Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 40 (M)
Posts: 6483
Posted by awood88: I personally would bet that flop and fold to a raise.
This would often be my line - however, I had been watching this guy for an orbit and he was very aggressive. I was fairly sure if I put in a flop bet, he was going to test me.. And considering his eventual line, I think if Iflop bet - I was getting raised all-in nearly 100% of the time.. He was committed to his hand I think.
Possibly a flop check-raise may have been an option - although I still think no matter what - either I was folding or putting all my chips in the middle - at his his demand.
Also - lol - whoever came through and give everything a - well done
Joined: Oct '09
Location: Spain
Age: 60 (M)
Posts: 2851
Damn Damn Damn! The site keep logging me out!
I wrote huge answers twice already, all gone. pfffff!
I´ll keep it short this time.
Here´s you definitive answer for folding pre-flop: 1. Early in the Tournament, you´re way ahead. 2. The big stack, the only one who can take you out, has shown strength with a 3-bet (isolation or not) 3. You are NOT prepared to risk your whole stack on 10/10 at this point. 4. Your "implied odds" don´t take into account the "reverse implied odds" of the hand should you make trips. Better trips, flush, straight. 5. You are out of position.
Main point: Would you have called the 3-bet if you were holding 2/2? Because that is basically what you reduced the hand to if you were not prepared to raise big or shove on a low flop. (wisely I might add, but you had already gotten yourself into the hand)
Too many complicated calculations and thoughts in this hand analysis. Sometimes it comes down to something that simple.
My take: Fold pre-flop to the 3-bet of the only stack who can take you out with a hand you are feeling very unsure of.
Edit: This case actually proves that, because even on a low flop, it´s really tough NOT to call and you anded up putting 1/4 of you stack in the middle for nothing. Had he just raised on the turn and then shoved on the river, you might have lost even more. Of course folding immediately to his raise on the flop when missing the trips might have been ok too, but still a waste of chips in my opinion. The 3-bet was too big for set-mining. (the "reverse implied odds" of the hand)
Edited by IslandJack (20 February 2012 @ 01:44 GMT)
Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 40 (M)
Posts: 6483
Posted by IslandJack:
Here's you definitive answer for folding pre-flop: 1. Early in the Tournament, you're way ahead. 2. The big stack, the only one who can take you out, has shown strength with a 3-bet (isolation or not) 3. You are NOT prepared to risk your whole stack on 10/10 at this point. 4. Your "implied odds" don't take into account the "reverse implied odds" of the hand should you make trips. Better trips, flush, straight. 5. You are out of position.
All good points - although, I don't think reverse implied odds really factor in much - they're generally used when thinking about TPTK type hands - I think if you lose set over set, or set vs rivered flush/straight - that is more just a cooler and I think is fairly negligible in terms of EV presented.
Posted by IslandJack: Main point: Would you have called the 3-bet if you were holding 2/2?
Quite possibly I would actually.. Not every time, although - if stacks were even just a little bit bigger - then every time, because I am closing off the action (pre). In some ways - playing 22 here is preferable as it is far easier to conceive the post-flop plan.
Posted by IslandJack:
My take: Fold pre-flop to the 3-bet of the only stack who can take you out with a hand you are feeling very unsure of.
Yes, in the end - I think folding pre is probably the best move, although I think only very marginally, I think if stacks were slightly larger, making set-mining a bit more profitable, I think I'd have to say calling is marginally better.
Posted by IslandJack:
This case actually proves that, because even on a low flop, it's really tough NOT to call and you anded up putting 1/4 of you stack in the middle for nothing.
Yes. Although this came more from me not thinking about it, rather than any inherent issues calling 1010. I simply wasn't expecting a 9 high board. I should have decided pre what my plan was for continuing on such a board and then I wouldn't have played so clumsily / passively on the flop.
Posted by IslandJack:
Had he just raised on the turn and then shoved on the river, you might have lost even more.
Actually - I would have won a s**t load. Because I'd be given the odds to call the turn and the river then lol.
In summary
I agree with most of your points and I think you're probably right about folding pre. However, I think calling is OK - however, this hand illustrates supremely the importance of having a plan, so you don't act stupidly on a difficult board.
I think it's a marginal call either way and I think calling and folding pre is fine.. I think shoving pre is horrible and definitely the worst option. However, the opposite is true on the flop - either aim to get it all in, or none in.
Folding pre is definitely the safest route, there is better spots then facing off against the only person who can knock you out with a marginal hand.
don't see any topics on what you put him on? standard bets usually mean something.
at anytime in this hand that you could of won; would IMO be a check raise on the flop. (he over bet the flop) a substantial re-raise or all-in would have won the hand.
Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 40 (M)
Posts: 6483
Posted by GomerAssassi: (he over bet the flop)
What are you talking about? The pot at the flop was 3,665 and he bet 1,555 .. Less than 1/2 the pot..
Posted by GomerAssassi: I woulda raised pre-flop.
Can you elaborate on this? Why would you do that? And if/when he re-raised allin, what would you do then? I think re-raising pre-flop is perhaps the worse course of action you could possibly take.
Posted by GomerAssassi: a substantial re-raise or all-in would have won the hand.
Well, being able to see his hand - this is possible, however - it is also quite possible he felt pot-committed and was going to snap call anything I did.
All in all, I don't think your comments are very thoughtful and I would go so far as to say you haven't read the thread properly and quite possibly didn't even read the hand history properly.
In particular, I would love to hear your reasoning for re-raising pre.. Considering I raised, I was 3-bet all-in by a short stack and then villain 4-bets to 27bb.
Joined: Oct '09
Location: Spain
Age: 60 (M)
Posts: 2851
Posted by jessthehuman: In summary
I agree with most of your points and I think you're probably right about folding pre. However, I think calling is OK - however, this hand illustrates supremely the importance of having a plan, so you don't act stupidly on a difficult board.
I think it's a marginal call either way and I think calling and folding pre is fine.. I think shoving pre is horrible and definitely the worst option. However, the opposite is true on the flop - either aim to get it all in, or none in.
Folding pre is definitely the safest route, there is better spots then facing off against the only person who can knock you out with a marginal hand.
Thanks for the great response overall Jess. I actually had a whole series of views on the set-mining thing "fleshed out", but after getting my 2 long answers anihilated due to the log-out problem, I kept it to a short one. I was tired and pretty pissed off by then..lol
Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 40 (M)
Posts: 6483
Posted by IslandJack: I actually had a whole series of views on the set-mining thing "fleshed out", but after getting my 2 long answers anihilated due to the log-out problem, I kept it to a short one. I was tired and pretty pissed off by then..lol
Ages ago, I had some severe connection problems - and as a result I constantly lost posts/emails because when I went to submit my connection would drop. As a result I got into the habit of copying all of my posts/emails/etc before I clicked post/submit/send. Now I sitll have that habit, so every time I write out something long, I copy it to the clipboard first.. Have saved myself many a headache..
Joined: Apr '09
Location: Portugal
Age: 44 (M)
Posts: 4827
I guess the villain is equal or better than you. Looking to all of his moves, he must have over pair just like you, the problem is you over pair is low… you played well, slow play at the turn, and reaching this point of the hand could give you enough reasons to want to see what was his hand, but I think I would have folded. At this point you have 9k chips, which is still very good to keep going in the tourney, but if you decide to go for it and lose, you will enter what I call “all-in mode”, with nothing else to fight for.
- well done 
