Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 38 (M)
Posts: 2064
Thanks again
...Actually - 15 is an over-estimate if anything. Right now only around 6 or 7 are starting per hour. I know that picks up drastically at peak times, but the slow start gives me every opportunity to stay ahead of the game.
As the tie break is VERY unlikely to come into it other than the $0 guesses, I'll elaborate a bit more on what I know...
At the slowest time of day around 5 or 6 start an hour. At the busiest time around 20 - 22 start an hour. I believe when I start that somewhere between 10 and 12 will start in the first hour and between 12 and 15 in the second hour. These tournies take at longest 2 hours to finish if I make it to heads up (in which case I'll win at least 48.6 extra buy ins - 68 at most). They take around an hour to make it into the money, if I cash I'll win at least 2.4 buy ins.
Although I know it's not going to be easy to begin with, I know it's possible to keep in front of what I need. I also know that I am likely to dip at the end due to tiredness, so I'll need to be comfortably ahead of the game to see it through to the end.
I am under no illusions - I know this will be tough... but if it wasn't tough, it wouldn't be a challenge
------------ ...I am taking this VERY seriously and I am VERY determined to succeed.
After the deadline for guesses, I will post my own prediction for how I'll do... without wanting to give anything away - I predict I'll make it to the end - that's all I'll say for now
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 38 (M)
Posts: 2064
Well, thanks for making your first ever post on here such a negative one Indide
Don't wanna jinx myself.... but your guess is very wrong, but I'll record it along with all the rest, despite the fact you clearly haven't read the instructions and have posted it on the wrong thread.
If I do go 30 tournies without cashing, the $10 is yours
Joined: Dec '12
Location: Bulgaria
Age: 47 (M)
Posts: 1022
Posted by yout85: I've added a little info about the tournies on a recent post on the main thread, so if anyone wants to change their guess based on that, then you are more than welcome to do so.
------------ and Peter.... Am I correct in assuming you meant 140 tournies, not 14?
I've red the new posts here from you and now I understand that you will play 15 tourneys per hour which means the maximum is 360 tourneys per 24 hours.
But yesterday I had other calculations. I thought that you will play one tourney per hour. So I thought the maximum could be 24 tourneys. But i opened one SNG and I saw that if you reach the final table you will play at least 3 hours at one tourney. So, that is why I posted 14 tourneys.
But Now I get your point and I will change my betting at the other thread. I am answering you here, because I would like the betting topic to stay clear, only the betting results to stay there.
Now I will post onother betting which you will count as the real betting, ok?
Cood luck with your challenge, mate! Cross fingers for you!
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 38 (M)
Posts: 2064
Thanks again...
Just to clarify - I will play EVERY tourney throughout the day. The tournies start once 360 people have registered.. I estimate it will be around an average of 15 an hour, but that is only a guess.
And also, I have never seen one of these take 3 hours... 2 hours is a particularly long one.
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 38 (M)
Posts: 2064
lol yblod... I've pointed that out to him...
The competition side of things is just for a little fun, so it's only fair I point out let's say "unlikely" guesses
I'm quite shocked at the amount of people who think I'll go immediately broke, but I guess it's my job to prove them wrong
------------
Not sure you will get as high as Peter thinks though
He sure has a lot of faith in me
...I've put some guidelines on the other thread to point people in the right direction - again, anyone who wants to change their guess can do so as many times as they like before 9:30am Saturday UK time (8:30am BRM time). Only your most recent guess will be counted.
Joined: May '13
Location: Romania
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 3
Posted by yout85:
I'm quite shocked at the amount of people who think I'll go immediately broke, but I guess it's my job to prove them wrong
------------
I`ll be happy for you if u succed but in this type of tournaments (microstakes) badbeats happens more often because many fishes donk like to fold trash cards.If u wait just TT+ the blind will beat you. If u play AT+ You got just 46% odds preflop and im sure that you will be dissapointed postflop.
Joined: Dec '12
Location: Bulgaria
Age: 47 (M)
Posts: 1022
Ok, I red your new posts. Thanks for the info, yout85. So, for the last third time I will put my betting now and it will be counted like my real betting. I see you said it is too optimistic, but I really trust you. Now I will change it.
Good luck at the tables! ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
P.S: By the way I am thinking to make a similar thread very soon! It will be: How much could I win if I play 24 hours at the Full Tilt Poker ring tables $0.01 / $0.02 ? I will say what will be my starting bankroll and I will make soon something similar. Definately I will give a prize if someone guess. But still thinking how to create it. Soon, waiting a challenge from me too!
I am thinking to do this, because wolfydan has inspired me with with his thread: "Hey guys, some free cash "
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 38 (M)
Posts: 2064
I just noticed there was an extra cent sitting in my account bullet... so I sent it you so I can't be accused of cheating
------------ ...I don't wanna jump the gun, but I've been thinking about what to do after this (besides sleep for days).
I've decided, if it goes badly - I'll look to learn from how and where it went wrong and give it another bash...
If it goes well, I'll do a similar thing with the $1.10 45 man turbos, and then maybe all micro NLH tournies... I will decide once this challenge is over.
Joined: Dec '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 38 (M)
Posts: 707
yout85 I don't mean to be so negative, i have searched you and seen that you are a good enough player to do this BUT if there were a certain amount an hour then it would be easier to credit you for doing this.
now these tourneys run as soon as 360 players are registered, weekends tend to be when most traffic hits ps.. so say for talks sake, 15 games in 1st hour 10 in 2nd 10 in 3rd. now with your bankroll you will be able to register for all 15 in 1st hour, and 10 in 2nd hour BUT you will only be able to register for 5 in 3rd hour, if you make final table say in around 2 hours that will instantly take you into your 3rd hour, then you will have to decide whether to play for 1st or go bust so that you can afford more games in 3rd hour, that is the reason why i'm doubting you, it's certainly not for your skills because i reckon you could easily win plenty of them if you done so many an hour, but for registering for everyone or else fail, that is to much of a task in my opinion
your still going to attempt so good luck, and also how do we know that you havn't skipped a game?
Joined: Feb '13
Location: Netherlands
Age: 51 (M)
Posts: 508
I've got a question.... U'll be playing every 360 10 cnts sng for 24 hours, atleast thats the plan... Aldow I hope U succeed and make a very nice profit for aswell Bullet as urself... there is something bothering me... U say threre will start arround 15 games an hour, so if al goes well in the 2nd hour U be playing 30 SNG's at the same time..... and u will continu do this for 24 hours..... How will U keep an eye on the tables, how will u know who plays tight and who's a donk ?? I think U miss some important info bout ur oponents... and how will play the HU's if u make it to last 2 and what if that happens in more sng's at the same time.....playing 30 tables at the same time is just to much in my opinion.. or it goes wrong or U go mad ( I would go mad for sure) am I afraid. Still I think its a nice adventure and I hopeU will succeed
My guess is that U will stop after 47 games with a profit of 19,82 Dollar so with the 3 dollar that makes ur bankroll 22,82 dollar
If I am closest I dont want the tenner as I I do have a bit of a br these days so I want U to use it on one of ur next adventures...wish U best of luck with ur adventure and following it here.
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 38 (M)
Posts: 2064
Hi grahamy, thanks for your comments... I have already thought of, and taken all of what you have just said into consideration. I have worked out that in order to not go broke, I'll need to cash in at least one of the first 10, one of the next 10 and one of the following 10 - If I get off to a bad start, I WILL fail... so the start is vitally important. This is the main reason I'm starting it relatively early in the morning, when the traffic will be lighter to give myself the best chance of a good start. Once it's up and running and I'm in anywhere between 10 and 25 tournies, I'll have to maintain around a 12% ITM ratio to increase my bankroll. I'm sure I can accomplish that.
I picked Saturday to do it BECAUSE it will be the busiest day, and it will give me the opportunity to play the most possible tournies.
And I guess there isn't really a way you can be sure I haven't skipped one. You're really just gonna have to take my word for it - but I assure you I won't skip any. TableNinja will be trying to register me in one once every minute - So it will register me in every one. Once I've started TableNinja registering, it won't stop until it can't buy in, or the 23 hour registration period is over.
As I am paying out a $10 prize regardless of the outcome, and 40% of my final roll ONLY if I accomplish it - I have nothing to gain from pretending I've succeeded if I haven't.
Like I've said before - I know this will be tough - I intended it to be tough... but I also KNOW it is very possible. IMO, the lasting the 24 hours physically and mentally is the bigger challenge than maintaining my bankroll.
And I am also aware that I could very well go broke - I'm not so confident that I think that can't happen. I'm just gonna do everything in my power to prevent it
------------ Hi mies, I think that once everything is underway, I'll consistently be playing anywhere between 15 and 30 tournies simultaneously. You are right in saying that means I can't pay attention to the players on my table... but that just means I will adjust my game accordingly. I'll work on the assumption that everyone is solid, and only make what I consider to be solid positive EV plays. I am an experienced multitabler - I have played upwards of 50 tournies at a time in the past for a few hours, and upwards of 30 live tables at a time before too. So that side of things doesn't cause me too much concern.
Ps... I won't include your guess, as you don't wish to be eligible for the $10 prize, but I'll still point out that it DEFINITELY won't be right. I WILL NOT STOP WITH BANK ROLL REMAINING. (unless I happen to pass out ) But I'm kinda planning on not passing out
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Philippines
Age: 39 (M)
Posts: 87
does the promo includes the cents or is it going to be rounded to the nearest whole number? my guess will be 24$ GL to you buddy i hope you keep up the phase and be up for 24HOURS! thats a sick one havent played for that long my longest was 16 and i am damn tired lol.
keep me updated if its ok to rail on some of your games please let me know your PS id thank you!
Joined: May '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 38 (M)
Posts: 2064
Oh and grahamy... can I ask what your final guess is please? Just so I can be sure. I need to know what you think closing bankroll will be - and how many tournies you think I'll play so I can make your guess official.
------------ paul - the winner will be the closest to the final bankroll to the cent. In case of a tie, the tournies played will be the tiebreak.
You are more than welcome to watch me - my screen name is yout85 - but I won't have the chat window on, so there's no use trying to talk to me. I will have the info tab on at all times.
I will post a very quick update on here at each break, telling you all what my current bankroll is, and how many I've bought into.
------------ Also paul... can you say which out of 150 and 300 tournies played you wanna go with - you've posted a different guess on each thread
for doing the research - glad to see you're taking this seriously. best of luck with the challenge.
lol. 
