Joined: Dec '11
Location: Argentina
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 25
Many of you , especially those initiated in poker will think that poker is just luck . Well, judging by the experience that I have , that I have not really much , I have to say no . There is one factor , rather low , which is luck. But it is the most importante.poker Poker ? Luck or know how to play ?
As time goes on and you learn to play poker , you will realize this. It is true that many times, with a pair of aces , we can lose the game. Now, to see if we have played well , we would have to look at the game in detail. Many times , especially the rookies , lose one game with two aces in hand , because they could not gamble right at the right time .
Unlike casinos where the games in there is the luck factor which is quite predominant in poker we have to take into account the chances we have of winning a hand or not. For this there are some programs that are calculators to calculate the probability that we have in each case.
When you've played many hands you will know if you have to bet, check or Raisear . This, unfortunately , is learned losing and playing. As we said, when you take a lot of time playing , you know make these important decisions .
Joined: Oct '11
Location: Sweden
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 1410
well, I used to think that there was about a 50/50 luck/skill factor going on in poker. But after a while when I started to understand the game better and could make more good decissions based on previous hands with a certain opponent or based on the pot odds, I started realizing that maybe there was a way bigger skill factor going on.
Now I would say that there is about a 2/98 luck/skill factor. You need some luck to actually hit your cards, altho probability tells us that you will in the long run get that card the number of times that your percentage tells you you are. But hey, everyone takes a gamble ones in a wile and that's really the only place that I think the luck factor comes into play. Most of the time, it's pure skill really, it may take a wile to even out if you're on a downswing but if you're a skilled player, things will turn out in your favour.
That's at least my take on things and hey, you don't have to agree with me on this one but at least for me, it's the right way to look at it.
Joined: Apr '11
Location: Romania
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 6669
You are absolutely right, i mean all that play this game need to understand that you cannot only win at poker but it's important that in final to be on profit.
Also luck plays an important factor, i mean you could be the best at strategy but if you get only bad cards it's useless for that day.
Joined: May '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 2219
I would say 50% skill and 100% luck and chance.
------------ How often can KK lose to a limper calling with a cunting Axo. That and flushes happen way too often, so I take back that 50% skill as its all luck.
Joined: Feb '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 62 (M)
Posts: 169
First thing ..you are young 20, so u lack experience of game play levels
I have played poker for 7 years 4 online approx, 3 years live and 40 years of card player gambling started when we were 7yrs old yep true.
.now online poker is diff than live as u know..., rem with the fast play online u actually don't always need a hand if u understand poker dynamics positional play and your table mindset and how the players read u & U THEM ..etc etc etc
TO play free rolls and low level micros won't work for many, also luck is last thing on a pro players mind, if u rely on it give up poker, it's only a small irregular factor, and usually it's via a beat either way. so throw luck out and play a A game always,
if u dont annalise your play after a session you won't learn good poker. but keep repeating bad habits....be true and honest of your self in the game and you will improve ...reading the board and players betsizes is key also. discipline patience are best main factors, also don't forget to fold more often.
i poker coached many low level friends n people to cash over last 3 years myself included ..so don't give up .. i played 3 years at full tilt on freerolls, didn't deposit till i was ready then cracked some good ones ...takes time to regualur cash..but it can and as been done by many..as u know! victoryv111 - poker warriorz crew gl but don't rely on it.create HIT (TIP).focus on a gg
.....so if luck is a coin flip/gamble, then, to get ones money in good and lose is variance....to lose the majority of the time this way is bad variance...this can lead to the mire contained in the bowels of a down swing .....unlucky u
Joined: Jun '13
Location: Netherlands
Age: 44 (M)
Posts: 257
Posted by matiih17: Many of you , especially those initiated in poker will think that poker is just luck . Well, judging by the experience that I have , that I have not really much , I have to say no . There is one factor , rather low , which is luck. But it is the most importante.poker Poker ? Luck or know how to play ?
As time goes on and you learn to play poker , you will realize this. It is true that many times, with a pair of aces , we can lose the game. Now, to see if we have played well , we would have to look at the game in detail. Many times , especially the rookies , lose one game with two aces in hand , because they could not gamble right at the right time .
Unlike casinos where the games in there is the luck factor which is quite predominant in poker we have to take into account the chances we have of winning a hand or not. For this there are some programs that are calculators to calculate the probability that we have in each case.
When you've played many hands you will know if you have to bet, check or Raisear . This, unfortunately , is learned losing and playing. As we said, when you take a lot of time playing , you know make these important decisions .
its just luck becouse evry hand can win ,thats why even aa can lose easy.
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 1859
It's simple - the more you play and the more volume you put in,the closer you get to your true winrate. There is a standard daviation between winning and losing,a line above and a line below the breakeven point. Based on your skill,and the more tourneys/hands you put in,the closer the daviation between winning and losing gets (shifts to one side,either above the breakeven point or below).
Below I attached an example of what I mean - 5BB/100 hands winner over 100K hands. You see even with this considerably high winrate longterm,you can run breakeven over 100K hands. If you analyze it with 1M hands for example,the best result and the worst result will shift more towards the "expected" line.
Joined: Sep '13
Location: Bosnia and Herzegovina
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 1564
id say something that hasnt been said before
i think its 90% skill and 60% luck.
no really, i suck at maths.
but in the long run, you still need luck to win it its much more noticeable if you play mtt's, in cash game if you do something +ev its sure to pay after xx number of hands. but for mtt's all you need is 1 bad beat and ur out, so yea while luck isnt the most important factor (obviously) it still plays a huge rule when it comes to tourneys, much much more than regular ring games.
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 1859
Posted by Theapple: but in the long run, you still need luck to win it its much more noticeable if you play mtt's, in cash game if you do something +ev its sure to pay after xx number of hands. but for mtt's all you need is 1 bad beat and ur out, so yea while luck isnt the most important factor (obviously) it still plays a huge rule when it comes to tourneys, much much more than regular ring games.
While what you wrote is true,if you play huge volume and are largely +EV then you get loads of deep runs,obviously the more deep runs you get,the larger the chance is to get through here and there. I can't think of an online MTT pro that plays large volume (I don't talk about any less than 5000 MTTs per year) that had a losing year.
Joined: Sep '13
Location: Bosnia and Herzegovina
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 1564
Posted by BeMyATMplz:
Posted by Theapple: but in the long run, you still need luck to win it its much more noticeable if you play mtt's, in cash game if you do something +ev its sure to pay after xx number of hands. but for mtt's all you need is 1 bad beat and ur out, so yea while luck isnt the most important factor (obviously) it still plays a huge rule when it comes to tourneys, much much more than regular ring games.
While what you wrote is true,if you play huge volume and are largely +EV then you get loads of deep runs,obviously the more deep runs you get,the larger the chance is to get through here and there. I can't think of an online MTT pro that plays large volume (I don't talk about any less than 5000 MTTs per year) that had a losing year.
never said you have to be losing player for bad beats to kill you. MTT players arent like sng/cash grinders (well most arent, thats it) so just wont be happy to get itm and bust, every mtt is played with 'in it to win it' mentality, and unlike sngs people are willing to risk bubble/a few places difference (which actually can be huge in $) and all it takes is one bad beat to kill your perfect 7-8 hrs long run and no amount of mtts (volume) can bring that back
sngs/cash games are 'easy' but boring and they are literally a grind, but at least you know that if you play your A game in the long run, youre going to make a profit and even 10 bad beats in a row wont stop you from getting that money back, maybe even that same day
so yea while i get your point and completely agree with almost all you said, mtts are much more reliant on luck than other players
ah and btw that 90-60% was a joke, but if its 90-10 ratio in cash/sngs its defo a bit lower for tourneys players.
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 1859
I see you get the point,however if you play large volume luck doesn't matter at all. Even for MTT pros,luck can only effect them in huge buy in tournaments,to stop them from getting life changing cash sometimes. However,for most online MTT pro's MTTs remain as a huge grind for them. I've often seen that if a MTT grinder who plays his schedule day in- day out win the sunday million and grind just as usual instead of going on vacation with his newly won $200K. So really MTTs are the same as SNGs in the long run,you just need a much,much bigger samplesize. If you grind 180 player SNGs (which is what most MTT grinders use to get up their volume,I'd even consider them as MTTs,and there are people having player over 100K of them,shen888 for example),over the time you can build a samplesize that tells you much about your winrate too,it just takes a few thousands of more games than 9 mans do,and the same applies to MTTs,just that you need an even bigger samplesize there.
It's mostly luck in 1 tournament i cracked KK and AA with 22 and went on too finish 2nd in the turny if you keep getting dealt high pocket pairs and premium hands like AK suited or AQ suited then you have an advantage and should play these hands Aggresively and it's all about winning coin flips where most of the time you are ahead pre flop.
Joined: Nov '13
Location: Macedonia, The former Yugoslav Republic of
Age: 38 (M)
Posts: 229
Hi mates , I belive that you need luck in today online poker , epspecially if you play online poker at Pokerstars. I cannot belive how much luck you need in 15000 tournaments. You know not allways winning hand is monster hand.
Joined: Feb '09
Location: Finland
Age: 33 (M)
Posts: 224
Posted by doomdy: With a really high volume its 99% skill and just 1% luck.
Agree on that would even say 100% in the long run its never about luck.. Of course luck comes in the play in high volume but only that are u winning 1000d or 1100d... Thats my opinion
.....unlucky u
