Joined: Mar '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 68 (M)
Posts: 197
I would like to take credit for the following post on poker and luck but I cant,,, I came across it in a poker forum and I cant give acknowledgement to it because i forgot to take note of the address, however I found it informing and funny so I thought I would share it with you , the original poster is shown so I hope I am not guilty of plagerism , anyway have a look at the mans post and see what you think,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Pooh-Bah Post: Luck and Poker written by the user ThaHero.
I realize it's somewhat long, and if you decide not to read that's fine. I hope it helps someone. Just writing it really helped me.
I know I'm not the most regular of posters here, and not very popular or respected either, but I still feel the need to write a Pooh-Bah post. Partly because I love poker, partly because I love to write, and partly because I love to help others.
My poker "career" has been a tumultuous one. I've been broke a few times, had lots of money a few times, and floated in mediocrity for most of the time.
I always thought I had terrible luck. One time, after going broke, I went to NVG and BBV and read about other's successes. I searched the board and read the Well's of other posters to see their stories. I turned to my twin brother, after losing my last few dollars, and said, "I'd rather be lucky than smart."
At the time, I meant it. It's where my mind was at during that time. I didn't realize what luck really meant. Over the past few months I've really tried to reflect on my poker playing. I've examined situations, trying to get to the heart of the game. What makes a great player? Are they really just more lucky than the rest of us? Certainly many posters here believe so. I decided to look up the definition of luck:
A "force?" What's that? I love Star Wars and all, but I don't believe there's any mystical force hovering over my head when I go all-in preflop with KK and see my opponent turn over AA, or vice versa. Now, events and circumstances is more concrete.
What are events and circumstances in poker? A hand is dealt(event). You are UTG with 72o(circumstance). Of course you fold. That event and circumstance operated against you. Another hand. You get AA in the big blind. MP raises, Button goes all in. Of course you call. That event and circumstance operated for you. But does this mean you are lucky or unlucky? Let's delve further...
I've heard a lot of quotes about luck in my lifetime. I never really paid attention to them until now. Here are a few good ones that I think we should keep in mind when going through a downswing, or even an upswing, and we think luck has something to do with it:
Luck? I don't know anything about luck. I've never banked on it, and I'm afraid of people who do. Luck to me is something else: Hard work -- and realizing what is opportunity and what isn't. -Lucille Ball
I'm unsure who said the last one, but I've heard it plenty throughout my screenwriting journeys. Did you notice a pattern? The common denominator in all those quotes, for the most part, is hard work.
I remember joining these forums, reading TOP, SSHE, HOH, and thinking I was entitled to winning at poker. I bought PT with poker winnings, PAHUD, etc. The highest I made it before crashing was 100NL and 200NL with brief shots at 400NL and 600NL. I had hit a wall. It put me on tilt really.
"WHY CAN'T I BEAT THESE GAMES!?!?"
I didn't know it at the time. I truly thought I was UNLUCKY. Brian Townsend was LUCKY. CTS was LUCKY. Bruiser was LUCKY. I WASN'T.
A while later, a little reflection, and now I see things much clearer. I see why I didn't beat those games.
I never posted hands here. I rarely replied to hand posts. I rarely reviewed hands in PT. I would look at my basic stats for the day, my winnings(or losses), check out a few bad beats, and be done. I would read a book once and think I understood everything in it. I went back and read Brian Townsend's Well. He said this:
I have spent alot of time playing poker in the past year. I completely immersed myself in poker. I have read every poker book, spent countless hours browsing and reading forums, spent even more hours analysising my play and my opponents plays. And then beyond this I have played endless hours. I really enjoy playing and I think if you don't you will never reach your fullest potential. You really have to love to play the game.
Did I love playing poker? Of course! Did I "immerse" myself in it? Not quite. Did I read every poker book? Certainly not, and the ones I did I only read once. Did I spend countless hours on 2+2 or other forums? Nope, unless it was reading OOT or BBV4L or some inconsequential forum. I didn't do much analyzing of my play, and certainly didn't look at what my opponents did. I didn't even put in "endless" hours when I did play. I played more than most people I knew, but not endlessly. I'd make enough to buy some shoes or a video game, d**k around in the Stud games a bit, and stop playing for the week or month.
Luck had nothing to do with it. It was my unwillingness to work hard. I undestand not everyone has the ability to immerse themselves in poker. This forum has a wide variety of posters. Many have families, jobs, etc. I had a few obligations, mainly school, but I certainly had plenty free time, mostly spent watching t.v.
I had the circumstances to be a great player if I wanted. I had the opportunity. Did I prepare? Nope. Another quote:
I had set myself up for my own failure! I didn't even know it. I would blame a poor run of cards on going broke, when in actuality it was a lack of preparation coupled with poor bankroll management.
This is dragging on so I'm going to conclude with this. Prepare for every opportunity. If you want to be great at poker, you have to do this. Understand the game so you don't put yourself in tough spots(circumstances). Get in +EV situations(circumstances) and get your money in(event). Work on table selection(preparation) and get on tables with plenty fish(opportunity).
Every +EV situation is an opportunity. You can't identify them unless you prepare. Sure, you will lose. That's where the last definition of luck comes in. There is a 5% chance your opponent will hit his out on the river. One day, that card WILL hit. And AGAIN. And AGAIN. Don't fight this. It isn't back luck. It's just chance. You've already done all you can- you worked hard. If you work hard at poker, you WILL WIN. It's a game of skill. Stop counting real money over the short term and instead count Sklansky Bucks and G Bucks over the long term. On the other side of that 5% chance is a 95% chance. Make sure the majority of your bets are on the good side of chance.
I'm not telling you to remove luck from your vocabulary. Keep it there. Simply change the definition. Make it mean something else.
From now on, I have good luck, because I vow to work hard. At poker, and more importantly, at everything else in my life.
Good Luck.
Well that gets rid of the bad luck excuse for loosing at poker eh guys ,, dont know what I am going to use now,,,,,,,,,,lol,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,gl,,,,,,,or should I say work hard ,,,,lol,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Arctic
Edited by ArcticCorsair (21 April 2008 @ 17:15 GMT)
Joined: Jan '08
Location: Denmark
Age: 44 (M)
Posts: 481
Good post, but when i play online poker those 5% for the suckout seems like 95% chance of suckout. What would you do if the poorest player on your table push all in on your AA? You gonna call, and everytime i call he has 56 or some crap. And hit straight more ofthen than not. So either luck is a big part poker or online poker is rigged. Everyone says, in the end of the year the better player will take home the money. But what can you do when you keep busting on the best hand? You gonna fold everytime you have the best hand on flop and the noob goes all in? There will always be a few players on the table who cannot even spell poker. And they seem to bad beat everyone all the time. They will be there all year. Im not kidding, i ALWAYS lose to a badbeat or suckout when i care to play decent. My ROI stinks on online poker, but among friends im a good player.
When i started on online poker about 10 months ago i couldnt tell the diffrence on a straight or a flush. I kept asking what is what... I won so many SnG in the start, i took alot more chances when i had draws. And made alot of suckouts. When i look back i was just a donk, but i won more.
Its a shame, but from now on im only gonna play tournaments online. In tournaments bad beats occur too, but mostly i dont play more than a few hands the first hour. And after the break the most donks and players who relie on luck is out.
Joined: Mar '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 68 (M)
Posts: 197
sorry to here it bud, but we all have bad beats and long downers , I aint won a penny for 3 weeks, but the optimism shown above is reflected by statistics and 1 problem I find with online poker is playing low stakes .. I find you get more chancers at the lower levels, trying there luck!! on low percentage calls that bust the better hands,, the problem is that if you move up and aint got the roll to support the move which has been my prob in the past , moving up to quick,,,a few bad beats or bad calls can fook ya right up,,,,,but just suck it up man you will get yer turn if you kep playing your game ,, the luck will even out,,if it is luck thats the problem,,,the post above says luck is not the answer,,,,I am still trying to work out the flaws in my game,,,but in the main I think the above post answered most of my questions as far as luck is concerned
I hear what your saying enta. you must play at FTP if you see so much suckouts lol. when I started playing it was with friends for low stakes cash about 3 years ago. made alot of money by being willing to spend some cash on draws. hit a draw 1 out of 5 times and make a little raise to make the money back and some for the 4 times you dont hit. but once i started playing at the casinos i was able to tune my game up. learn to play different gears and switch. the most money i ever won though was $10,000 in a $100 buy in tourney at the casino, and it was just luck i won it. i had 3 four of a kinds, a good dozen flushes, half a dozen boats, even a couple straight flushes. sometimes its a little luck, anything can happen with those first 3 cards
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 1886
i think luck or chance is a big part of poker. if 2 7 had no chance at all of beating AA poker wouldn't b poker. i'v been on both ends of a bad beat. sometimes im lucky, sometimes im not. in the end im sure im up in poker because im gd at it. but even pros need to get lucky sometimes. i don't believe u can make yourself lucky. you can't control the cards. u can only play the best with what ur given
LUCKY IS AN IMPORTANT COMPONENT OF LIFE AND OF THE 
