Joined: Mar '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 45 (M)
Posts: 192
I sometimes find myself not thinking properly after consecutive great hands and you experienced players are going to help. The situation is this......
Finally I get a great hand say QQ... I bet big and it pays off after hitting on the flop. Several hands later I get AK.... again I bet big, maybe hit the K and again it pays off. Then around a few blinds later I get rockets and it has been raised big before getting to me. For some reason i find myself questioning the randomness of the online game and is it possible for me to hit big again. This normally leads to my judgment being clouded and not sure of what to do. I don't want to lose the money I have made but I don't want to fold my rockets and I don't want to call to see a scary flop then fold and I start thinking about low trips and it just confuses my game because several experiences I have had of this are that when you get paid big a couple of times eventually I'm going to get a great hand that will make me lose big.
Your experience could be invaluable to fixing my game.
This thread was inspired by TheFodz folding rockets.
Joined: Mar '08
Location: Germany
Age: 40 (M)
Posts: 305
you just have to tell yourself that on the long run you will make profit, even if you loose with pockets AA or pocket KK or you get one bad beat after another i mean thats poker. you always have to keep in mind that you don't play for one single session but for your overall session so for all your games as a whole. and if you are a good player you will make + in the end even if you get busted by worse cards once in a while. i know how hard bad beats can hit u but you have to keep in mind that the fish wonthis time but he will get broke soon enough with his play and u should keep playing ur A-game and play how u think is best for your Bankroll
Joined: Jan '08
Location: Brazil
Age: 44 (M)
Posts: 1788
Keef, I can relate to your question and many times I have lost big because of this. Let´s say I get a great hand and double my stack, no problem there, best hand won, no big deal. Immediately after, another great hand, boom, another sweet double up. Now, this is where it becomes dangerous.
We all know that the RNG is to serve all players and give all players an equal chance, right? (Random Number Generator). Well, in order for this RNG to fulfill it´s only purpose, everyone must win at some point. No, I´m not saying it is rigged and that after 2 great consecutive hands you will lose on the third, but just bear in mind that IT CAN HAPPEN, even with rockets.
Why do I say this? Many times I have lost great amounts on 3rd or 4th consecutive great hands, like AA, KK. Mainly because you are so overconfident and apparently "on a great streak", that it seems almost impossible to lose with such great hand.
So my suggestion, based on personal experience is to be very very careful with great consecutive hands. An alternative I found for this is to limp in, or simply mini-raise by the time you get your 3rd, 4th consecutive and just test out the opponents for any possible tells on their game without commiting too much.
By the end of the day, the more people who win, the more balanced it is, the better the rake for the house, so just keep in mind that you are not invincible many times in a row and that yes, AA can be just another pair.
lets look at it stitistically, say you have it all in the middle with aces against a lower pair, your about 80% to win, wo you are 8/10 to win that first double up, to win twice in a row you are .8 x.8. making you .64 to win two in a row. to win three in a row even as a big favourite like AA preflop you are only .512, four times in a row you drop down to as little as .4069 to win all four consequtively.
This will show you the reason why eventually you get busted, not because your luck is bad or because the poker rooms hate you but because statisitically it should happen. The only way to get around this is to leave a table and join another when you start worrying about your AA preflop. if you have four times what you bought in for and your going to question how you play your hands because of it its time to move tables, I hope seeing the numbers of it makes you feel better
Joined: Mar '08
Location: Finland
Age: 34 (M)
Posts: 3
I'm not 100% sure about this, but I think every hand is a single case, not a pre-made hit/no-hit. I've heard that there are a whole lot of things (like weather, I've heard...) that can affect what cards come to the table. But as you can't surely know whether you're winning or not, but you have roughly 80% chance to win against any hand (against AA it would be a split, though. But you would still win half of the blinds), there is no reason laying AA down pre-flop. You are leading any other hand by a mile and you've a great chance of making some nice money. There is no point being afraid of bad beat, because you can't make any money if you're not willing to take any sort of "risk". Even though you would lose once because of the bad beat, you will make money in the long run with AA. So don't ever fold it pre-flop, unless you feel sorry for other players losing their money.
Joined: Mar '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 45 (M)
Posts: 192
Invaluable information right enough. Thanks guys. The RNG is the very thing that leaves my judgement clouded. I think in future I might try a small raise, limp to see who has what after consecutive big wins or even change table. I even sometimes find the reverse of that making my play quite hasty and sometimes leaves me bust or smiling. If I lose consecutive big hands I start hammering down on draws and flushes to find when It's my shot in the RNG.
The reason I posted this thread was that I felt that it took part of the theory of what I have been reading to succed at poker but I will probably get over this.
Thanks for the stats and info, I shall try and use them wisely.
