Joined: Feb '08
Location: Sweden
Age: 38 (F)
Posts: 106
I have a question of this.. Like the Subject says.. But, how big chance is it that this guy have a good hand when he checkraises? If he Checks 50%, bets 50% and checkraises 50%.. Thank you in advance!
Joined: Jan '08
Location: Canada
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 2698
It depends on the player, he could be checking when he has a good hand and betting when he doesnt have a hand`or vise visa. But if the player was totally random than I can help
Basically, he will have a pair or better 32% of the time he check raises on flop if he is totally random.
check raise is a good strategy in every situation. your opponent can bluff but can also have a good hand. depend by the player, the position, the situation. you must read right the hand and decide to do. there isn't an universal reason of the check raise
if he decides to check his worst hands, bet his middling hands and only check raise his best hands in that spread then depending on how often he enters the pots you can assign him different values. His range of just check calling or check folding would be no pair or a weak draw ie a gut shot, betting would be somthing like top pair weak kicker or a strong draw and check raising would be something like top pair top kicker over pair two pair or better.
if he was honestly check raising one third of all hands he entered then his range would be much larger than someone who only check raised an 8th or a tenth of the time or less, if we were up against someone who only check raises occasionally his range is something much stronger, it is almost certainly top two, set or better and we could start laying down hands like bottom two.
Joined: Jan '08
Location: Canada
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 2698
Hes putting money in 75% of the time on the flop so hes obviously bluffing quite a bit. I would assume he check raises his stronger hands and bets his weak hands but you have to play and watch him to see what he does.
Joined: Sep '07
Location: Sweden
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 244
well if you have a big bankroll maybe its time to buy some information. Call him down. Or just have some patience sooner or later you will get your unbeatable hand hopefully he tries the same thing then.
Posted by GeneYuss: Hes putting money in 75% of the time on the flop so hes obviously bluffing quite a bit. I would assume he check raises his stronger hands and bets his weak hands but you have to play and watch him to see what he does.
it depends on how tight he is preflop, if he only played premium hands he could quite easily have a hand that often, say he only played AA KK QQ and AKs, that would be a spread of hands that could connect with the flop 75 percent of the time. if you assume that an overpair is worth check raising
it also depends on what you call a hand, a pair is only 32% to happen, but arent you like 18% on top of that to hit a flush draw if you playing suited?
Joined: Jan '08
Location: Canada
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 2698
Its 11% to hit a flush draw when you're suited. And if the guy is going to bet/reraise his bottom pair, under pair than thats still a bluff or at least semi bluff. And most likely there will be pots with more than 2 players in it and how could this guy be ahead 75% of the time, only way would be extremely tight preflop like only play 1 in every 20 hands.