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nov
10

Bookies are Rejoicing in Trumpís Underdog Election Win

Tags: Brexit, Donald Trump, election, Hillary Clinton.
Posted on Thursday, November 10, 2016 by "T".

Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election had bookmakers celebrating as 75% of all stakes were placed on the defeated candidate, Hillary Clinton.

Similar to the betting trends in the Brexit referendum, Clinton led by a margin in nearly all poll surveys. In fact, in terms of popularity vote, Clinton was the clear winner. However, in terms of electoral votes, Trump easily breezed past the 270 points required to make him the elected president.

In Florida, it was suggested that she would win the polls. The stakes there was 1-10 for Clinton and 10-1 shot for Trump. However, as Trump's lead on electoral votes began to take shape, especially on perceived Democrat states like Michigan and Wisconsin, bookies and exchange bettors ran for cover.

UK bookmakers took more than $250 million in bets over the election outcome in the US, thus making it the biggest political event in gambling history, doubling that of the Brexit vote.

Exchange Betfair said that just under $250 million was wagered on the outright market. This was $90 million than was betted on the Brexit vote.

William Hill took $5 million on the US election outcome. "Donald Trump started as a 150-1 no hoper, but was very well backed, albeit in smaller amounts than we accepted for long-time favourite Hillary Clinton," said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe

"This campaign absolutely decimated all previous political betting records and shows what a popular betting subject politics is.

"The US Election statistics reflect almost identically the division of stakes and bets for Brexit.
"The odds on the day for the two candidates were almost identical to the Remain/Leave odds on EU Ref day; Brexit became favourite for the first time just before 2am on EU Ref night, Trump at just after 2am on polling night."

Betting Interest in Politics
The reason why survey polls where nowhere near the results was because polling companies did not explain any margins of error that have been factored into their computations, said Mike Smithson, editor of Politicalbetting.com.

"Most of the punters' action went on Trump in the run up to the vote yesterday, but this was as much to the better odds offered on the underdog," he added.
In the past 70 years, the new era in politics - more volatile and unpredictable - has helped attract new punters who are interested in politics. The upcoming general elections in France and Germany next year will most likely create a big interest in the betting sector. Although they may not be in the scale of the US elections, they will still be big.

In the US, the defeat of the favorite candidate gave positive results for bookies, giving them big pay-outs. A Betfair client wins more than $2 million in payout, whereas Hill's will be paying two bettors more than $100 thousand.

It has been reported that the US election has created unprecedented interest, with a huge number of bets taking place after 10pm on Tuesday up unto the early hours of the next day.

Ed Fulton, political trading spokesman for Sporting Index, said: "Five months of hard work has gone into our election book, covering all of the scandals, midnight suspensions of markets and more.
"The most divisive election in history has also proved to be one of the most volatile."

"While many expected Hillary to walk away with the keys to the White House, we were happy to take her on and that has paid off; the further Trump wins by, the better for us."

Source: http://www.igamingbusiness.com/news/bookies-celebrate-underdog-trumps-election-win

 


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16 comments for "Bookies are Rejoicing in Trumpís Underdog Election Win"

 doubletop77711/11/2016 9:17:31 AM GMT
I have read about a few people winning big on Donald Trump but the bookmakers must have made a lot more than they paid out. In hindsight, Trump was 4/1 in a two horse race, which had to be value.
 damosk11/11/2016 9:40:57 AM GMT
Good value at 4-1 and no doubt bett value if you accumulated the trump bet with a bet on brexit and also something like Leicester city winning the premiership.......... and then this time round being relegated. It's all great fun and a year of crazy occurrences. Good luck with all your upcoming predictions.
 DaCapo7111/11/2016 1:45:15 PM GMT
Really good Odds for the winner, but a bad result... whatever, all Gamblers with the right betting tips have a nice value for her tipps. The new us president was a big surprise in my opinion and the Chance for the first woman as president was gone for a lot of years.
 pajalnick11/11/2016 1:51:07 PM GMT
one man in Russia made a bid to win Trump 1,000,000 rubles (about $ 15,000) with a coefficient of 2.5 ... quite risky bet given that all the media predicted a victory clinton ... read it in the news ... but personally I He was also confident of winning Trump and now regret that did not bet on his victory
 pochui11/11/2016 9:32:42 PM GMT
dunno, day before the election clinton was 1.22 back here and trump just over 4... considering that there was a small margin between them according to polls probably only a bet on trump had any value, but then again even credible sources like my drunk neighbour said that clinton has roughly 90% chance of winning.
 Mober11/11/2016 10:37:56 PM GMT
Some made money again here, from the winning result, but bookies made more,
since more of the gamblers were placing their money on clinton.
I would have gone for trump too, in a bet like this, since he had higher odds.
 bowie198411/12/2016 12:13:04 AM GMT
Honestly just like with Brexit Trump was a true value bet all year long even before getting the party-nomination in the bag, since you could not cherry pick a more anti-establishment candidate even if you would want it - not even Bernie Sanders caused this much headache to his party, so eventually if you followed the regular people opinionated comments on various news outlet sites you could have gotten a pretty steady grip on whats going to be hold any kind of value in this election cycle bettingwise.
His nomination/election was definitely one of them.
 T3ddyKGB11/12/2016 6:59:04 AM GMT
Posted by bowie1984:
so eventually if you followed the regular people opinionated comments on various news outlet sites you could have gotten a pretty steady grip on whats going to be hold any kind of value in this election cycle bettingwise.

depends on the media i guess. the german media was pro clinton, so according to them it was a easy walk for her. i bet in hungary or russia its been quite the opposite.
 dule-vu11/12/2016 12:28:57 PM GMT
well pajalnick this was very low odd on trump,only 2,5!as I writed in other thread,I know that bet at home gived few days before elecetion 3,4 on trump,so dont know was this some russian bookie or where he put his bet,but at least he won!and I am glad that this happend!
 damosk11/12/2016 1:49:45 PM GMT
I guess the next best round of betting will be on stuff like..... how many of the promises that Mr Trump made will not come to fruition, (hmmm! Obamacare already considered). How long he remains (or even if he actually makes it) as president, when he realises that much of his rhetoric is simply rhetoric and he has set up a plan to bankrupt the country and alienate the rest of the world.
 bowie198411/13/2016 12:28:47 AM GMT
Posted by T3ddyKGB:
Posted by bowie1984:
so eventually if you followed the regular people opinionated comments on various news outlet sites you could have gotten a pretty steady grip on whats going to be hold any kind of value in this election cycle bettingwise.

depends on the media i guess. the german media was pro clinton, so according to them it was a easy walk for her. i bet in hungary or russia its been quite the opposite.

No, mainstream media here was pro-clinton as well - so not much surprise there... Except the news outlets controlled by the ruling party/goverment (but the politically right parties here usually pro-republicans since democrats like treating them $hit when they have a prez in office).
I was rather thinking the comments on sites in the US where they did not close comment sections under news articles etc.
Right wingers were really pissed off about a lot of things this year, so their will 2 vote was never in question, but nobody expected that Hillary could not generate a decent turnout for herself in many key battleground states.
 Tony_MON7ANA11/13/2016 8:39:14 AM GMT
The 2016 United States presidential election was undoubtedly an unprecedented event in the political betting history. Donald Trump was rejected by his own party, mocked by the media, riled against by the Establishment, yet he won both the popular (62.9 m - 62.2 m) and the electoral college votes (306 - 232).
 bowie198411/14/2016 12:59:43 AM GMT
Posted by Tony_MON7ANA:
The 2016 United States presidential election was undoubtedly an unprecedented event in the political betting history. Donald Trump was rejected by his own party, mocked by the media, riled against by the Establishment, yet he won both the popular (62.9 m - 62.2 m) and the electoral college votes (306 - 232).

Hillary won the popular vote, almost all the remaining uncounted ballots are from California. Her grip on the pop vote is not gonna tighten with them. Find better news sources.
 Tony_MON7ANA11/14/2016 8:40:29 AM GMT
The 2016 United States presidential election was undoubtedly an unprecedented event in the US political history. Donald Trump was rejected by his own party, mocked by the media, riled against by the Establishment, yet he won both the popular (62.9 m - 62.2 m) and the electoral college votes (306 - 232).

It seems I was misinformed with regard to the popular vote yesterday.
According to the Associated Press Hillary Clinton leads the popular votes against Donald Trump as of today. It is not the first case that the United States presidential election winner lost the collective popular vote.
 dule-vu11/14/2016 1:07:49 PM GMT
yesterday he confirmed that he will build wall on board with mexico,will kick out all immigrants,but we will see what will happen in future with every of his promises!but its important that he start from next year to have better realtion with all countries in world!
 Tony_MON7ANA11/16/2016 9:43:09 AM GMT
President-elect Donald Trump and his family made an appearance on 60 Minutes on CBS News the other day. Trump talked his key campaign promises. It was an interesting program to watch.

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