning the WSOP doesn't mean you're literally the best player in the world.

Jamie Gold Tongue
Posted by mahdrof:
2011 was the year of Long Number Probability, let's see what 2012 brings Blink

best poker concept ever Worship Worship Worship

     
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Hey JessTheHuman, thank you for your answer. Of course, i know my poll is way too ambiguous. But the goal is exactly this one : have a simple (and maybe ambiguous thread), let people talk a bit and things become much more precise (as ur answer and the very interesting article you linked).

As i said in my thread, it's all a question of point of view (long or short term consideration for example). But damn, even long run considerations can be frightening as shows your article Big Smile

     
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If there were no luck involved, i would win all of 'em. Blink

Short term luck can be a huge factor, but it will level out over time. But some things can't be solved with statistics: if one is lucky/unlucky at the final table of the main event.

     
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Well luck is a major factor in the late stages of a tournament where coinflip situations frequently occur. Patience is a trade you must possess in order to be successful player in my opinion.

     
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Posted by SuperNoob:
Posted by mahdrof:
2011 was the year of Long Number Probability, let's see what 2012 brings Blink

best poker concept ever Worship Worship Worship


AGREED!

sadly, seems to have disappeared.. last seen:

http://www.bankrollmob.com/forum.asp?mode=thread&id...

Edited by jessthehuman (02 January 2012 @ 15:10 GMT)


     
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75% skill and 25% luck IMO and one of the most important thing is timing (but that is also a part of the skill factor)

     
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Online => 70% luck 30% skill
Live =>> 30%luck 70% skill

The pro's made their money in live games/tournaments!!!

     
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Posted by nsdstefan:
Online => 70% luck 30% skill
Live =>> 30%luck 70% skill

The pro's made their money in live games/tournaments!!!


Care to elaborate?

FYI: I would argue that in live poker you play less hands (no multi table and a lot less hands per hour on a single table) and therefor far less volume, which means you are subject to greater variance over a given length of time. And for this reason I would credit live play as having a larger luck factor.

However - live play also allows for other skill elements that are not possible online (being able to read visual tells is an obvious one). So I can see the argument for live being more about skill also..

     
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Posted by nsdstefan:

The pro's made their money in live games/tournaments!!!


Hum, just check some poker rankings sites.... pro's can make money in online tournaments, trust me xD
(the top 1 pokerstars is now at 990K $ benefit (or something like that) by playing tournaments since 5 years ^^ )

     
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30% luck 70% skill and a lot of prayers when racing LOL Worship Worship Dollar Dollar Dollar

     
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It's nice to think that Luck iss part of a random sample, but it's all based on statistics. Once you become capable of knowing the statistics of poker and how often a specific group of cards will exist together based on how many people are playing and then determine the factor after the flop, there is no luck.
We can consider one as feeling lucky based on recent positive things occurring in ones life. So I don't know if luck can really exist in something that can be statiscally proven. Of course I don't have this capability or I'd be better at playing poker myself. Good Luck to All!

     
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I think that 50% of poekr is luck and the other 50% is statelet, mathematics and variance, poker strategies can be applied based on the mathematics and not chance, greetings.

     
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Posted by Greenmohave:
It's nice to think that Luck iss part of a random sample, but it's all based on statistics. Once you become capable of knowing the statistics of poker and how often a specific group of cards will exist together based on how many people are playing and then determine the factor after the flop, there is no luck.
We can consider one as feeling lucky based on recent positive things occurring in ones life. So I don't know if luck can really exist in something that can be statiscally proven. Of course I don't have this capability or I'd be better at playing poker myself. Good Luck to All!


I don't know about that.. It is about probability.. And in simple terms, if the improbable keeps happening to somebody - then they are either lucky or unlucky based on whether the result was positive or negative.

     
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When an online poker player knows nothing about what he is doing in the tables and still manage not to loose, this means he has lots of luck. When an experienced online poker player wins with 72 against AA because he got 22 at the flop, that is a bit of luck. The scale of luck is different either one is a good or a bad player. The luck is the number of times that the randomizer behind the handset of online tables gives us the cards we want. A good player plays with more hands than a weak player, and a pro player can play with even more hands than a dumb one, because he knows how to act with it, he knows when he can bluff, when he can try to scare others. The weak player will only try to see if he gets some connection between his hand and the table.

     
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