Joined: Oct '11
Location: Sweden
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 1396

I've been reading up a lot on different ways to cope with downswings and such, and I came across an excel table that had some numbers on it that shower the probability of a downswing of X buy-ins from a player with Y roi over Z number of games.

Now, this table was for regular ST SnG, but since I mainly play DoN I tried to create an equivalent table for that game but I just can't get it to work. Can anyone here figure out a way to calculate this?

Example: Game: Double or Nothing SnG $1 buy-in 1000 games Winrate: 57% ROI: 6.02%

What is the probability that such a player would hit a 10 or 20 or 50 BI downswing over the course of 1000 games? Or even 10k games?

These numbers are just imaginary, only to give you an idea of what I'm looking for.

Joined: Oct '11
Location: Sweden
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 1396

I'm toying around with some different ways to approach this and I'm fairly sure I've at least figured out the formula on what the probability is of being down X number of BI's after Z number of games based in ROI (or winrate, you get the same result really). So that's something but I'm still not where I want to be.

Joined: Oct '11
Location: Sweden
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 1396

I've finally managed to solve this. The equation I had to use turned out to be pretty much unsolveable by hand so had to write some code for Julia and run it through there. Something is a little bit wrong tho since with lower rake, my RoR is higher which doesn't make sense to me. We'll see if I can make it work.