Yesterday was no luck when FC blabla won 2-1 against FC gibberish, but the match was much closer than odds indicated, but no money for us. Today we give you another losing bet tip.
Do you guys ever follow those betting tips in the mobmail? well I don't but I see they fail to predict it like 9 out of 10 times.
I am almost getting paranoid and think they give the consumers the wrong picks on purpose so the odds get better for the ones who are winning thus the big guys win more if they bet on it << I know this isn't true, but that explain why they are always wrong.
But I thin the real reason is that the one makes up those picks is just STYOUPIT!
Joined: Dec '10
Location: Denmark
Age: 33 (M)
Posts: 132
Hi Ingrind33,
As you probably know about betting, there is something called variance. If it was easy making money on betting, everyone would just to it.
You take an example with 9 lose out of 10, but you don't seem to mention the periode where i won 9 out of 9 picks in a row? Where most of those odds was high?
Second. I rarely place bets on the low odds markets. Last night it was a match of odds 5.00. Odds 5.00 indicates from the bookmaker, that they believe they have 20 % chance of winning the match, 1 every 5 times. Infact duo too the bookies edge, the real % is probably around 17-18 % chance of odds 5.00 to win.
What i did was, i said that odds was to high. Why? - Because i predict and believe that FC Nordsjælland will win more often than 20 % of the matches against Brøndby. As long as they do that, then i'm winning in the long run.
Let's say FC Nordsjælland will win this match every 4th time. Then we place 100 € each time. In total we spend €400, but win €500 duo to the odds 5.00.
If you expect to win every time on Todays Bettin Pick, then you are a fool. Nothing less, sorry to say. It's an advice where I feel there is value to get. But because of variance and high odds, we sometimes see these runs with many loses, just like we saw a run with 9 wins in a row, with many odds 3.00.
Just to clarify - If i give you 10 Betting Picks, where the average odds is around 3.00. Then i would win every 3rd time approx... - That is 3 wins in every 10 bets. Do you see the math?
Yesterdays game at odds 5.00 was much, much closer that Odds indicated. Brondby only got the win because of a drop of the goalkeeper. Of course i make mistakes sometimes and predict the matches wrong, that's what happens, i'm human.
Both i feel and i can also see, that most of the times i place a bet, i see that odds will fall prior to Kick-off which means that i've been on the right side of the market according to math.
Betting is all about math and % and nothing else. - But thanks for the attention
One thing though, these picks are here for you to take it or not - nothing is mandatory with them - either you accept the fact that Henrik is really doing the research day by day to be able to pick successfully and back it up with knowledge or just simply think they no use for you and that's it. Just as with the ones in the betting threads.
Yes, you gettin' them as a mobmail too, because this way makes easier to get certain members click on the affiliate links/banners. Complaining about the picks could have no real gain here since I am pretty sure Henrik would be in the green with a decent ROI if we would gather all his picks together in a spreadsheet since the inception of these articles...
For me it's about thinking longtime, being patient, getting over variance and using decent bankrollmanagement. Just as in poker. Funny, isn't it?
First of all, I thought the picks are made by the "bettingwebsite" mentioned in the mail, if I knew the picks were made by a BRM insider I would be less rude, because I don't want to offend people personally that is just rude... So My apologies for that!
I don't have any knowledge about sports but I successfully made profit by betting low bets on multiple teams a day. I just picked the teams who get worse odds because they probably are better and will win. So I place 10 bets on different sports. Then after a betting session 9/10 times I end up with profit.
Like is said my knowledge is very poor on sports. I should have more knowledge if I want to bet like you guys do it. That's why I get insecure about the wrong picks.
thanks for the information posted Hendrik
Posted by bowie1984: .... Complaining about the picks could have no real gain here since ...
Complaining about these picks got me an insight view in the mind of Hendrik.
