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Posted by thefly131:
The chance that you loose several times in a row when playing red or black is easy to calculate :

first game : 50%
2 nd : 25%
3 rd : 12.5%
4 th : 6.25%
5 th : 3.12%
6 th : 1.6%
7 th : 0.8%
8 th : 0.4%


This means when you play 8 times in a row (betting on black/red or even/uneven) you will win 199out of 200 times 1 game out of these 8

So if you start to play for 1 dollar or euro and have to double 7 times (1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128)

you need a bankroll of at least 255



absolutely not- the chance of next ball being red/black (excluding zero/zero's) is always 50/50, it doesn't matter if 9 blacks were hit in a row- on the 10-th spin odds of red hitting are exactly 50/50. if you don't believe me- go and learn it the hard way, at the casinos Big Smile

     
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You're right ^

But he just didn't word it very well, this is still ultimately correct - at least from the perspective of before you do your first spin:

Posted by thefly131:

This means when you play 8 times in a row (betting on black/red or even/uneven) you will win 199out of 200 times 1 game out of these 8


     
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Posted by jessthehuman:
Posted by B1gfoot:
Einstein once said......


I wonder what it would take to build a 'speed camera' type device that detects the velocity, angle, etc of the ball spinning on the roulette wheel and calculates a landing position close enough that you can actually gain an edge, all before last bets are called.. And what the chances are of being able to use such a device without being ejected..Anyone really fucking good at physics?? I can program lol..


I guess you need both speed, table and ball, even weight of ball will come in real handy.
Even if you are just handy with a good eye you could narrow the numbers down to around 6 numbers and be a winner.

     
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thx Jessthehuman for clarifying

Before starting 1 game the chance is indead 50 % of winning or loosing.

But if you play 2 times in a row the chance of loosing 2 times is 25%

So the chance of loosing 8 times in a row is about 0.4% before the first spin.

You can try this out with flipping coin : throw 8 times and see how often you will hit 8 times heads

     
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Posted by thefly131:


You can try this out with flipping coin : throw 8 times and see how often you will hit 8 times heads


When I first started coding I used to love making statistical models for gambling examples.. I'd emulate roulette spins, etc - I'd run literally millions of virtual "spins" in a couple seconds and print out results in sets.. like "how many sets of 100 spins showed XXX" and stuff like that.. was interesting for a bit, although I mostly just did it for coding practice, which as far as programming goes, that kind of logic/maths is pretty basic stuff!

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Posted by B1gfoot:
Posted by jessthehuman:
Posted by B1gfoot:
Einstein once said......


I wonder what it would take to build a 'speed camera' type device that detects the velocity, angle, etc of the ball spinning on the roulette wheel and calculates a landing position close enough that you can actually gain an edge, all before last bets are called.. And what the chances are of being able to use such a device without being ejected..Anyone really fucking good at physics?? I can program lol..


I guess you need both speed, table and ball, even weight of ball will come in real handy.
Even if you are just handy with a good eye you could narrow the numbers down to around 6 numbers and be a winner.


Yeah - to model it you would need all the physics elements for everything involved, technically even the weight/density of the wheel (more importantly, the resistance it applied).

I think just eye-balling it you could only ever narrow it down enough to be helpful if you were doing so after last-bets were called.. Unless you were some kind of freaky idiot-savant (I love those guys).

Also OTT - did you recently create a thread about me winning the mob draw and now it's been completely deleted and no evidence of it ever existing??? Or did I just dream that? I dunno, I do drink a lot.

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Posted by jessthehuman:
Posted by thefly131:


You can try this out with flipping coin : throw 8 times and see how often you will hit 8 times heads


When I first started coding I used to love making statistical models for gambling examples.. I'd emulate roulette spins, etc - I'd run literally millions of virtual "spins" in a couple seconds and print out results in sets.. like "how many sets of 100 spins showed XXX" and stuff like that.. was interesting for a bit, although I mostly just did it for coding practice, which as far as programming goes, that kind of logic/maths is pretty basic stuff!

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Posted by B1gfoot:
Posted by jessthehuman:
Posted by B1gfoot:
Einstein once said......


I wonder what it would take to build a 'speed camera' type device that detects the velocity, angle, etc of the ball spinning on the roulette wheel and calculates a landing position close enough that you can actually gain an edge, all before last bets are called.. And what the chances are of being able to use such a device without being ejected..Anyone really fucking good at physics?? I can program lol..


I guess you need both speed, table and ball, even weight of ball will come in real handy.
Even if you are just handy with a good eye you could narrow the numbers down to around 6 numbers and be a winner.


Yeah - to model it you would need all the physics elements for everything involved, technically even the weight/density of the wheel (more importantly, the resistance it applied).

I think just eye-balling it you could only ever narrow it down enough to be helpful if you were doing so after last-bets were called.. Unless you were some kind of freaky idiot-savant (I love those guys).

Also OTT - did you recently create a thread about me winning the mob draw and now it's been completely deleted and no evidence of it ever existing??? Or did I just dream that? I dunno, I do drink a lot.



EDIT: OK - the thread still exists.. It only didn't exist last night when I was really drunk, it showed up again in the morning.. never mind, move on, nothing to see here.

Edited by jessthehuman (23 August 2012 @ 21:43 GMT)


     
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Not claiming there is no trickery involved, but do think its a real attempt, have a search for the full vid if you like.

Derren Brown - Roulette

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7sH-ciHWQw

The problem with going to deep in to it all is that if we get down to subtomacal partical the ball might land in two places at once!

     
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Posted by B1gfoot:
Not claiming there is no trickery involved, but do think its a real attempt, have a search for the full vid if you like.

Derren Brown - Roulette

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7sH-ciHWQw

The problem with going to deep in to it all is that if we get down to subtomacal partical the ball might land in two places at once!



Hmm well.. Derren Brown is a pretty sneaky dude.. I've seen him before, so I definitely wouldn't rule out some kind of trickery there..

     
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Posted by B1gfoot:
I guess you need both speed, table and ball, even weight of ball will come in real handy.
Even if you are just handy with a good eye you could narrow the numbers down to around 6 numbers and be a winner.


It's basic Chaos theory. It is explained well here: http://www.yiin.ca/chaos/content.htm

A chaotic system is not random, but still can not be predicted, because the tiniest variation in starting conditions will affect the outcome completely. In practice you would not be able to even predict which half of the wheel the ball will end up, since you can't account for the variables that occur after the "rien ne va plus".

     
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Nice theory but it help us not .
So it help us to say stay away. Dollar and save you're money for poker.

     
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Posted by marqis:
It's basic Chaos theory. It is explained well here: http://www.yiin.ca/chaos/content.htm

A chaotic system is not random, but still can not be predicted, because the tiniest variation in starting conditions will affect the outcome completely. In practice you would not be able to even predict which half of the wheel the ball will end up, since you can't account for the variables that occur after the "rien ne va plus".


Not quite sure, anything that is not random can be predicted, weather excluded.
Have a butchers at a new science article, http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn4815-alleged-high...
I know the alleged bit will be the focus here.

You can turn the odd on its head at the right tables.

The guy from the 70s...
...http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21428644.500-r...

Edited by B1gfoot (24 August 2012 @ 14:44 GMT)


     
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Posted by Maiju1974:
Nice theory but it help us not .
So it help us to say stay away. Dollar and save you're money for poker.


only problem is that 95% of poker players are losing players so most people who save their money for poker lose it...so maybe those people are better of betting their role on casino games..

     
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cs9zcWGurJU

     
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Posted by B1gfoot:
Not quite sure, anything that is not random can be predicted, weather excluded.


Chaotic systems are not random, but still unpredictable. The outcome is determined by the initial conditions, but in chaotic systems the outcome varies hugely, with the tiniest of variations of the initial conditions. The unpredictability stems from the impossibility of determining the initial conditions accurately enough (it's hard to predict that a colleague scientist, in a building five blocks down the road, might sneeze, during the measurement of the initial conditions, or shortly thereafter, completely changing the outcome...).

"The weather" is the classic example of such a chaotic system.

Posted by B1gfoot:
Have a butchers at a new science article, http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn4815-alleged-high...
I know the alleged bit will be the focus here.

You can turn the odd on its head at the right tables.

The guy from the 70s...
...http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21428644.500-r...


Interesting. If that's true, a roulette wheel is not chaotic, which would be ironic, since it's one of the most often used examples for chaotic systems...

Posted by remco2504:
only problem is that 95% of poker players are losing players so most people who save their money for poker lose it...so maybe those people are better of betting their role on casino games..

Lol. I suspect you have a good point there (not sure about the 95% though, but still a valid point)...
At least in the casino you loose money at a predictable rate, which is roughly equal for all players for games that don't require skill. A bad poker player looses money much quicker than that...

     
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