Joined: May '08
Location: Germany
Age: 61 (M)
Posts: 6787
He has a flush draw and two overcards. So it is not really a bluff. More a semi bluff with a lot of outs. Of cause his overs are useless here, but he can't know that.
Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 42 (M)
Posts: 6483
Posted by shokaku: He has a flush draw and two overcards. So it is not really a bluff. More a semi bluff with a lot of outs. Of cause his overs are useless here, but he can't know that.
True; I agree it is a semi-bluff.. However - doing this kind of thing on a paired board is pretty poor play.
edit: oops - didn't realise chips went in on the flop lol. Yeah - wasn't such a bad play by the villain.
Yeah I agree Shokaku, it was a pretty standard play at these stakes! But since it wasn't a ace high flush draw, I think he should've just called after you re-raised him to 26 on the flop. 4betting there means you only get called by better hands...
Joined: May '09
Location: India
Age: 39 (M)
Posts: 4873
his KQc are favorites against 10/JJ and slight underdog against AK/AQ so wasnt much bad play just hyperaggressive betting. should have realised he has run into a better hand.
Joined: Mar '11
Location: Canada
Age: 46 (M)
Posts: 1490
Ran it through HEM replayer, and he was a 75-25 dog. Perhaps I'm just not at the point where I can 4-bet semi-bluff a draw with 2 overs, but I just don't see how that can be profitable long run.
Assuming he's against a mid pair, he has approximately 15 outs KKKQQQ and 9 clubs, he's approximately a 60-40 to win.
Assuming he's against an overpair or even 2 pair, he has approximately 9 outs, +/- 2% for catching runner runner, he's approximately 36% to win
Against trips he's 25% to win.
It's too late to do the more advanced math in factor the % he'll get opponent to fold, it seems marginal in this spot to do anything but flat my 4-bet.
I'd love to hear some elaboration as it's these kind of situations that often have me baffled as to the correct line.
I tend to be more of a nit with an overall VPIP of around 18 and AF of 3.
Joined: Mar '11
Location: Canada
Age: 46 (M)
Posts: 1490
Posted by Macubaas: Yeah, it looks more like a semi bluff to me but still i must admit it's a really bad play for him considering the dynamic of the hand...
Also you have another important thing that you posted, his statistics but i would like to know what sample of hands was used to elaborate them?
Usually you need around 100 hands to have a good opinion over his game in general...
I think it was around 100 hands not quite sure. I typically don't put much merit into villains stats until I have say, at least 30 hands on them, otherwise I treat them with a little more caution.
