Joined: Jan '13
Location: Slovenia
Age: 50 (M)
Posts: 13
Hi All!
In a month and half of steady play (bit up bit down) but still earning some money... In 27k hands I made $180 profit in 45 days (12k NL2=$65, 15k NL4=115) . In last 4 days and 4k hands I lost everything I earned on NL4 and have to move slowly back to NL2 now.
In last 4k hands: - 16x pocket AA I won 15 times blind and 1 time I lost 1,5 BI - down few cents - 15x pocket KK once won BI, 3 times lost BI, 11 times won blind - down $8 - 10x pocket QQ once won BI, 2 times lost BI, 7 times won blind - down $4 - 49x AK - down $7 - 42x AQ - down $2 - 35x AJ - up $3???
Whole problem becomes at the moment when I realize that my F stats and play didn't change at all. MY VPIP is around 23 an PFR 18. I think this is total joke and variance is not supposed to be by plan as it is here. It's too predictable this random.
In last year, since I'm playing poker, this is 6th such occasion. 5 times till now I was just on edge to move to higher limit (from NL2 to NL4 on different sites) and at that moment I was not able to win a hand anymore...
With this post I just hope that someone will see this post and unplug me from their milking machine. I think they know very very good who is going to give money in who is going to take it out (that little bit when they're finished with grabbing) and who are (me) those medium players that will bring them a lot of rake without depositing or withdrawing.
Turn:(8.5 BB, 2 players) 6:diamond: Hero bets 6 BB, UTG raises to 19.5 BB, Hero raises to 33 BB, UTG raises to 141.75 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 88.5 BB and is all-in
Joined: Sep '13
Location: Bosnia and Herzegovina
Age: 38 (M)
Posts: 1564
Posted by bolhec5:
In last year, since I'm playing poker, this is 6th such occasion. 5 times till now I was just on edge to move to higher limit (from NL2 to NL4 on different sites) and at that moment I was not able to win a hand anymore...
when that happens, and youre close to tilting (or even without it) you should move down a level asap. Because regardless of how well you play if you think youre on a downswing its much easier to survive it at NL2 than 4/6 especially since im not sure what your budget was ($180?). And im not talking about moving down a level when your budget goes down to NL2 limit, but right away when you realize its gonna end ugly. Judging by your post by now you should be able to predict when is that going to happen :=)
sometimes its not just levels really, we all go through it but i have learned to drop a level (or even two) if im 100% positive im on a downswing and close to going tilt also, it helps to take a break when you see things are going the way you dont want them to go (this comes with experience) because at some point you can prevent going tilt and ull find yourself much less prone to doing things like going miles of ur range (aka shoving with 27o just because u think bb is tight player ).
ah and once again, regardless of how well you play we all go through periods of not being able to win pretty much any hand regardless of how strong it might look like, and thats why its important not to overplay your budget - tomorrow is another day, just take a break, or even review your hands if ur still in a mood for poker- and (as long as u got a budget for it, and play by the 'book', more or less) ur climb back.
ah and one more thing, when it comes to switching limits, you should play just a few tables at first because playing too many tables will just make you play like you did at micro limits, on semi zombie mode, which in the end makes you too predictable and thats a no go at non-micro limits
dear lord that ended up way ... way more than i wanted to say at first. actually i just wanted to tell you how we all go through it and not to go over ur budget (aka go down a level if needed) and, as cliche as it sounds - all that (both bad and good) variance evens out with time
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 1859
If you believe it's just the variance then just keep grinding,but maybe look for plugging leaks as well. I'm not a cashgame expert as I mostly grind SNGs/MTTs,but to me you go broke too light in some of the above hands (especially the KQ hand,the K2 hand I could see myself folding vs. this villain too). You can get it in against loose randoms in these situations,but the stats of these players are fairly tight,I don't really think you are ahead of their range here,especially in the KQ hand. Also,what I see from those hands is that you don't really consider future-postflop play in your preflop actions. Your 3bets are very small,while you are playing OOP postflop. Especially in the last hand I don't like the flat call with AA here vs. an unknown player (the 0/0 doesn't mean anything after 2 hands of course). vs. someone 3-betting very light and small and folding to 5bets alot,this would be a possible play,but don't do it here. Keep it simple,especially at these limits. 'Less is sometimes more' you know You seem to have the right additude to make money and improve so keep going,use all sources you can to improve,and keep putting in the volume,gl
Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 41 (M)
Posts: 6483
Posted by doomdy: Variance is a bitch. But you need to have a decent sample size to even complain about variance
With 4K hands talking about variance is a bit strange
Heya mate! Been a long time..
And yes - talking about variance with a sample size of ~4,000 doesn't make any sense.. I honestly used to have more hands than that in a single day of playing, back when I was playing regularly.
------------ Also - if you lose 45 buyins across only 4,000 hands.. that's probably something more than variance.
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Romania
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 490
wow this is a large post ,u can talk on this subject years. When i alwais got a final satelite (like 50-120$ buyin)70% of time i saw gamblers wining ,so no matter how u play into a MTT ,u just have to use u re donkish style at least oance
Joined: Mar '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 56 (M)
Posts: 7371
Just another session on the poker tables! It is always fascinating to see the ups and downs of the tables, and the cruel way just a couple of cards can hit you for six. Just have to take a step back and come back fighting. Good luck to you
also, it helps to take a break when you see things are going the way you dont want them to go (this comes with experience) because at some point you can prevent going tilt and ull find yourself much less prone to doing things like going miles of ur range (aka shoving with 27o just because u think bb is tight player 
