Joined: Mar '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 55 (M)
Posts: 7371
The first rule of gambling is never to change your mind, because if the reverse happens it puts you on tilt and you try and chase your losses. Your first thought is normally the correct one
Joined: Aug '10
Location: Germany
Age: 52 (M)
Posts: 2219
Luck is a important thing in sport betting and poker, but it is not the same like intinct And Chelsea wons the important match vs. Liverpool, but had yesterday not enough luck to win in the Champions league aginst Atletico Madrid.
Joined: Sep '13
Location: Bosnia and Herzegovina
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 1564
yea poor chelsea, really feel sorry for them.
To play that bravely in the 1st leg, and then just field 6 defenders plus 2 holding mids, at home vs atletico... was really devastated to see such a brave and adventuring team lose but hey thats football, sometimes even if you try really hard and play with 8 defs at home, you still lose.
For me - following 'gut instinct' falls into two distinct categories:
A) Superstition - this is the BAD presentation of instinct. This is where you're following a 'gut feeling' for a superstitious / irrational reason. For example - you've been dealt 72 at poker and the last four times you were dealt this and folded preflop, the flop would have given you monster hands.. So, instead of correctly folding the 7,2, you decide to play it - because you have a good feeling.
Or a more apt example - people who have favourite starting hands and play these hands incorrectly / out of position / etc simply because they believe they're lucky hands.
All of this kind of irrational logic will lead to poor gambling outcomes and generally speak - poor outcomes in life itself!
B) The 'Gut instinct' where you can't quite articulate your thought process as to why you think a certain decision is the correct one, you're not superstitiously attached to the decision, but you also can't quite logically state why it's correct. Split-second decisions are often like this and if you stop and think about the decision too much, you confuse yourself, become indecisive and end up guessing.
Sometimes these rapid, gut-instinct decisions are the correct move.. Simply because of the way your brain works.. Your brain is constantly detecting and acting on patterns. You may not consciously recognise a pattern, but you may naturally act upon the information suggested by the pattern.
That said - this pattern could be something that is not logical- similar to the 7,2 example above, your brain might have built an association with those cards and a strong flop and you may feel inclined to act - hopefully in these circumstances you can recognise why you have a gut-instinct for a decision and why the instinct is invalid.. But, there'll be plenty of situations where you can't immediately recognise that your gut instinct is based on an irrational pattern / logical process - in these cases, your gut will still be wrong, but it may be worth acting on it as a better option than randomly guessing the right decision. Because there'll be other times the pattern you don't recognise, that feeds your gut feeling, is actually based on a rational/logical pattern.
Joined: May '13
Location: Mauritius
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 2688
yep being a Liverpool fan i hate the way Chelsea played but it was obvious they would come and park the bus and sneak a goal, we should have played for a draw if not for Gerrard mistake. It happens and it is just sad it happened top him of all people and near the end but i still have hope that Liverpool will win the league and good riddance for Chelsea who just lost yesterday in the champions league, parking the bus at home lol
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Romania
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 2
Chelsea can't get lucky everytime. sometimes you have to play FOOTBALL, not just parking the bus and wait for a miracle. it's true, they did it many times, they won champions league, but not this time against a coach like Simeone. As for bayern, i'm dissapointed, i lost a good amount betting 1.
Joined: Mar '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 40 (M)
Posts: 1277
You're right, go with your gut, don't over analyse your choices sometimes. I often have the same feels and don't go with them, and I'm often right. But it seems like mentally, if you put even 1p or 1c on a result it will change somehow, as if the betting world and players involve know and are conspiring against you, just you.
Better to have an educated bet than to randomly punt on something. Also gamblers remorse (not betting on a result you think will happen which then does happen) can make you bet more on subsequent betting often bad choices.
And Chelsea wons the important match vs. Liverpool, but had yesterday not enough luck to win in the Champions league aginst Atletico Madrid.
