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  28-Jun-20, 21:37   #1
Calculating probability of a downswing 0   
erru9107 
Joined: Oct '11
Location: Sweden
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 1361
I've been reading up a lot on different ways to cope with downswings and such, and I came across an excel table that had some numbers on it that shower the probability of a downswing of X buy-ins from a player with Y roi over Z number of games.

Now, this table was for regular ST SnG, but since I mainly play DoN I tried to create an equivalent table for that game but I just can't get it to work. Can anyone here figure out a way to calculate this?

Example:
Game: Double or Nothing SnG
$1 buy-in
1000 games
Winrate: 57%
ROI: 6.02%

What is the probability that such a player would hit a 10 or 20 or 50 BI downswing over the course of 1000 games? Or even 10k games?

These numbers are just imaginary, only to give you an idea of what I'm looking for.

Thanks in advanced guys!

     
  30-Jun-20, 21:35   #2
  0   
erru9107 
Joined: Oct '11
Location: Sweden
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 1361
I'm toying around with some different ways to approach this and I'm fairly sure I've at least figured out the formula on what the probability is of being down X number of BI's after Z number of games based in ROI (or winrate, you get the same result really). So that's something but I'm still not where I want to be.

     
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