Joined: Feb '09
Location: Belgium
Age: 34 (M)
Posts: 686
Hell yeah SuperNoob, you are totally right and i like your way of statistic reasoning because this is the strongest argument you can bring here (that's what i tried to explain with my example of 55% win, but you brought some good precision ^^).
@Retribution : Traffic is not that good at cake (i miss Full tilt daaaaaaamn it), so multitable is mostly a mix of standard sng's and DoN's. Its ridiculous since the only 6 players table you can find at 2 or 1$ stake are pure gambling tables (like 500 chips stack super turbo blind or even worse : everyone all in at every turn --> this is called "poker"
And i dont know if someone knows when the statistics of the rake are updated on the site of rakeback of BRM (should we see an update daily or weekly ?). Because for now i have no update of my rakeback statistics and i'd like to be sure that my rakeback is well activated.
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 1859
@ Tchungpo - I'd suggest you once you have the BR to play $5s and up,move to IPoker with a good rakeback deal and grind them there. Traffic is much better than at cake and you can get a higher rakeback % if you find the right affiliate (I get 55% there (if I actually played there at all,lol)),I heard of some even getting 70%
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Canada
Age: 39 (M)
Posts: 1660
I'm assuming in order to get 70% that would include not only the rake back that you got through an affiliate but also bonus clearing and other promotions right? That's some hefty rake back. Also I thought there was no real rakeback on iPoker, they stopped offering and did VIP stuff instead?
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Germany
Age: 31 (M)
Posts: 1859
Posted by Arithmajik: I'm assuming in order to get 70% that would include not only the rake back that you got through an affiliate but also bonus clearing and other promotions right? That's some hefty rake back. Also I thought there was no real rakeback on iPoker, they stopped offering and did VIP stuff instead?
Right,there aren't official rakeback deals because IPoker forbids them. However you can get them through some affiliates that specificly work with a few ipoker skins. Idk about other deals,my 55% is flat rakeback,bonuses are deducted before rakeback payment is made though,so 55% is all I can get (except if you calculate the VIP points you earn as value too,then it's more like 60% total rakeback)
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Canada
Age: 39 (M)
Posts: 1660
Thanks for the clarification, man 55% on the iPoker network is a great rate. I'm obviously going to have to go do some browsing, the best flat return rate I've seen there so far was 30% (Not sure if bonuses were deducted first on this one though). Is that offer still available that you know of?
Joined: Jan '09
Location: Italy
Age: 53 (M)
Posts: 3871
Posted by Tchungpo: What is the ROI i might expect from playing DoN ? What should be the minimum stack (number of buyins) to start playing at the 3.3$ or less limit ?
TchungPo
I have played I guess around 10K DoNs on different rooms: I built a decent roll this way
1) my ROI went from 6% to 8% in the different rooms I played 2) I'd suggest 50 buyins but if you are a decent player at DONs you could try with 30 buyins (expecially at lower levels)
My opinion: - it's not real poker - they are easy to multitable (once you played lets say 2-3K you act like a bot) - now find them really boring
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Canada
Age: 39 (M)
Posts: 1660
Posted by magatt966:
Posted by Tchungpo: What is the ROI i might expect from playing DoN ? What should be the minimum stack (number of buyins) to start playing at the 3.3$ or less limit ?
TchungPo
I have played I guess around 10K DoNs on different rooms: I built a decent roll this way
1) my ROI went from 6% to 8% in the different rooms I played 2) I'd suggest 50 buyins but if you are a decent player at DONs you could try with 30 buyins (expecially at lower levels)
My opinion: - it's not real poker - they are easy to multitable (once you played lets say 2-3K you act like a bot) - now find them really boring
hope this help
Is that a decent ROI, I'm pretty sure I'm usually around 8% or so. But I haven't calculated in a bit (no tracker sadly). Also what sample size do you need to be acceptably accurate for DoN ROI?
Also just out of curiousity: What would you consider real poker? These games use lots of the same strategy as others, and they're great for building a roll. I love them personally, lower variance, high turnover so I can easily take breaks when I want unlike MTT's.
Joined: Jan '09
Location: Italy
Age: 53 (M)
Posts: 3871
Posted by Arithmajik: Also just out of curiousity: What would you consider real poker? These games use lots of the same strategy as others, and they're great for building a roll. I love them personally, lower variance, high turnover so I can easily take breaks when I want unlike MTT's.
I used to love Dons as well, not anymore.
Agree with you about building a roll with dons and agree about similar strategy used here and other games (in short words tight at the beginning and gradually opening your range depending on the ratio stack/blinds and then push or fold).
But there are situations in which is better not to play any hand at all (even if you are dealt AA or KK) because you are already very likely to get ITM and it's a nonsense collecting all the chips at the table because of the prizes structure (half player are rewarded with the same money); it doesn't happens in any other pokergame (cash, sng or MTT) where you have to bust out every other oppos to be first and go for biggest prize (Sng, MTT) or get their whole stacks (cashgame). This is what I meant with the words "no real poker", nowadays it would be very sad and disappointing to me laying down monster hands preflop (I did it often and still think it was the right move to do in those situations)
Also take in consideration collusion: it's easy colluding in Dons because of prizes structure and a lot players do it. When I used to play dons on Cakepoker, for example, chat was not available at DoNs tables: support answered me it was due to lot of complaint coming from players because of, let's say"situational" or "occasional" collusion generated from stack sizes (a sort of explicit collusion, a bit (not much) different from the unavoidable implicit one . Of course regular colluders use other means to communicate each others.
Variance is a bit lower but it's always around the corner: going back to bankroll management question I suggest (if you are rolled 30x or less) to get down into lower limits waiting for Lady Variance f**k off. At least it is what I did and it worked fine expecially when I started with no deposit bonuses.
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Canada
Age: 39 (M)
Posts: 1660
Well I definitely can't dispute that collusion is far more effective (and thus more likely) in the DoN's. Which is why it's probably a good idea to keep track of your ROI so you can make a change if you're not doing as well as you "should" be.
Joined: May '09
Location: India
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Posts: 4873
Posted by Arithmajik: Any thoughts on sample size?
for DONs sample size of around 2500 has 95% chance of giving your true win rate with error of +/- 2% 500 has 95% chance of giving your true win rate with error of +/- 4%
* ofcourse with assumption that sample is representative
Joined: Jan '09
Location: Italy
Age: 53 (M)
Posts: 3871
Posted by SuperNoob:
Posted by Arithmajik: Any thoughts on sample size?
for DONs sample size of around 2500 has 95% chance of giving your true win rate with error of +/- 2% 500 has 95% chance of giving your true win rate with error of +/- 4%
* ofcourse with assumption that sample is representative
interesting. would really like to know something more about the calculation of the percentage you wrote down.
Joined: May '09
Location: India
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 4873
they are standard limitations of sample size for a given probability ( taken as 55% here ) the major problem is getting a representative sample which is almost never possible in analysis of winrates, so all you get are just assumptions
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Canada
Age: 39 (M)
Posts: 1660
Hooey, that sure is some sample size. I have a lot more grinding to do before I can make a reasonable estimate of my ROI. It's surprising how big the margin of error is, 2 - 4% can definitely make a big difference (profit vs. loss for many).
(i miss Full tilt daaaaaaamn it), so multitable is mostly a mix of standard sng's and DoN's. Its ridiculous since the only 6 players table you can find at 2 or 1$ stake are pure gambling tables (like 500 chips stack super turbo blind or even worse : everyone all in at every turn --> this is called "poker" 
