Joined: Jul '14
Location: Australia
Age: 29 (M)
Posts: 218
AK v KQ $34 pot flop k42 He shoves, I snap call Have him absolutely CRUSHED Turn 4 River Q WHY DOES THIS KEEP HAPPENING TO ME F**K. Every time I get in ahead and it looks like it's the big win I've been waiting for I get fucking rivered. Same thing happened with AA v KK and KK v QQ. For real, all the rivers I've been a 93%+ favourite I perpetually get sucked out on and I'm fucking sick of it. I was a 94.3% chance to be $85 richer and now I have next to nothing. I fucking quit.
That sucks, but it's pretty standard stuff. Besides you didn't know you were favorite by that much, until after the fact; you had TPTK. And why are you playing at levels where a single pot can wipe you out? It's likely that sooner or later you will get wiped out, when you do that.
You should check if you really lose significantly more than 7% of the hands where you are a 93% favorite, by using tracking software. If you are running below all-in EV, you would expect it to even out eventually, unless you bust first. This is one of the reasons why you need to manage your bankroll, so you'll survive a downswing until the next upswing evens things out again, and you can maintain your proper winrate...
Joined: Jul '14
Location: Australia
Age: 29 (M)
Posts: 218
On the topic of me being ahead, I was almost certian I was ahead, and crushing him. There's no way he could have AA from what I had seen him do with AA, you can rule out KK pretty safely (unless its a freakly sick case king hitting the flop), so i made the correct assumption I was ahead, unless he flopped a set but I don't think he would have called $4 pre-flop with 44 or 22. The King came a spade so that rules out me getting flushed against, so all in all I can relatively safely assume that I am a strong favourite. I have HM2, but unsure how to use it/how much data it uses. I do have pretty good bankroll management, no way I'd ever play for my whole bankroll. When i say pretty much nothing I mean down to $10-15. Today has not been good, I've dropped a fair share of my bankroll
And as a type this, I pick up JJ and re-raise, get called, flop comes down 852, I bet, he massively overbet shoves, and I call, he turns over 77. Turn comes a 7.
I honestly want to break my laptop atm. This is actually really really bad.
That's enough poker for today. Considering depositing enough to be able to play on the .10/.25 tables so at least I can cut the number of idiots I play against.
Joined: Jan '13
Location: Canada
Age: 45 (M)
Posts: 1066
I have managed to build a bankroll up to over 100 dollars from Nothing, and lost it all for similar situations. I cannot deposit so now Im paying the price of poor play and not working, this is a lesson I have learned and will in the future not play the way I did in the past. I have been playing really well in MTT freerolls as I am cautious now, waiting until I can afford to deposit again and hopefully apply What I have learned from my mistakes and hopefully slowly make those losses back!
Joined: May '13
Location: Mauritius
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 2688
Hmm you might be playing tougher fields than usual as on the higher stakes you get people playing more hands just to balance their range so they are not caught napping if you get stats for example that they never raise crap and if they raise you would fold, by playing some crap hands in their range , like broadways or even thrash, they balance it so you would not know when they are bluffing or when they have good cards, more data will be needed and you will have to know what range you can go against his!
Joined: Jan '14
Location: Portugal
Age: 57 (M)
Posts: 271
BR management is important, and that's the proof...Try to embrace poker as it is, you're going to get sucked out on so bad sometimes...You have to keep telling yourself that you played well and in the long run you will be way more than 85$ richer. Good luck if you decide to continue playing.
Joined: Sep '13
Location: Bosnia and Herzegovina
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 1564
it was good play, just a bad beat :/ sure 93% looks a lot but that also means that you are gonna lose 70 out of 1k hands with 93% and as we all know random is a bitch... you might as well lose 5 out of 10 93%-7% hands
tldr: i know this might sound like a cliche, but thats... poker. You shoudl be happy you got your money in with 93%-7% and not the other way around and as long as you keep on doing so (getting your money in while being a fav to win a hand) you should be able to make some money along the way.
plus, if you lose half of your bankroll in 1 hand, even if that hand was like 99-1 thats still bad brm because you should never play huge part of your bankroll in a single hand. If you want to play long term, of course.
On the other hand, if you are recreational and just want to have fun, you can still win money (and win it much faster than someone with strict brm) but in reality ur just coin flipping ur money in hope to win quick cash and in case you do win something big, you should cashout asap because there really is no way to play poker profitably without a decent bankroll management in place.
with all that said, all this theorycrafting is nice and its easy for us to talk about it in relaxed manner, but we all know how shitty those situations are and if i were on your place id probably make a similar topic just to vent off a bit. different perspective and all that...
Joined: Jul '14
Location: Finland
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 191
These hands happen. Just be positive.
"Every time I get in ahead and it looks like it's the big win I've been waiting for I get fucking rivered." <- That's because you only remember when something bad happens. You really should play at stakes you can afford. If you come here and complain about your hands you clearly are risking too much.
Joined: Feb '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 59 (M)
Posts: 5712
It happens. There is nothing you can do about it once you are all in you may as we'll just flip a coin. All in on the flop there is still a long way to go. It's a good value call, but unfortunately you lost out along the streets of no hope. Don't be disheartened, next time it'll fall to you to be the winner.
Joined: Jul '14
Location: Australia
Age: 29 (M)
Posts: 218
I spent about 1.5 hours hours grinding and took my table balance from 8 to 19 (account was about 40 at this stage, so the BRM wasn't totally bad. The table buy in accounted for 1/4 of my BR (I'll admit not the best BRM).
On a side-note I should talk to David Slansky on where to cash in my Slansky Dollars....
Joined: May '08
Location: Germany
Age: 59 (M)
Posts: 6786
94% are not 100%. Of cause it sucks, if something like that happens. But one has to expect it from time to time. Thats when the bankrollmanagement comes into play. One should never play that high, that one such beat can wipe out a lot of the bankroll.
Joined: Dec '10
Location: Finland
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 429
Posted by tonespoker: On a side-note I should talk to David Slansky on where to cash in my Slansky Dollars....
I believe I cashed in your Sklansky $s ... top two vs bottom set all-in on turn... running river twice and I hit the fullhouse on both sometimes you run good sometimes you run bad...
