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Is folding pocket AA pre-flop the right play here?
 

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MMMMMM- My thinking is this highly unreal Scenario is- at this point giving any reality to situation is that blinds must be min 400/800. If Hero folds as chip leader bet utg next hand he will be BB
therefore all remaning short stacks will be in on ante on his big blind and hero sb. which hero can then call to fold (even any two) if raised pre flop or see flop if checked. Likely out come being down to last 3 players anyhow and heads up in no time with limited damage to hero,s HU stack size ??

(sure we have all seen many AA being set mined or beaten by suited connectors )

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Posted by Fakiry:
You are already ITM, you have one of the best hands a player can get, and you have the chipleader going all-in pre-flop before you act, what can you expect better than this for your aces? You have to go for it in this situation. The game is about risking and winning, and with this hand in this situation, you will be risking few (because of the hand's odds) for the best profit you can expect for your hand.

Smile Agreed entirely after all it's only likely to be a $1 max buy in and big stack is behind pre but not the point at hand Thumbs Up Smile

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Posted by yout85:
The odds aren't the be all and end all.... think of this...

If someone offers you a coin flip... if it's heads, you win $2million and if it's tails, you lose $1million. You are getting MAGNIFICENT odds to take that bet - so not taking it would be 'wrong'.....

But taking it would still mean risking $1million on a coin flip.

I know it's not directly relevant to this thread, but it's something to think about for all you people who say "you CAN'T fold aces preflop".....


would i coin flip $1 mill (if i had it) no would i call all in $1 mill hu with AA yes
Big Smile Big Smile Dollar Dollar Dollar Dollar Thumbs Up Dollar Dollar Dollar Big Smile

Edited by oneeye (30 September 2012 @ 01:56 GMT)


     
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Posted by marqis:
Seven of the shortstacks will be all-in, the next hand, due to posting the ante.


Duh, I really didn't think that through. It was half 3 though.

     
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You can´t always want to follow maths in the game, if so this game would be completely different than it really is. Who would re-raise a 93o hand in the middle of the table against all expectations and making everyone fold and put the hands on a big pot if all the players would only think about the maths involved in the game? It's about many other things involved, and that's what turns it funny. In the example you are giving, if your chipleader opponent keeps going all-in from then on every single hand, by the maths you will not be playing aby other hand til the hand of the tourney, in the moment he gets all your stack tht was washed away in the blinds... maths also say this, right? Sleepy

     
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Posted by Fakiry:
You can't always want to follow maths in the game, if so this game would be completely different than it really is.


You raise an interesting point. In this scenario though, what else is there, short of checking your horoscope? (sorry for being facetious, no disrespect intended).
Since the big stack is all-in, your play is limited to call or fold, which is just about a 100% math decision, based on the range you put him on, and the expected value of either calling or folding.

Posted by Fakiry:
Who would re-raise a 93o hand in the middle of the table against all expectations and making everyone fold and put the hands on a big pot if all the players would only think about the maths involved in the game? It's about many other things involved, and that's what turns it funny. In the example you are giving, if your chipleader opponent keeps going all-in from then on every single hand, by the maths you will not be playing aby other hand til the hand of the tourney, in the moment he gets all your stack tht was washed away in the blinds... maths also say this, right? Sleepy

Well, no... You factor in the range of hands your opponents are playing. If someone has a VPIP and PFR of 100%, you can widen your calling range and quickly double up a few times. Your ev is huge here compared to the blinds you lose (unless the blinds are huge also).

I'm not advertising relying only on math based decisions (I sure as hell don't), but I do think a great many of the decisions you face, should be decided by math, and math alone.

I would go as far as to postulate that most players would considerably improve, if they replace their game with a pure math based game (including me)... Playing pure ICM for example.

     
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Statistics , you can proove a lot with them....

but keep in mind in statistics 100% and 0% do not exist.

which means that for calculating chances you never will be sure of a win (before the flop)

so the amount of chips of the bigstack (who can afford more allins) versus you is also an important factor





     
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call here is going to your best chance to go for 1st place....when are you going to stand against a big stack?with a hand like KJ or K10. this is perfect situation to double up and put the pressure on the big stack after winning this hand. take your chance here...you just have aa sometimes..not all the time....

     
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I'm not going to fold Aces here and even if I'm in a wsop main event or in a tournament with a mega monster prize pool... same thing if we r talking about Kings, but for sure I'm folding Queens, AK, all the other hands... that's my opinion Smile

     
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player 1 1500000
player 2 100
player 3 100
player 4 100
player 5 100
player 6 100
player 7 100
player 8 100
player 9 100
Hero 500000

No way in hell i would ever fold them. That is just ridicilous and you aren't considered poker player if you do anything similar. I wouldn't fold pocket kings in that situation either. Cheers.

     
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